TSA numbers above 100k seven days in row
07-16-2020, 07:35 AM
#1451
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,565
Originally Posted by Downtime
Yeah so those side effects were minor enough they allowed it to move forward. It does seems we will have one or more vaccines next year. The bigger questions will be assuming the manufacturers have the hundreds of millions of dollars will we do better then we did with testing or remedesvir who knows.
The rate of side effects INCREASED between the first and second immunizations. That might be good - implying that antibodies were being quickly formed. That might be bad, implying that vaccine enhancement might be at risk:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20Y1GZ
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_8
https://cvi.asm.org/content/23/3/189
In 1967, infants and toddlers immunized with a formalin-inactivated vaccine against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) experienced an enhanced form of RSV disease characterized by high fever, bronchopneumonia, and wheezing when they became infected with wild-type virus in the community. Hospitalizations were frequent, and two immunized toddlers died upon infection with wild-type RSV. The enhanced disease was initially characterized as a “peribronchiolar monocytic infiltration with some excess in eosinophils.” Decades of research defined enhanced RSV disease (ERD) as the result of immunization with antigens not processed in the cytoplasm, resulting in a nonprotective antibody response and CD4+ T helper priming in the absence of cytotoxic T lymphocytes. This response to vaccination led to a pathogenic Th2 memory response with eosinophil and immune complex deposition in the lungs after RSV infection
This is not a trivial concern, and a 15 person study does little to alleviate such a concern. Not saying vaccines are bad or that we shouldn’t be searching for one. Just saying it’s very early days and this tiny study doesn’t deserve the hype (or the stock boost) it is getting.
07-16-2020, 03:15 PM
#1452
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,377
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Minor enough to allow it to move forward when you are testing a group (or three groups) of fifteen gives no guarantees whatsoever for a group of a thousand, far less for 330 million. The point is the hype that makes people think this is really significant - and drove a spike in Stock price - was unwarranted.
The rate of side effects INCREASED between the first and second immunizations. That might be good - implying that antibodies were being quickly formed. That might be bad, implying that vaccine enhancement might be at risk:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20Y1GZ
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_8
https://cvi.asm.org/content/23/3/189
This is not a trivial concern, and a 15 person study does little to alleviate such a concern. Not saying vaccines are bad or that we shouldn’t be searching for one. Just saying it’s very early days and this tiny study doesn’t deserve the hype (or the stock boost) it is getting.
The rate of side effects INCREASED between the first and second immunizations. That might be good - implying that antibodies were being quickly formed. That might be bad, implying that vaccine enhancement might be at risk:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN20Y1GZ
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/706717_8
https://cvi.asm.org/content/23/3/189
This is not a trivial concern, and a 15 person study does little to alleviate such a concern. Not saying vaccines are bad or that we shouldn’t be searching for one. Just saying it’s very early days and this tiny study doesn’t deserve the hype (or the stock boost) it is getting.
It's not as much trial and error today, we know how things work on the molecular level now. Still plenty of complexity and opportunity for things to go wrong in the human body but it's not as much fumbling around in the dark as it used to be.
07-16-2020, 03:22 PM
#1453
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,565
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Referencing 50-year old pharma programs is like referencing DC-6's and Electra's in a discussion about modern airline aviation safety. You or I might drive a 67 GTO for fun, but most of us wouldn't let our 16 year-old student driver learn in one today.
It's not as much trial and error today, we know how things work on the molecular level now. Still plenty of complexity and opportunity for things to go wrong in the human body but it's not as much fumbling around in the dark as it used to be.
It's not as much trial and error today, we know how things work on the molecular level now. Still plenty of complexity and opportunity for things to go wrong in the human body but it's not as much fumbling around in the dark as it used to be.
And as the Medscape article indicates, coronavirus vaccines have been troublesome in regard to this issue in the past:
Vaccine Enhancement of Disease
The greatest fear among vaccinologists is the creation of a vaccine that is not only ineffective, but which exacerbates disease. Unfortunately, CoV vaccines have a history of enhancing disease, notably with feline CoVs.[80,125] While several mechanisms may exist, the best understood is antibody-mediated entry of virus into cells via immunoglobulin Fc receptors. This has been demonstrated to occur for the SARS-CoV S protein in human B-cell lines,[126] however, the same group showed that SARS-CoV S protein-vaccinated animals showed no signs of enhanced lung pathology or hepatitis, and indeed that the viral load was reduced following challenge with SARS-CoV; although hamsters may not respond in a way similar to humans immunologically.[126]
The greatest fear among vaccinologists is the creation of a vaccine that is not only ineffective, but which exacerbates disease. Unfortunately, CoV vaccines have a history of enhancing disease, notably with feline CoVs.[80,125] While several mechanisms may exist, the best understood is antibody-mediated entry of virus into cells via immunoglobulin Fc receptors. This has been demonstrated to occur for the SARS-CoV S protein in human B-cell lines,[126] however, the same group showed that SARS-CoV S protein-vaccinated animals showed no signs of enhanced lung pathology or hepatitis, and indeed that the viral load was reduced following challenge with SARS-CoV; although hamsters may not respond in a way similar to humans immunologically.[126]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-020-0323-4
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7161485/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3209347/
07-16-2020, 04:28 PM
#1454
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
Pilots tend to be binary thinkers. Switches are ON or OFF. You are cleared to land, or not cleared to land. You are IMC, or VMC. You are acting as PIC, or you are not acting as PIC.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.
