US Reports Record 1.3M Covid Cases in a day
03-05-2022, 07:54 PM
#292
Bracing for Fallacies
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Position: In favor of good things, not in favor of bad things
Posts: 3,543
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Obviously delta came about in 2021, and was more transmissible... so even if the vaccines provided equal against new variants, more transmissible means more cases => more deaths. We can speculate what 2021 would have looked like without any vaccines.
Also in 2020 the at-risk population (including my octogenarian parents) was mostly hiding under their beds... that was of course not sustainable.
And yes I agree fatality counts are grossly over-stated, probably by at least a factor of two, but even if only 20% of recorded covid deaths are legit that's still far worse than the flu. Apparently that's too much for our society to accept. I advocated all along that we should just let it run its' course, and let people make their own choices about social distancing but obviously politicians and many voters had other ideas.
Also in 2020 the at-risk population (including my octogenarian parents) was mostly hiding under their beds... that was of course not sustainable.
And yes I agree fatality counts are grossly over-stated, probably by at least a factor of two, but even if only 20% of recorded covid deaths are legit that's still far worse than the flu. Apparently that's too much for our society to accept. I advocated all along that we should just let it run its' course, and let people make their own choices about social distancing but obviously politicians and many voters had other ideas.
Well said.
Filler
03-07-2022, 06:47 AM
#293
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,343
Originally Posted by FNGFO
I’d say the number of deaths were acceptable on the whole, but far too juicy of a political morsel to be passed up.
There was a 17% increase in US death rates from 2019 to 2020, but I'd bet that was at least 50% due to social disruption from lock downs (substance abuse, isolation-aggravated mental health issues, and deferred medical care).
Humans are social animals.
03-07-2022, 07:14 AM
#294
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 2,365
Originally Posted by Tfork
All this would matter if they were talking about future data but they're not. This is historical data and has already happened. If you read the notes, you'd see the data was collected through January '22. So all the behavior issues you're bringing up is a non-issue with respect to the data. However, I don't disagree with most of what you said, it's just not germane to this data set.
03-07-2022, 07:38 AM
#295
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 295
Originally Posted by ThumbsUp
It is completely relative. The data sets assume they are equal. They are not.
03-07-2022, 08:18 AM
#296
Gets Weekdays Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: Economy Minus
Posts: 1,053
Originally Posted by Tfork
Ok, thanks for using the CDC data, I didn't check your math but let's assume you're spot on. So 24k of extra cases that go out there (in many cases) spread it to others, who then spread it to others…
That would assume the daily case rate stay constant, which we know it doesn’t…
I don't think I ever said it does justify firing people but it's certainly not minuscule. And saving 24k^nth cases per day is pretty darn effective. Why don't you email the CDC to see if they agree with your assessment. You're going to be surprised.
That would assume the daily case rate stay constant, which we know it doesn’t…
I don't think I ever said it does justify firing people but it's certainly not minuscule. And saving 24k^nth cases per day is pretty darn effective. Why don't you email the CDC to see if they agree with your assessment. You're going to be surprised.
Yes, it is a snapshot in time. Is there a logical reason to believe vaccination provides better protection depending on the month or day or year? Otherwise, shouldn’t the ratios be about the same over time?
This is pretty solid though - to summarize - vaccination reduced risk of infection from .0124% to .0052% for this dataset. That is good enough for you to call “effective”. Not good enough for Rochelle and I. Have a great day.
03-07-2022, 09:37 AM
#297
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 112
Originally Posted by flyprdu
With Russian Oligarchs' money cut off and Russia pulling the plug on social media, I expect anti-vaccine content here to drop to zero soon.
03-07-2022, 10:48 AM
#298
At your mom's house
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: cpt 737
Posts: 2,683
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Some people have trouble with big numbers. Hundreds of thousands die each month in the US, to says nothing of the world at large.
There was a 17% increase in US death rates from 2019 to 2020, but I'd bet that was at least 50% due to social disruption from lock downs (substance abuse, isolation-aggravated mental health issues, and deferred medical care).
Humans are social animals.
There was a 17% increase in US death rates from 2019 to 2020, but I'd bet that was at least 50% due to social disruption from lock downs (substance abuse, isolation-aggravated mental health issues, and deferred medical care).
Humans are social animals.
I'd imagine lockdowns etc killed more than the covid.
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/economic-downturn-excess-cancer-deaths-atun/
03-07-2022, 02:58 PM
#299
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2011
Position: Left seat on a kite
Posts: 1,884
Originally Posted by rickair7777
Humans are social animals.
News from social media
Covid hysteria
hell…look at this Ukraine-Russia mess. Tell the avg American that Ukraine has been fighting the Russian dominated Ukrainian provinces for almost 8 years…..wait for the shock and dismay.
- Putin uses a thermo-baric bomb….oh my!! We used them on ISIS!
Im not excusing the use of bombs or war…just pointing out the ignorance of the average human
03-09-2022, 09:07 AM
#300
Always Working
Joined APC: Jul 2021
Posts: 295
Originally Posted by skywatch
For starters it’s not 24K cases a day, not sure where you get that, but yes, maybe some subset of the 41k would likely not have gotten infected if vaccinated - what that number is? unknown without understanding a ton of variables about the infected groups - age, exposure, immunity, etc.
Yes, it is a snapshot in time. Is there a logical reason to believe vaccination provides better protection depending on the month or day or year? Otherwise, shouldn’t the ratios be about the same over time?
This is pretty solid though - to summarize - vaccination reduced risk of infection from .0124% to .0052% for this dataset. That is good enough for you to call “effective”. Not good enough for Rochelle and I. Have a great day.
Yes, it is a snapshot in time. Is there a logical reason to believe vaccination provides better protection depending on the month or day or year? Otherwise, shouldn’t the ratios be about the same over time?
This is pretty solid though - to summarize - vaccination reduced risk of infection from .0124% to .0052% for this dataset. That is good enough for you to call “effective”. Not good enough for Rochelle and I. Have a great day.
In simple terms - of the 58k to test positive, 17k were vaccinated and 41k were unvaccinated.
So, I'm not exactly sure what you're saying about the ratios. And your use of percentages of total population certainly makes the number look small but aren't in reality. That's why I used the 24k instead. Don't forget, 24k extra cases equal much more in the long run.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
