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Old 11-13-2018, 09:55 AM   #1  
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Default Oil prices and profit sharing

A month ago oil was above 80 dollars a barrel and analysts were predicting above 100 by year end with some calling for 150 by summer. WTI crude is at 56 a barrel today and still falling. This will have a significant effect on profit sharing and certainly does not hurt as we get ready to exchange openers. Itís a dramatic drop!
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:04 AM   #2  
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I remember Andersen saying that each penny=$1million to the bottom line. I wonder if their math works the same going down as it does going up.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:13 AM   #3  
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The math does not work when oil goes down because Delta has hedged the next 3 years at $80/barrel.

Just joking but that's what happened last time.

Or of course, maybe management just SAID that's what happened last time and the millions are hidden somewhere.
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:22 AM   #4  
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One month ago!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/judecle.../#9e17a0c5817e
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Old 11-13-2018, 10:46 AM   #5  
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The market believes that Congress will put a lid on Trump, which is why I called this a few months ago. However, all bets are off if we get forced into a war with Iran.
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:22 PM   #6  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asacimesp View Post
I remember Andersen saying that each penny=$1million to the bottom line. I wonder if their math works the same going down as it does going up.
Before the merger with NWA a 1c increase in Jet Fuel cost Delta 20 million dollars a year. The runup in oil prices this year was projected to add 2 billion in additional costs. If and thatís a giant if oil stabilizes in the low fifties next year we will have a extremely good year since we passed on half the oil increase via increased ticket prices.
The bad news is the oil prices were killing are low cost competition. WOW and PrimeAir were already gone and others like Norwegian were teetering on the brink. This will probably save Norwegian.
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:37 PM   #7  
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The market believes that Congress will put a lid on Trump, which is why I called this a few months ago. However, all bets are off if we get forced into a war with Iran.
War is a joke. Russia, Iran, etc are barking little dogs that yip all day long.

All we do is cut them from the global economy and they are nothing.

Russia 2% of global economy and Iran .7%.
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:47 PM   #8  
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Quote:
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War is a joke. Russia, Iran, etc are barking little dogs that yip all day long.

All we do is cut them from the global economy and they are nothing.

Russia 2% of global economy and Iran .7%.
War is not a joke. It only takes one well placed bullet or bomb to send our fragile economy into a tailspin. I can ASSURE you. We have far more to lose than them. The fact that you can't comprehend that shows how ignorant you are of a global political economy.
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Old 11-13-2018, 12:50 PM   #9  
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Ukraine is not weak
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Old 11-13-2018, 02:36 PM   #10  
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Originally Posted by Planetrain View Post


Ukraine is not weak
I've left you teetering on the brink of complete annihilation!

In all seriousness, I don't see this affecting our profit sharing too much. It's happening very late in the year, so the impact will be minimal. I've heard rumblings (not from "top men"), but rumblings that we were looking at the 16-17% range. My guess is we'll see the higher end of that. Just my .02
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