TodayQuote:
Here's a really thorough paper from the NCBI in 2008:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/
My takeaway is that in 2008 if a pandemic were to happen, it'd most likely be either a zoonotic influenza or coronavirus, and that's exactly what we got. This might've been why they were studying coronaviruses at the Wuhan lab, or it might've been inevitable chance from wet markets, or it might've been someone maliciously covering their tracks with 'the most likely' virus, or it's some other case I'm not even considering.
Useful quotes:
" RNA viruses have error-prone replication (23), lack a proofreading mechanism, and have rapid replication, short virus generation times, and large virus populations (22, 82). "
There is no doubt that is all true, but it doesn't apply to covid-19. The problem with Covid19 is that it mutated a stable part of the bat virus to better infect its next host, prior to jumping. That highly suggests intelligent design, it's also not found in nature.Originally Posted by Duffman
The way I understand it, zoonotic flu viruses can happen nearly instantly because each species reshuffles the virus, which is what caused the Spanish flu, but the flu is much different from a corona virus, which is much more stable and doesn't appear to be seasonal. I know corona viruses have jumped from animals in the past and as an RNA virus, it's prone to random mutations:Here's a really thorough paper from the NCBI in 2008:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2546865/
My takeaway is that in 2008 if a pandemic were to happen, it'd most likely be either a zoonotic influenza or coronavirus, and that's exactly what we got. This might've been why they were studying coronaviruses at the Wuhan lab, or it might've been inevitable chance from wet markets, or it might've been someone maliciously covering their tracks with 'the most likely' virus, or it's some other case I'm not even considering.
Useful quotes:
"ABSTRACT
Summary: Host range is a viral property reflecting natural hosts that are infected either as part of a principal transmission cycle or, less commonly, as “spillover” infections into alternative hosts. Rarely, viruses gain the ability to spread efficiently within a new host that was not previously exposed or susceptible. These transfers involve either increased exposure or the acquisition of variations that allow them to overcome barriers to infection of the new hosts. In these cases, devastating outbreaks can result. Steps involved in transfers of viruses to new hosts include contact between the virus and the host, infection of an initial individual leading to amplification and an outbreak, and the generation within the original or new host of viral variants that have the ability to spread efficiently between individuals in populations of the new host. Here we review what is known about host switching leading to viral emergence from known examples, considering the evolutionary mechanisms, virus-host interactions, host range barriers to infection, and processes that allow efficient host-to-host transmission in the new host population.INTRODUCTION
Newly emerging viral diseases are major threats to public health. In particular, viruses from wildlife hosts have caused such emerging high-impact diseases as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Ebola fever, and influenza in humans. The emergence of these and many other human diseases occurred when an established animal virus switched hosts into humans and was subsequently transmitted within human populations, while host transfers between different animal hosts lead to the analogous emergence of epizootic diseases (Table (Table1).1)"" RNA viruses have error-prone replication (23), lack a proofreading mechanism, and have rapid replication, short virus generation times, and large virus populations (22, 82). "
