Nov/dec ae
11-01-2019, 08:18 PM
#691
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Posts: 159
How do you know A positions won’t be filled? Just because they may not be advertised new positions doesn’t mean they won’t be back filled to maintain status quo levels as A’s leave.... unless I’m missing something else as I don’t participate on Skyhub, was it said back fills won’t occur?
11-01-2019, 08:53 PM
#693
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,947
Let's look at some rough numbers.
The summer schedule actually begins around May 15 with another bump in June.
That is 6.5 months from yesterday.
It takes at least 2.5 months for a new hire to show up at indoc and subsequently be signed off having completed OE. Easily three months in many cases.
That means the last pilot who can be online as a RES/REG pilot for the entire summer schedule commencing May 15, needs to be sitting in indoc class in ATL no later than approximately February 15-March 1.
It's November 2 right now. How many new hires are going to start between November 4 class and the Christmas break? Let's say 170.
That leaves about six to eight weeks to train any remaining pilots who could be expected to fly the whole summer.
How many can be trained in 6-8 weeks? I suppose an absolute maximum of ~300. Has more than 140 a month ever been done?
So we've got 280 plus the 170 which gets us 450 pilots coming online by May 15 who are starting class between this upcoming Monday and the end of February.
450 is almost exactly the expected attrition between now and next June.
So we'd start the summer with 450 additional new hires than are on the seniority list today, November 2. At the same time, close to 400 wll have retired off the top.
Each additional month we could expect no more than ~140 additional, so:
600 by the end of June.
740 by the end of July.
880 by the end of August.
That's assuming absolute max training capacity starting NOW.
I don't see any way how next summer won't be a staffing challenge. With growth, it's going to be a repeat of last summer.
The numbers prove it.
11-02-2019, 12:17 AM
#694
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Fetal
Posts: 1,148
It's not, and it's not even close.
Let's look at some rough numbers.
The summer schedule actually begins around May 15 with another bump in June.
That is 6.5 months from yesterday.
It takes at least 2.5 months for a new hire to show up at indoc and subsequently be signed off having completed OE. Easily three months in many cases.
That means the last pilot who can be online as a RES/REG pilot for the entire summer schedule commencing May 15, needs to be sitting in indoc class in ATL no later than approximately February 15-March 1.
It's November 2 right now. How many new hires are going to start between November 4 class and the Christmas break? Let's say 170.
That leaves about six to eight weeks to train any remaining pilots who could be expected to fly the whole summer.
How many can be trained in 6-8 weeks? I suppose an absolute maximum of ~300. Has more than 140 a month ever been done?
So we've got 280 plus the 170 which gets us 450 pilots coming online by May 15 who are starting class between this upcoming Monday and the end of February.
450 is almost exactly the expected attrition between now and next June.
So we'd start the summer with 450 additional new hires than are on the seniority list today, November 2. At the same time, close to 400 wll have retired off the top.
Each additional month we could expect no more than ~140 additional, so:
600 by the end of June.
740 by the end of July.
880 by the end of August.
That's assuming absolute max training capacity starting NOW.
I don't see any way how next summer won't be a staffing challenge. With growth, it's going to be a repeat of last summer.
The numbers prove it.
Let's look at some rough numbers.
The summer schedule actually begins around May 15 with another bump in June.
That is 6.5 months from yesterday.
It takes at least 2.5 months for a new hire to show up at indoc and subsequently be signed off having completed OE. Easily three months in many cases.
That means the last pilot who can be online as a RES/REG pilot for the entire summer schedule commencing May 15, needs to be sitting in indoc class in ATL no later than approximately February 15-March 1.
It's November 2 right now. How many new hires are going to start between November 4 class and the Christmas break? Let's say 170.
That leaves about six to eight weeks to train any remaining pilots who could be expected to fly the whole summer.
How many can be trained in 6-8 weeks? I suppose an absolute maximum of ~300. Has more than 140 a month ever been done?
So we've got 280 plus the 170 which gets us 450 pilots coming online by May 15 who are starting class between this upcoming Monday and the end of February.
450 is almost exactly the expected attrition between now and next June.
So we'd start the summer with 450 additional new hires than are on the seniority list today, November 2. At the same time, close to 400 wll have retired off the top.
Each additional month we could expect no more than ~140 additional, so:
600 by the end of June.
