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Old 03-27-2017, 05:59 AM
  #21  
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Originally Posted by MikeF16 View Post
I recently heard that network plans to move most if not all of the ATL 7er European flying to the 330. Anybody else heard this?

Fair warning, I don't know where the 4th floor is even located so consider this rumor unsubstantiated (but not made up).
You can go to travel net and confirm or deny the rumor in minutes. AMS is planned for 15 A330's a day this summer.
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Old 03-27-2017, 06:07 AM
  #22  
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Originally Posted by notEnuf View Post
The TA1 to TA2 curbing of the VB worked nicely for them. Ask for what you really want, when you don't get it, dial it back a bit but keep the structure. The next time it might be ask for more, perhaps with a sweetener of a wide-body order if we could only initiate international departures. Perhaps that's unpalatable so, dial it back to only BOS where there's a ready commuter contingent and a senior wide-body group who crave driving to work.

Would that be the head of the camel or the front legs as well? The nose came in about 3 months ago. This tent is going to get crowded, mark my words.
Or, "this week's crisis is next week's barely remembered footnote."

Or, "trust but verify."

We can what-if all year. It is incumbent on all of us to closely watch what the company does with these.

I'm not a commuter but remain "skeptically neutral" on the whole VB concept. I'm not willing to claim that they are great, nor the first step on the path to hell like some seem to be stating.
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Old 03-27-2017, 06:11 AM
  #23  
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Originally Posted by gzsg View Post
I think Boston will be a virtual base with 3 or 4 fleets. Maybe they will start with 1, but if it works for them I think they will add more in quick fashion.
Wouldn't it be better just to go ahead and open a base if they are going to do that?

Are there some savings for the company to have it a VB?
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Old 03-27-2017, 06:13 AM
  #24  
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Originally Posted by Herkflyr View Post
Or, "this week's crisis is next week's barely remembered footnote."

Or, "trust but verify."

We can what-if all year. It is incumbent on all of us to closely watch what the company does with these.

I'm not a commuter but remain "skeptically neutral" on the whole VB concept. I'm not willing to claim that they are great, nor the first step on the path to hell like some seem to be stating.
Remember the augmented domestic ops and all the hell the forum assured us was coming from that!
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Old 03-27-2017, 06:14 AM
  #25  
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Originally Posted by Herkflyr View Post
Or, "this week's crisis is next week's barely remembered footnote."

Or, "trust but verify."

We can what-if all year. It is incumbent on all of us to closely watch what the company does with these.

I'm not a commuter but remain "skeptically neutral" on the whole VB concept. I'm not willing to claim that they are great, nor the first step on the path to hell like some seem to be stating.

That's exactly why I bring it up now. Forewarned is forearmed. It is the intelligent thing to do, strategize from the opponents perspective, no?

Trust but verify bites us often enough. I say verify but verify, trust is for suckers. "We didn't think they'd do that" or "that was never the intent of the language but there's nothing we can do about it."
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Old 03-27-2017, 07:49 AM
  #26  
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Originally Posted by Klondike Bear View Post
Wouldn't it be better just to go ahead and open a base if they are going to do that?

Are there some savings for the company to have it a VB?
VB is extremely flexible. Month to month. We are a very seasonable air line.

Opening a base is not flexible.

The number of fleets and bases increases the training waterfall exponentially.

Captain Dickson is predicting 600 pilot retirements in 2018. That will increase to we'll over 800 annually.

If each retirement results in an average of 6 initial training events, that is 3600 initial training events in 12 months.

Opening another base would be insanity.

The training ball grows each and every day for the next 10 years plus.

Today is their best day. Every day the challenge grows larger.

Look at the size of the last 5 AEs and then watch the count of required training cycles on the next 5.
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Old 03-27-2017, 07:52 AM
  #27  
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BOS was my first guess as a post TA base....virtual or otherwise.

they know where we live....and I'm pretty sure have a good data base profile for how we might bid.

it would be interesting to know the % of NYC based pilots that live closer to bos than nyc.
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Old 03-27-2017, 07:59 AM
  #28  
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Originally Posted by gzsg View Post
VB is extremely flexible. Month to month. We are a very seasonable air line.

Opening a base is not flexible.

The number of fleets and bases increases the training waterfall exponentially.

Captain Dickson is predicting 600 pilot retirements in 2018. That will increase to we'll over 800 annually.

If each retirement results in an average of 6 initial training events, that is 3600 initial training events in 12 months.

Opening another base would be insanity.

The training ball grows each and every day for the next 10 years plus.

Today is their best day. Every day the challenge grows larger.

Look at the size of the last 5 AEs and then watch the count of required training cycles on the next 5.
What is not readily apparent in those numbers is the list distribution of the retiring pilots. it is not going to be a line order sequence departure off the top....or even close.

because of the hiring demographics of the last 20 years or so, there is going to be a (guessing)...weighted distribution of retirements spread between probably the 20th to 50th to percentiles of the list.

it is going to be interesting to watch.....and interesting to see how they crack this nut.
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Old 03-27-2017, 08:11 AM
  #29  
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Originally Posted by BobZ View Post
BOS was my first guess as a post TA base....virtual or otherwise.

they know where we live....and I'm pretty sure have a good data base profile for how we might bid.

it would be interesting to know the % of NYC based pilots that live closer to bos than nyc.
Where pilots live matters only to the company for staffing a VB. If a VB saves them money is strictly a credit issue. In simulations run by the company and ALPA there were only about 3 cities that it helped. I remember two. SFO and MCO. BOS could have been the third. Savings were very minor. 20 million system wide.
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Old 03-27-2017, 08:22 AM
  #30  
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Originally Posted by gloopy View Post
Operate separately and phase out. Mac/Bond won't prevent that, even if its the same union. Especially one without a scope clause yet. That said, there are 2-3 other WAY more likely candidates than DL IMO.
That plan worked so well with DCI.

How many Delta pilots got furloughed last time we agreed to a massive alter-ego operation?
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