Natural Immunity vs Vaccine:
08-26-2021, 01:55 PM
#91
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 302
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Basic Epidemiology 101.
like the Israelis just did:
https://unherd.com/thepost/bombshell-study-finds-natural-immunity-superior-to-vaccination/
An excerpt:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.21262415v1
like the Israelis just did:
https://unherd.com/thepost/bombshell-study-finds-natural-immunity-superior-to-vaccination/
An excerpt:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....24.21262415v1
That's a retrospective study. There were no tests performed. Immunity is inferred by not getting re-infected over a certain period of time. It's also not peer reviewed. It says so right at the top.
08-26-2021, 02:09 PM
#92
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,640
Originally Posted by Tfork
That's a retrospective study. There were no tests performed. Immunity is inferred by not getting re-infected over a certain period of time. It's also not peer reviewed. It says so right at the top.
And yeah, the DEFINITION OF IMMUNITY IS NOT GETTING INFECTED OVER A CERTAIN PERIOD IF TIME.
Are you doubting the credentials of the authors? These are serious researchers, given access to the Israeli database fir an institutional review board approved study. Do you even know what an institutional Review Board is?
Why are you clinging to the forlorn hope that you aren’t wrong without even researching the extent of your own ignorance before embarrassing yourself like this? Spend 20 minutes actually learning about the technique before you start denigrating it or the researchers who posted it: Do you truly think you understand this more than these guys do?
Title page
Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections
Sivan Gazit, MD MA1,2*; Roei Shlezinger, BA1; Galit Perez, MN MA2; Roni Lotan, PhD2; Asaf Peretz, MD1,3; Amir Ben-Tov, MD1,4; Dani Cohen, PhD4; Khitam Muhsen, PhD4; Gabriel Chodick, PhD MHA2,4; Tal Patalon, MD1,2
*Corresponding author.
1Kahn Sagol Maccabi (KSM) Research & Innovation Center, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, 68125, Israel.
2 Maccabitech Institute for Research and Innovation, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Israel.
3Internal Medicine COVID-19 Ward, Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital, Ashdod Israel.
4Sackler Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
The authors declare they have no conflict of interest. Funding: There was no external funding for the project.
Corresponding author: Sivan Gazit, [email protected], 27 HaMared street, Tel Aviv, 68125, Israel
Comparing SARS-CoV-2 natural immunity to vaccine-induced immunity: reinfections versus breakthrough infections
Sivan Gazit, MD MA1,2*; Roei Shlezinger, BA1; Galit Perez, MN MA2; Roni Lotan, PhD2; Asaf Peretz, MD1,3; Amir Ben-Tov, MD1,4; Dani Cohen, PhD4; Khitam Muhsen, PhD4; Gabriel Chodick, PhD MHA2,4; Tal Patalon, MD1,2
*Corresponding author.
1Kahn Sagol Maccabi (KSM) Research & Innovation Center, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Tel Aviv, 68125, Israel.
2 Maccabitech Institute for Research and Innovation, Maccabi Healthcare Services, Israel.
3Internal Medicine COVID-19 Ward, Samson Assuta Ashdod University Hospital, Ashdod Israel.
4Sackler Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel.
The authors declare they have no conflict of interest. Funding: There was no external funding for the project.
Corresponding author: Sivan Gazit, [email protected], 27 HaMared street, Tel Aviv, 68125, Israel
08-26-2021, 02:14 PM
#93
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 302
Originally Posted by Excargodog
Yes it does. And yeah, it’s a retrospective study. So what? Do you even know what that means? Retrospective DOESN’T mean invalid. It is a totally valid statistical technique - which you’d know if you had ever had Epi 1O1.
And yeah, the DEFINITION OF IMMUNITY IS NOT GETTING INFECTED OVER A CERTAIN PERIOD IF TIME.
Are you doubting the credentials of the authors? These are serious researchers, given access to the Israeli database fir an institutional review board approved study. Do you even know what an institutional Review Board is?
Why are you clinging to the forlorn hope that you aren’t wrong without even researching the extent of your own ignorance before embarrassing yourself like this? Spend 20 minutes actually learning about the technique before you start denigrating it or the researchers who posted it: Do you truly think you understand this more than these guys do?
And yeah, the DEFINITION OF IMMUNITY IS NOT GETTING INFECTED OVER A CERTAIN PERIOD IF TIME.
Are you doubting the credentials of the authors? These are serious researchers, given access to the Israeli database fir an institutional review board approved study. Do you even know what an institutional Review Board is?
Why are you clinging to the forlorn hope that you aren’t wrong without even researching the extent of your own ignorance before embarrassing yourself like this? Spend 20 minutes actually learning about the technique before you start denigrating it or the researchers who posted it: Do you truly think you understand this more than these guys do?
08-26-2021, 02:37 PM
#94
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,640
Originally Posted by Tfork
Lets just wait and see if it passes peer review. Neither of us are the experts. If I were to post an opposing study, but not peer reviewed, what would be your response?