740 by the end of July.
880 by the end of August.
That's assuming absolute max training capacity starting NOW.
I don't see any way how next summer won't be a staffing challenge. With growth, it's going to be a repeat of last summer.
The numbers prove it.
Merger coming??
Just kidding.
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11-02-2019, 03:31 AM
#695
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2008
Posts: 19,689
It's not, and it's not even close.
Let's look at some rough numbers.
The summer schedule actually begins around May 15 with another bump in June.
That is 6.5 months from yesterday.
It takes at least 2.5 months for a new hire to show up at indoc and subsequently be signed off having completed OE. Easily three months in many cases.
That means the last pilot who can be online as a RES/REG pilot for the entire summer schedule commencing May 15, needs to be sitting in indoc class in ATL no later than approximately February 15-March 1.
It's November 2 right now. How many new hires are going to start between November 4 class and the Christmas break? Let's say 170.
That leaves about six to eight weeks to train any remaining pilots who could be expected to fly the whole summer.
How many can be trained in 6-8 weeks? I suppose an absolute maximum of ~300. Has more than 140 a month ever been done?
So we've got 280 plus the 170 which gets us 450 pilots coming online by May 15 who are starting class between this upcoming Monday and the end of February.
450 is almost exactly the expected attrition between now and next June.
So we'd start the summer with 450 additional new hires than are on the seniority list today, November 2. At the same time, close to 400 wll have retired off the top.
Each additional month we could expect no more than ~140 additional, so:
600 by the end of June.
740 by the end of July.
880 by the end of August.
That's assuming absolute max training capacity starting NOW.
I don't see any way how next summer won't be a staffing challenge. With growth, it's going to be a repeat of last summer.
The numbers prove it.
Let's look at some rough numbers.
The summer schedule actually begins around May 15 with another bump in June.
That is 6.5 months from yesterday.
It takes at least 2.5 months for a new hire to show up at indoc and subsequently be signed off having completed OE. Easily three months in many cases.
That means the last pilot who can be online as a RES/REG pilot for the entire summer schedule commencing May 15, needs to be sitting in indoc class in ATL no later than approximately February 15-March 1.
It's November 2 right now. How many new hires are going to start between November 4 class and the Christmas break? Let's say 170.
That leaves about six to eight weeks to train any remaining pilots who could be expected to fly the whole summer.
How many can be trained in 6-8 weeks? I suppose an absolute maximum of ~300. Has more than 140 a month ever been done?
So we've got 280 plus the 170 which gets us 450 pilots coming online by May 15 who are starting class between this upcoming Monday and the end of February.
450 is almost exactly the expected attrition between now and next June.
So we'd start the summer with 450 additional new hires than are on the seniority list today, November 2. At the same time, close to 400 wll have retired off the top.
Each additional month we could expect no more than ~140 additional, so:
600 by the end of June.
740 by the end of July.
880 by the end of August.
That's assuming absolute max training capacity starting NOW.
I don't see any way how next summer won't be a staffing challenge. With growth, it's going to be a repeat of last summer.
The numbers prove it.
11-02-2019, 04:18 AM
#696
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2011
Posts: 4,538
You don’t need every pilot for the entire summer. The summer season peak is from 1 Jul to 15 Aug. You need your last group of pilots online 1 Jul. Take a look at June verses July last year. Even pilots brought online later in July provide useful block hours for the peak.
11-02-2019, 06:12 AM
#699
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Position: stake holder ir.delta.com
Posts: 10,566
How do you know A positions won’t be filled? Just because they may not be advertised new positions doesn’t mean they won’t be back filled to maintain status quo levels as A’s leave.... unless I’m missing something else as I don’t participate on Skyhub, was it said back fills won’t occur?
11-02-2019, 06:19 AM
#700
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Drivin’ the bus
Posts: 729
How do you know A positions won’t be filled? Just because they may not be advertised new positions doesn’t mean they won’t be back filled to maintain status quo levels as A’s leave.... unless I’m missing something else as I don’t participate on Skyhub, was it said back fills won’t occur?
Even if they backfill every 320A as an example, it won’t fix the problem. Only backfilling keeps the total number of positions the same as summer ‘19. Coupled with the projected block hour increases it would be worse in ‘20. Posting new A’s seems a necessity.
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