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Old 07-17-2020, 08:55 AM
  #1471  
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Originally Posted by Firefighterpilo View Post
Yeah I guess it’s just coincidence that Covid cases were on the decline nationwide. Then national mass protests and looting erupted, quickly followed by a large spike in cases and infection. You are right though of course, there is no common sense correlation I just must be racist 🙄
If the protests were the primary cause of the spike, then why are cases spiking mostly in areas that had virtually no protests? Why aren't New York, or San Francisco, or Oakland, all experiencing surges? If protests were a significant driver of infections, you'd expect to see catastrophe in cities that saw heavy protesting, but that hasn't happened. Instead you're seeing spikes in a lot of rural areas that previously had been mostly spared.

That said, it has been slightly infuriating to listen to health officials effectively condemn all gatherings but give the protests a free pass, as it were. Then again, the protests all took place outside, and a large percentage of people did wear masks, so that probably helped reduce the spread of cases somewhat. I saw the protests first-hand in Oakland and I'd say 80% of people were masked.

White or black, left or right, Trump supporter or sane person, it doesn't matter. If everyone just wore a damn mask, we could shut this virus down. The head of the CDC, Redfield, said exactly this just the other day. But no, we're too busy arguing about politics. Saw one guy on the news protesting ,"I can't breathe with a mask on!!" Really dude? Then you probably should be at home with supplemental oxygen. Idiots.
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Old 07-17-2020, 09:08 AM
  #1472  
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thread drift alert

back to thread topic of TSA Numbers

July 16 reflected 25.99% of 2019. Call it 26%

need to get out of that 25-30% zone

fingers crossed
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Old 07-17-2020, 10:04 AM
  #1473  
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Originally Posted by senecacaptain View Post
thread drift alert

back to thread topic of TSA Numbers

July 16 reflected 25.99% of 2019. Call it 26%

need to get out of that 25-30% zone

fingers crossed
I still wish we could segregate out domestic from international in the historical figures. Because I don’t think domestic is coming back anytime soon. Heck, it doesn’t even look like Hawaii flying will be back before Fall...
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Old 07-17-2020, 04:40 PM
  #1474  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
I still wish we could segregate out domestic from international in the historical figures. Because I don’t think domestic is coming back anytime soon. Heck, it doesn’t even look like Hawaii flying will be back before Fall...
Yeah, and another problem is that plenty of domestic flying connects to intl flying, ie PHX LAX HKG, and so on. Or CID ORD LHR. And so on.

But right now, most Americans aren't legally allowed to travel to a vast portion of the globe. Right now I'd usually be bumming around Europe and seeing friends in the UK. I have to think international tourist travel originating in the US is close to zero...which affects domestic flying as well.

Ugh. To put it lightly.
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Old 07-17-2020, 05:10 PM
  #1475  
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I don’t know how to setup the third order polynomial trend line. Can you post an update?

Originally Posted by bradthepilot View Post
Easy. Just do a plot, day by day, of the 2020 numbers vs 2019 as a percentage since April 14. You can either do the math by hand at that point, or if you're using Excel plot a third order polynomial trend line. Either one will show that there has in fact been an inflection point (if you plot the trend line, you'll note that it reverses direction and starts falling downward in the future which is indicative of a second inflection point).

A chart that looks at weekly averages with a third order poly trend line also reflects this change :

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Old 07-17-2020, 06:32 PM
  #1476  
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Originally Posted by Turbosina View Post
Yeah, and another problem is that plenty of domestic flying connects to intl flying, ie PHX LAX HKG, and so on. Or CID ORD LHR. And so on.

But right now, most Americans aren't legally allowed to travel to a vast portion of the globe. Right now I'd usually be bumming around Europe and seeing friends in the UK. I have to think international tourist travel originating in the US is close to zero...which affects domestic flying as well.

Ugh. To put it lightly.
plus the TSA numbers are just body counts. we have no idea if the airlines are making any money or if those PAX are flying on bargain basement special ticketd

need to climb out of the scud layer at 25-30%
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Old 07-17-2020, 06:55 PM
  #1477  
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Originally Posted by Firefighterpilo View Post
Yeah I guess it’s just coincidence that Covid cases were on the decline nationwide. Then national mass protests and looting erupted, quickly followed by a large spike in cases and infection. You are right though of course, there is no common sense correlation I just must be racist 🙄
wasn’t responding to your post, so no idea what you’re talking about.
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Old 07-18-2020, 03:52 AM
  #1478  
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I was told that our average ticket price is about 50% of pre covid.
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Old 07-18-2020, 07:37 PM
  #1479  
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Originally Posted by Ciceda View Post
Yes, but you're such a left wing kook that you wouldn't believe it any way so I will not waste my energy. Leaked emails show that when the riots started democrat's were already developing a media strategy to try to deflect blame for the inevitable COVID spike away from those mass gatherings to Churches, beaches, and taverns. Especially those located in the Red states (they are still ignoring the spike in California) .
How do you know I’m a left wing kook? You guys are completely hopeless huh? It’s a pandemic, it doesn’t care if you’re left or right genius.
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Old 07-18-2020, 07:50 PM
  #1480  
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Originally Posted by Knobcrk1 View Post
How do you know I’m a left wing kook? You guys are completely hopeless huh? It’s a pandemic, it doesn’t care if you’re left or right genius.
ummm, by reading your frantic posts on this forum. How else?
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