US Reports Record 1.3M Covid Cases in a day
03-09-2022, 09:55 AM
#301
Gets Weekdays Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Economy Minus
Posts: 1,053
Originally Posted by Tfork
It was taken out of your math:
If no one was vaccinated, the the 17k becomes 41k, so 24k extra cases if no one was vaccinated per day based on your math.
So, I'm not exactly sure what you're saying about the ratios. And your use of percentages of total population certainly makes the number look small but aren't in reality. That's why I used the 24k instead. Don't forget, 24k extra cases equal much more in the long run.
If no one was vaccinated, the the 17k becomes 41k, so 24k extra cases if no one was vaccinated per day based on your math.
So, I'm not exactly sure what you're saying about the ratios. And your use of percentages of total population certainly makes the number look small but aren't in reality. That's why I used the 24k instead. Don't forget, 24k extra cases equal much more in the long run.
That is a funny statement, that I used percentage of the total population to make the numbers look small but they aren’t in reality? Those are the real numbers, and the total population is a real number. It is all real and grounded in reality. What it isn’t, is part of some fantasy that fits the narrative you are trying to push. So sorry if that is inconvenient.
03-09-2022, 11:58 AM
#302
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 281
Originally Posted by skywatch
Those are completely baseless assumptions that ignore the large number of other variables that cause infection, and assume vaccination prevents infection for all, which it clearly does not.
That is a funny statement, that I used percentage of the total population to make the numbers look small but they aren’t in reality? Those are the real numbers, and the total population is a real number. It is all real and grounded in reality. What it isn’t, is part of some fantasy that fits the narrative you are trying to push. So sorry if that is inconvenient.
That is a funny statement, that I used percentage of the total population to make the numbers look small but they aren’t in reality? Those are the real numbers, and the total population is a real number. It is all real and grounded in reality. What it isn’t, is part of some fantasy that fits the narrative you are trying to push. So sorry if that is inconvenient.
The only assumption there is that if no one is vaccinated, the number of infections would be the same for both groups. How is that a bad assumption?
03-09-2022, 04:44 PM
#303
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Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 2,352
Originally Posted by Tfork
Nah, you're making things up. How can behavior be a factor in historical data that cannot be changed. Any behavior has already happened. You can't go back and change the behavior. Red herring.
You either have a poor background in data analysis or you are not understanding the basic premise I am describing. If you are comparing two populations, they have to be identical except for the variable you are differentiating. That is not the case. You can take a large enough sample so that it estimates the populations you are targeting, but this only affects those within the population. Vaccinated and particularly the unvaccinated are likely to behave in very different manners. And by behave, I’m talking about the millions of activities not addressed by anything you posted.
03-10-2022, 01:48 PM
#304
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Joined APC: Jun 2017
Posts: 1,109
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Obviously delta came about in 2021, and was more transmissible... so even if the vaccines provided equal against new variants, more transmissible means more cases => more deaths. We can speculate what 2021 would have looked like without any vaccines.
Also in 2020 the at-risk population (including my octogenarian parents) was mostly hiding under their beds... that was of course not sustainable.
And yes I agree fatality counts are grossly over-stated, probably by at least a factor of two, but even if only 20% of recorded covid deaths are legit that's still far worse than the flu. Apparently that's too much for our society to accept. I advocated all along that we should just let it run its' course, and let people make their own choices about social distancing but obviously politicians and many voters had other ideas.
Also in 2020 the at-risk population (including my octogenarian parents) was mostly hiding under their beds... that was of course not sustainable.
And yes I agree fatality counts are grossly over-stated, probably by at least a factor of two, but even if only 20% of recorded covid deaths are legit that's still far worse than the flu. Apparently that's too much for our society to accept. I advocated all along that we should just let it run its' course, and let people make their own choices about social distancing but obviously politicians and many voters had other ideas.
if the vaccines were effective in any significant way and 85-90% of the vulnerable population is vaccinated then we would have to assume that the number of deaths could have easily exceeded 1-2 million in just 2021. Maybe that’s possible. We’ll never know, but that seems to be a stretch to me.
03-10-2022, 05:18 PM
#305
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 281
Originally Posted by ThumbsUp
You either have a poor background in data analysis or you are not understanding the basic premise I am describing. If you are comparing two populations, they have to be identical except for the variable you are differentiating. That is not the case. You can take a large enough sample so that it estimates the populations you are targeting, but this only affects those within the population. Vaccinated and particularly the unvaccinated are likely to behave in very different manners. And by behave, I’m talking about the millions of activities not addressed by anything you posted.
03-11-2022, 12:33 PM
#306
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 2,352
Originally Posted by Tfork
Yeah, you know more about data analysis than the PHDs that made the report. Go tell them how wrong they are because your obviously correct. There's not two populations they are talking about, you might try reading the report.
I’m either not reading the same report, or you don’t know what it’s saying. Do you have a link?
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