07-16-2020, 05:21 PM
#1455
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 1,030
Originally Posted by senecacaptain
Pilots tend to be binary thinkers. Switches are ON or OFF. You are cleared to land, or not cleared to land. You are IMC, or VMC. You are acting as PIC, or you are not acting as PIC.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.
Wishful thinking. The only reason why this is prolonged is because we didn’t take it seriously. The only way to stop this is masks and social distancing as well as lockdowns. States like NJ that are populated with heavy cases have gotten it under control with strict requirements. The country has obviously failed so far as we’re still in the first wave but now that places are closing down again maybe people will take it more seriously. You can’t have an economy until infection rates are under control, there’s no other way. Good luck trying to get people to take a vaccine if it ever comes. There has to be temporary economic sacrifices in order to not have a full on depression. The sooner people accept this the quicker we will come out of it. The flight loads would have been much better by now as well if we had actual mandates and lockdowns like in other countries.
07-16-2020, 06:09 PM
#1456
Banned
Joined APC: Oct 2019
Posts: 116
Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
Wishful thinking. The only reason why this is prolonged is because we didn’t take it seriously. The only way to stop this is masks and social distancing as well as lockdowns. States like NJ that are populated with heavy cases have gotten it under control with strict requirements. The country has obviously failed so far as we’re still in the first wave but now that places are closing down again maybe people will take it more seriously. You can’t have an economy until infection rates are under control, there’s no other way. Good luck trying to get people to take a vaccine if it ever comes. There has to be temporary economic sacrifices in order to not have a full on depression. The sooner people accept this the quicker we will come out of it. The flight loads would have been much better by now as well if we had actual mandates and lockdowns like in other countries.
07-16-2020, 06:11 PM
#1457
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2018
Position: Sitting
Posts: 500
Originally Posted by Knobcrk1
Wishful thinking. The only reason why this is prolonged is because we didn’t take it seriously. The only way to stop this is masks and social distancing as well as lockdowns. States like NJ that are populated with heavy cases have gotten it under control with strict requirements. The country has obviously failed so far as we’re still in the first wave but now that places are closing down again maybe people will take it more seriously. You can’t have an economy until infection rates are under control, there’s no other way. Good luck trying to get people to take a vaccine if it ever comes. There has to be temporary economic sacrifices in order to not have a full on depression. The sooner people accept this the quicker we will come out of it. The flight loads would have been much better by now as well if we had actual mandates and lockdowns like in other countries.
07-16-2020, 06:20 PM
#1458
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 66
From July 14, 2020.
“This review included two case studies out today, one from JAMA, showing that adherence to universal masking policies reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a Boston hospital system, and one from CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), showing that wearing a mask prevented the spread of infection from two hair stylists to their customers in Missouri.”
-and-
“ The finding adds to a growing body of evidence that cloth face coverings provide source control – that is, they help prevent the person wearing the mask from spreading COVID-19 to others. The main protection individuals gain from masking occurs when others in their communities also wear face coverings.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2768532
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...ear-masks.html
“This review included two case studies out today, one from JAMA, showing that adherence to universal masking policies reduced SARS-CoV-2 transmission within a Boston hospital system, and one from CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR), showing that wearing a mask prevented the spread of infection from two hair stylists to their customers in Missouri.”
-and-
“ The finding adds to a growing body of evidence that cloth face coverings provide source control – that is, they help prevent the person wearing the mask from spreading COVID-19 to others. The main protection individuals gain from masking occurs when others in their communities also wear face coverings.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...rticle/2768532
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2...ear-masks.html
07-16-2020, 08:13 PM
#1459
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
Originally Posted by Ciceda
The spikes are directly correlated with the mass protests AND Memorial Weekend travelers from New York and New Jersey traveling around the country to places like Florida, Texas, Nevada, and Arizona spreading it to the locals and other travelers like wild fire. They should have just kept everybody in New York and everything would be better (except for the mass spread of the disease through the protesters)
This is not "protestors fault" or "NY, NJ fault"
07-17-2020, 04:54 AM
#1460
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
This is a good post. This situation is different. There are no sporting events. There are no shows, conferences or expos. Business is generally down across the board. Once the virus threat is over it will take time for things to ramp back up again.
Originally Posted by senecacaptain
Pilots tend to be binary thinkers. Switches are ON or OFF. You are cleared to land, or not cleared to land. You are IMC, or VMC. You are acting as PIC, or you are not acting as PIC.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.
With that said, many of us think a vaccine = air travel rapidly returns to pre-COVID levels. Vaccine = Normal again.
Not so sure about that. Until public confidence resumes, business travel returns, international is back, and major destinations, trade shows (business travel), and events are back, I am not sure what the future holds boys. If school resumes partially home school, or fully home school (school from home), guess what, corporate mom or dad ain't doing any business trips while Junior is home. Or unlikely. Summer mid-way point was July 10. Any "pent up demand" should have been blasted open in early summer. Not sure we saw that. School year summer is basically over in 6 weeks (August 24ish).
The big corporate/business travel push historically is Sept-November as year-end goals and targets are finished out and year end wrap-ups happen. I am concerned what those numbers will look like.
There are too many unknowns and TBDs right now.
I would be happy with 50% TSA numbers. We are hovering at 25% or less all summer. We didn't break 20% until June 14.
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