Next AE: March-April 2019

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Quote: One thing about the longer legs on the 717 from nyc and dtw ......



Dtw is already doing dfw and Iah on the 220, sometimes it’s the only plane on the route. I would expect that sat, aus will be soon to follow. Same thing for nyc. They had said awhile ago that dtw would be the next base for the a220 but in one of the last videos on that sky web (can’t remember which one) thing one of them said no dtw for probably 2 years or so.

I think eventually all bases will have this plane, it actually doesn’t make sense to add more pilots to dtw and nyc if the long term plan is more 220 flying there
With the imminent rise of the 220 I can see 99% of 717 flying being 500nm or less.

It will be a great plane for those that drop their schedule and pick up out and back overnights

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Quote: One thing about the longer legs on the 717 from nyc and dtw ......

Dtw is already doing dfw and Iah on the 220, sometimes it’s the only plane on the route. I would expect that sat, aus will be soon to follow. Same thing for nyc. They had said awhile ago that dtw would be the next base for the a220 but in one of the last videos on that sky web (can’t remember which one) thing one of them said no dtw for probably 2 years or so.
I think eventually all bases will have this plane, it actually doesn’t make sense to add more pilots to dtw and nyc if the long term plan is more 220 flying there
I guess the SLC C10 bid packet is going to have a lot of DHs to/from DTW. Do they start bidding in April? That base is still a head scratcher.
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Quote: Right, but not too many will face that aside from very junior B's and "out of seniority" A's.

An MD is a very powerful "golden ticket" that allows you to sport bid anywhere you can hold even if there is no vacancy, all with no freeze, and an optional paid move. Obviously some will do it for a small veriety of very specific reasons, but I don't see the displaced masses mostly doing the slide.

If that's the rationale of why DTW/NYC didn't get any of the smash from the LAX fleet base move, we'll be on a 9 page thread of "AE out yet" while someone in planning is singing:

Care to define what an “out of seniority A” is? I was under the impression that if you can hold what you bid, you ARE senior enough, right?
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Quote: Care to define what an “out of seniority A” is? I was under the impression that if you can hold what you bid, you ARE senior enough, right?
I think he meant only juniors bid 88A because...well, it's the MadDog. Now that it's going away, there will be more than a handful of junior 88As that become xxBs as those senior decide to bid A on a more palatable (to them) category.


I could be wrong...
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Quote: I guess the SLC C10 bid packet is going to have a lot of DHs to/from DTW. Do they start bidding in April? That base is still a head scratcher.
There is a lot of slc flying coming too including sjc Iah dfw
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5 day course, 9 month freeze, ready to bid again for next year’s AE: I bet a lot of 88As go 88->717A if they can’t hold 320 or 73N in base with QOL.

Minimal to 0 88 mandatory displacements is my prediction if there are a lot of 717 vacancies. People are going to chase QOL with qualifiers on their preferences.
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Quote: 5 day course, 9 month freeze, ready to bid again for next year’s AE: I bet a lot of 88As go 88->717A if they can’t hold 320 or 73N in base with QOL.

Minimal to 0 88 mandatory displacements is my prediction if there are a lot of 717 vacancies. People are going to chase QOL with qualifiers on their preferences.
I think you underestimate people's strong desire to avoid any form of pay cut. That ~$10/hr difference down to the 717 seems to be a stumbling block to a good number of A's I talk to. Maybe they'll overcome it, time will tell.

Also, it's an even bigger swing when you compare the 717 to what they'd be making on either the bus or 737.
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Quote: I think you underestimate people's strong desire to avoid any form of pay cut. That ~$10/hr difference down to the 717 seems to be a stumbling block to a good number of A's I talk to. Maybe they'll overcome it, time will tell.
Agreed. It's a pretty big pay difference and would require a significant bump in seniority to offset, which with the short legs shouldn't be too difficult for locals willing to play the game. Commuters forget about it. More efficient to go to 737 or 320 unless QOL is of upmost importance.

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Quote: 5 day course, 9 month freeze, ready to bid again for next year’s AE: I bet a lot of 88As go 88->717A if they can’t hold 320 or 73N in base with QOL.

Minimal to 0 88 mandatory displacements is my prediction if there are a lot of 717 vacancies. People are going to chase QOL with qualifiers on their preferences.
I think it'd be a 12 month freeze.

Also, not knowing the timing of the training is a big negative. Anywhere in a 12 month period, who knows?

Also, on 12th year pay, the 717 is about 13-14 bucks an hour less. That equates to roughly a full day more of work per month for the same pay as the 88.

I'm sure there will be some voluntary movers, but it won't be a massive voluntary migration IMO. I think there will be quite a few MDs.

I'm kind of in limbo a 100 from the bottom. Its a coin flip if I get MDd or not (although I'm leaning towards it being more likely than not). Its not real advantageous to move voluntarily unless the seniority gain is quite large (unlikely) because I might otherwise get MDd. Going to training, getting seat locked, and taking a pay cut isn't terribly attractive to me. I'm unlikely to hold the 737 (let alone with any seniority) unless there are a ton of spots and backfills. Personally, not interested in the 320.

Just my opinion from where I sit.
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Quote: I think he meant only juniors bid 88A because...well, it's the MadDog. Now that it's going away, there will be more than a handful of junior 88As that become xxBs as those senior decide to bid A on a more palatable (to them) category.

I could be wrong...
Hmmmmmm. So, if some 717As get displaced on this MOAB and they can’t hold any other xxA in ATL, are they “Out of seniority 717As” ??
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