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Old 05-25-2020, 05:26 AM
  #451  
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Originally Posted by md11pilot11 View Post
Let see if we can hit 370,000 for Sunday. I also have a super optimistic guess of 400,000 possible.


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Off by 100k BUT the relative percentage YOY was 12.9%. Still looking like a nice gentle climb.
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Old 05-25-2020, 05:45 AM
  #452  
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The numbers that come out tomorrow for today (5/25) should be better, I'm predicting 360,000 as people get home from the holiday weekend. I'm also predicting a pretty rosy picture for the following day 5/26 of passing 400,000. This is based on the percentage trends and looking at passenger load factors I'm seeing from states that have eased restrictions. Many flights on 5/26 have seat availability that is showing negative, which means that airlines are going to have to start adding routes back very quickly (which is obviously hard to do when they build their lines so far in advance).

I'm seeing later this week, Wednesday and Thursday numbers won't look nearly as good, but Monday and Tuesday is solid at this point.
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Old 05-25-2020, 06:00 AM
  #453  
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Only about a 5% improvement from a week ago and now up to about 12.9% of last year’s same weekday total.
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Old 05-25-2020, 06:05 AM
  #454  
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyDelta View Post
Off by 100k BUT the relative percentage YOY was 12.9%. Still looking like a nice gentle climb.

I wasn’t quite thinking right, I shift my numbers by 1 day. But, 12.9% is still good nothing wrong with some positive news!


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Old 05-25-2020, 06:10 AM
  #455  
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Originally Posted by flypilot View Post
The numbers that come out tomorrow for today (5/25) should be better, I'm predicting 360,000 as people get home from the holiday weekend. I'm also predicting a pretty rosy picture for the following day 5/26 of passing 400,000. This is based on the percentage trends and looking at passenger load factors I'm seeing from states that have eased restrictions. Many flights on 5/26 have seat availability that is showing negative, which means that airlines are going to have to start adding routes back very quickly (which is obviously hard to do when they build their lines so far in advance).

I'm seeing later this week, Wednesday and Thursday numbers won't look nearly as good, but Monday and Tuesday is solid at this point.

I agree with this, let’s hope your correct!


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Old 05-25-2020, 06:10 AM
  #456  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post


Only about a 5% improvement from a week ago and now up to about 12.9% of last year’s same weekday total.

Only 5% but last years numbers fell to 79% week to week for the same days. So I consider that a 26% COVID rebound.


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Old 05-25-2020, 06:13 AM
  #457  
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Originally Posted by CX500T View Post
I'm with GF on this. Look at the median age of fatalities in most states.

Isolate the vulnerable. Let the rest of us get on with life.
And it isn’t just ‘most states’, it is internationally as well. And a disproportionate percentage of the younger people who did get serious cases were healthcare workers in those nursing homes which, unlike hospitals, had never been designed with the capability of strict isolation, far less isolation sufficient for a Biosafety level 3 or 4 organism.

The decision by certain governors to send known contagious people to these nursing homes may or may have not been legal, I’m no constitutional scholar, but it was certainly the WRONG decision, and whether or not it was within the limits of their police power it unquestionably has incurred a huge civil liability for the taxpayers of those states. And enough people died in those nursing homes - thousands of people - that it will almost certainly be a class action suit attracting the most capable lawyers for the families of the deceased. And this is a litigious society. I mean, we have sued Johnson and Johnson into submission over baby powder. Does anyone seriously think the lawyers are going to let NY and NJ skate over this?
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Old 05-25-2020, 06:17 AM
  #458  
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
And it isn’t just ‘most states’, it is internationally as well. And a disproportionate percentage of the younger people who did get serious cases were healthcare workers in those nursing homes which, unlike hospitals, had never been designed with the capability of strict isolation, far less isolation sufficient for a Biosafety level 3 or 4 organism.

The decision by certain governors to send known contagious people to these nursing homes may or may have not been legal, I’m no constitutional scholar, but it was certainly the WRONG decision, and whether or not it was within the limits of their police power it unquestionably has incurred a huge civil liability for the taxpayers of those states. And enough people died in those nursing homes - thousands of people - that it will almost certainly be a class action suit attracting the most capable lawyers for the families of the deceased. And this is a litigious society. I mean, we have sued Johnson and Johnson into submission over baby powder. Does anyone seriously think the lawyers are going to let NY and NJ skate over this?
If the lawyers do let them skate, it’ll be the largest professional courtesy in history.
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Old 05-25-2020, 06:57 AM
  #459  
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Originally Posted by galaxy flyer View Post
If the lawyers do let them skate, it’ll be the largest professional courtesy in history.
Professional courtesy? I doubt it, no honor among thieves...
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:02 AM
  #460  
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Tuesdays characteristically have a drop in pax loads, however looking at my flights for tomorrow, every single one of them is full. It's an anecdotal spot check but it's pleasing to see none the less. Most likely the result of travelers going home after the end of a 3-day holiday weekend combined with the accelerating effects of the economy being reopened.

Interestingly, this Memorial Day Saturday to Sunday didn't match the one-year-prior motion of a slight drop in pax loads. Instead this past Sat-Sun saw a slight rise in numbers, breaking from the near perfect mirroring of the rise and fall of loads from a year prior. My optimistic mind hopes that's a sign of things to come.
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