Connect and get the inside scoop on Airline Companies

Welcome to Airline Pilot Forums - Connect and get the inside scoop on Airline Companies

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ. Join our community today and start interacting with existing members. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free.


User Tag List

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 02-20-2021, 06:34 AM   #1  
Perennial Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 5,784
Default When do we hit herd immunity?




The fact is we don’t really know. It’s a NOVEL coronavirus, so we don’t really know the seasonality of it in human populations and it’s increasingly clear we have no good estimate on how many have already been infected or precisely how long immunity will last for either infection acquired immunity or vaccine acquired immunity.

Our ignorance hasn’t stopped us from mandating some pretty drastic things like business and school closures that will have long term damaging effects though.


Last edited by Excargodog; 02-20-2021 at 06:59 AM.
Excargodog is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 06:56 AM   #2  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 28,518
Default

I don't think herd immunity is the sole bar for lifting restrictions. As you approach herd immunity, spread and new cases will slow as the bug finds it harder to find new hosts. No US politician has been able to implement a "zero covid" bar, they'd get lynched (New Zealand managed, but they've got very big moats and a socialist society). As long as the health-care system isn't overwhelmed, and it's not trending there, it's going to be hard to maintain restrictions just because.

Also... the at-risk population will have first access to vaccines, and the most motivation to actually get one. That will reduce both spread and case severity disproportionately to their % of the general population.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 08:02 AM   #3  
Gets Weekends Off
 
moonraker9's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 192
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rickair7777 View Post
it's going to be hard to maintain restrictions just because.
Unless we keep hearing "Got your vaccine? Don't let your guard down just yet! Don't travel, don't hug grandma! Another wave/variant is on the horizon!"
moonraker9 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 08:16 AM   #4  
Gets Weekends Off
 
RI830's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: BD-700
Posts: 1,531
Default

Never as long as Fauci is still running things.
RI830 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 08:37 AM   #5  
Line Holder
 
fasteddie800's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Posts: 51
Default

Quote:
When do we hit herd immunity?
Two weeks.
fasteddie800 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 09:00 AM   #6  
Gets Weekends Off
 
RiddleEagle18's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Posts: 1,961
Default

Florida has vaccinated 46% of the population over 65%.

Seeing as they account for over 83% of the deaths, in about another month when we have vaccinated everyone over 65 who wants one this is effectively over.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RiddleEagle18 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 09:33 AM   #7  
Perennial Reserve
Thread Starter
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 5,784
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RiddleEagle18 View Post
Florida has vaccinated 46% of the population over 65%.

Seeing as they account for over 83% of the deaths, in about another month when we have vaccinated everyone over 65 who wants one this is effectively over.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Excargodog is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 10:50 AM   #8  
Gets Weekends Off
 
turbojet28's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 258
Default

I used to think, also, that restrictions wouldn’t be able to last “just because”, but I have since traded that logical optimism for cynical pessimism. I am appalled at how unserious most people in the public are about their freedom being trampled on. They still don’t understand. I am convinced that the only way restrictions will be lifted is large-scale civil disobedience. Unfortunately politics, apathy, and cowardice are much too pervasive in our culture that I now wonder if it will ever happen. Hate to be a downer. Not saying I don’t think the economy will not recover to some reasonable level, but if anyone thinks all restrictions are going to be cancelled, and we are just going back to “normal” I would caution to think otherwise. Virtue signaling, politics, and “love” have opened Pandora’s box of executive power, and it is going to be impossible to put it back in, regardless of herd immunity.

I sincerely hope that in one year this post will look like the ramblings of a crazy person, but I am not putting my money on that happening.
turbojet28 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 10:56 AM   #9  
Gets Weekends Off
 
turbojet28's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 258
Default

Not to mention, as cases and deaths drop almost entirely due to vaccines and natural herd immunity, there will be a mass propaganda effort in order to pretend that lockdowns, masks, and all other futile efforts were the main reason that the virus was “defeated”, leaving the door wide open for similar measures the next time anything threatening comes along. Just watch.
turbojet28 is offline  
Old 02-20-2021, 01:02 PM   #10  
Gets Weekends Off
 
GeeWizDriver's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Sep 2007
Position: PIC
Posts: 1,065
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by turbojet28 View Post
I used to think, also, that restrictions wouldn’t be able to last “just because”, but I have since traded that logical optimism for cynical pessimism. I am appalled at how unserious most people in the public are about their freedom being trampled on. They still don’t understand. I am convinced that the only way restrictions will be lifted is large-scale civil disobedience. Unfortunately politics, apathy, and cowardice are much too pervasive in our culture that I now wonder if it will ever happen. Hate to be a downer. Not saying I don’t think the economy will not recover to some reasonable level, but if anyone thinks all restrictions are going to be cancelled, and we are just going back to “normal” I would caution to think otherwise. Virtue signaling, politics, and “love” have opened Pandora’s box of executive power, and it is going to be impossible to put it back in, regardless of herd immunity.

I sincerely hope that in one year this post will look like the ramblings of a crazy person, but I am not putting my money on that happening.
Winner, winner. Chicken dinner.
GeeWizDriver is offline  
 
 
 

 
Post Reply
 



Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Related Topics
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Just Hit ATP Mins egothrasher Part 91 and Low Time 8 02-13-2021 04:20 AM
Oil Prices Could Hit $80 Next 2 Years SWAjet Major 14 11-29-2014 06:31 PM
Two Hit Wonder? Winged Wheeler Hangar Talk 6 04-07-2007 10:47 PM
UPS Pilots Hit the Jackpot Freighter Captain Cargo 21 09-08-2006 05:11 AM
Fed Ex and UPS hit 52 week lows ShamH85 Cargo 3 09-22-2005 08:58 AM


All times are GMT -8. The time now is 02:50 PM.