Parson Bayes strikes again and nobody learns from it.

Israel is currently trending to reach a record number of cases. That's not surprising as the people are reaching the end of the 3rd antibody half life, when the vaccine is no longer neutralizing without a booster.

The math is there are now more hospitalized in Israel in August 2021 than there were in August 2020. And 60% of those are vaccinated. Not exactly "out of context."

78% fully vaccinated. That's a large majority (12 and over, young kids are not vaccinated nor do they usually get severe covid so we'll ignore them).

59% of hospitalizations occur in the 78% vaccinated.

So 41% of hospitalizations occur in the 22% not vaccinated.

Normalized hospitalization rates...

Vaccinated: 0.76
Un-vaccinated: 1.86


Of the 59% vaccinated hospitalizations, 87% of those were 60 or older.

Again, unknown whether the uptick is due to waning efficacy, delta, or both. Worth pointing out that IL started wholesale vaccination very early, so they might be experiencing antibody drop-off effects before the rest of us. Of course they started with their old folks.



https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021...t-defeat-delta

Now, if they would only publish the hospitalization rate of unvaccinated but previously infected and recovered…

I think everybody knows that's pretty low, although who knows how delta behaves vs. natural immunity.

IMO it would be prudent to conduct trials on previously-infected people to observe their immunity efficacy and duration... as well as gain data on individual variability which is probably higher than for vaccine induced immunity.With some clinical data they could reasonably grant natural immunity the same privileges as vaccine-induced immunity.

But until they do that, vaccines have the edge because bureaucrats have hard data to hang their hats on.

More data from Israel (useful because of high vaccination rates, early vaccination, and centralized healthcare system which is able to consistently acquire and track the data).

Serious breakthrough cases mainly in older, unhealthy patients...




"The vaccinated patients are older, unhealthy, often they were bedridden before infection, immobile and already requiring nursing care," said Noa Eliakim-Raz, head of the coronavirus ward at Rabin Medical Centre in Petach Tikva.

In contrast, "the unvaccinated COVID patients we see are young, healthy, working people and their condition deteriorates rapidly," she said. "Suddenly they're being put on oxygen or on a respirator."


https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...er-2021-08-20/

Anecdotal data point related to rickair's post above:

As of yesterday, my state has had 83 total breakthrough deaths, which represents 0.003% of fully vaccinated individuals.

The average age of those 83 breakthrough deaths is 80 years old, which is notable because the average lifespan in my state is 77 years old.

where did you get this information? According to the CDC, they are not adding vaccine status to their official case numbers. Positive tests are being recorded with no reference to whether the subject was or was not vaccinated. (yet another reason the "pandemic of the unvaccinated" narrative is not necessarily true)

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-1...ugh-cases.html

From my state’s health department, who is tracking breakthrough infections.