But it isn’t so much that you are “no expert” as it is the fact that you don’t know the first thing about epidemiology that gets me. Even accepting that, I’d review what you posted objectively. But you clearly don’t know $hit from Shinola about epidemiology and definitely don’t have the credibility to cast aspersions on these researchers.
08-27-2021, 05:53 AM
#95
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,444
UK conducting human challenge trials with original and delta variant (no mention of gain-of-function).
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...ay-in-uk-68908
Another article on WSJ (paywall).
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...ay-in-uk-68908
Another article on WSJ (paywall).
08-27-2021, 06:23 AM
#96
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,640
Originally Posted by rickair7777
UK conducting human challenge trials with original and delta variant (no mention of gain-of-function).
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...ay-in-uk-68908
Another article on WSJ (paywall).
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-o...ay-in-uk-68908
Another article on WSJ (paywall).
I think the advantage of controlled human infection models is that they are controlled—so they control for both timing and dose of exposure. You can look at natural history studies, and you can see that the rates of reinfection are quite low. But the problem with those studies, or limitation of those studies, if you like, is we don’t know whether somebody has not been reinfected because they have protective immunity, or it may just be that they haven’t been exposed to SARS-CoV-2, and that’s why they’ve not been reinfected. Whereas in these studies, because we know we are exposing everyone in a very controlled way, if people are not infected after that controlled exposure, we know they must have protective immunity.
It has become obvious now in several cohort studies - the Israeli one released yesterday being the largest one to date - that people who have recovered from COVID are far less likely over time to get a subsequent infection than those who have merely been fully vaccinated. That is not to say that current vaccines do not have a place in protecting people who are COVID naive from harm during their initial (and perhaps subsequent) exposures to COVID, simply that protection from getting AND SPREADING COVID seems to be relatively short-lived and unless better vaccines can be produced there is no realistic chance of ever getting rid of COVID through vaccination because most of the world is not going to be able to vaccinate most of their population every six months. The GOOD news is that immunity after initial infection appears far more robust, and once enough people have had COVID and either survived it or not, it likely will just circulate seasonally like the four other human coronaviruses most of us have had during our lives and do relatively little damage.
if these challenge studies with the original COVID strain are successful it would suggest to me that the better path might be to give up on the RNA vaccines as being perhaps TOO SPECIFIC (and perhaps too readily defeated by a single mutation) and go with an attenuated live virus like the Sabin polio vaccine, the Yellow fever vaccine, and the cowpox/vaccinia smallpox vaccine which sensitized the immune system to a broader array of viral antigens which might then be more resistant to mutation induced escape or attenuation over time.
Sometimes a scattergun approach really IS preferable.
But clearly, these challenge trials are an indication that the people doing them do not think current vaccines are adequate..
08-27-2021, 09:49 AM
#97
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,444
Originally Posted by Excargodog
But clearly, these challenge trials are an indication that the people doing them do not think current vaccines are adequate..
Originally Posted by Excargodog
if these challenge studies with the original COVID strain are successful it would suggest to me that the better path might be to give up on the RNA vaccines as being perhaps TOO SPECIFIC (and perhaps too readily defeated by a single mutation) and go with an attenuated live virus like the Sabin polio vaccine, the Yellow fever vaccine, and the cowpox/vaccinia smallpox vaccine which sensitized the immune system to a broader array of viral antigens which might then be more resistant to mutation induced escape or attenuation over time.
We'll end up using whatever works best once the dust settles, but in the meantime the likely path forward is updated boosters designed for whatever the latest problematic variant is.
Also mRNA is cleaner and more targeted from a biochem perspective, so more of a scapel than the blunt instrument of the older stuff... lower odds of adverse effects.
08-27-2021, 10:11 AM
#98
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Economy Minus
Posts: 1,053
Originally Posted by rickair7777
The mRNA technology is VERY quick and easy to modify and update as required, and also VERY easy to manufacture in vast quantities.
We'll end up using whatever works best once the dust settles, but in the meantime the likely path forward is updated boosters designed for whatever the latest problematic variant is.
We'll end up using whatever works best once the dust settles, but in the meantime the likely path forward is updated boosters designed for whatever the latest problematic variant is.
08-27-2021, 11:48 AM
#99
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,640
Originally Posted by rickair7777
That's clearly NOT why they're doing them. They are trying to understand the virus better, how it infects and what the immune response is. Quantifying natural immunity clearly has potential benrefits, but replacing vaccines isn't one of them... unless you plan on doing challenge trials with the entire human race.
The mRNA technology is VERY quick and easy to modify and update as required, and also VERY easy to manufacture in vast quantities.
We'll end up using whatever works best once the dust settles, but in the meantime the likely path forward is updated boosters designed for whatever the latest problematic variant is.
We'll end up using whatever works best once the dust settles, but in the meantime the likely path forward is updated boosters designed for whatever the latest problematic variant is.
Also mRNA is cleaner and more targeted from a biochem perspective, so more of a scapel than the blunt instrument of the older stuff... lower odds of adverse effects.
But let me guess - you always wanted to fly a Vigilante when you were a kid
Last edited by Excargodog; 08-27-2021 at 12:00 PM.
08-28-2021, 02:00 PM
#100
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 302
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