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Old 12-02-2019 | 03:29 AM
  #81  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
The 302 was my manual count. But you are exactly right in that backfills and retirements mask the true number, which will be somewhat lower.
I looked at the bid results and positions awarded.
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Old 12-02-2019 | 08:08 AM
  #82  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
The 302 was my manual count. But you are exactly right in that backfills and retirements mask the true number, which will be somewhat lower.
Sorry, I read that wrong. 302 sounds right. So they are covering some future positions. If 170 Wide body A’s have retired this year, and they’ve posted 302 positions this year, they are adding positions for next summer. Man it doesn’t feel like it but I guess I’ve just been expecting more movement at the top.
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Old 12-02-2019 | 10:36 AM
  #83  
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Originally Posted by sailingfun
I looked at the bid results and positions awarded.
Just for clarity, so did I. I went back to each AE as published and counted awarded WB A's manually, excluding the bypasses, in the 5 2019 AEs.

Originally Posted by Big E 757
Sorry, I read that wrong. 302 sounds right. So they are covering some future positions. If 170 Wide body A’s have retired this year, and they’ve posted 302 positions this year, they are adding positions for next summer. Man it doesn’t feel like it but I guess I’ve just been expecting more movement at the top.
The vast majority were off the March MOAB, so that would make sense - they were awarding to fill predicted vacancies as advertised through Summer 2020. If they do a large WB A bid as predicted in January(ish), that may indicate the growth Sailing/BS/others have talked about and/or faster attrition than anticipated. Cautious optimism. Very cautious...

FYI to all, Curly's site has some pretty good analytics about the bids, to include how many have gone from which seat to another seat, and the % off each bid that has been converted (for which the March MOAB is still only 72% converted...)
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Old 12-02-2019 | 11:27 AM
  #84  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
Just for clarity, so did I. I went back to each AE as published and counted awarded WB A's manually, excluding the bypasses, in the 5 2019 AEs.



The vast majority were off the March MOAB, so that would make sense - they were awarding to fill predicted vacancies as advertised through Summer 2020. If they do a large WB A bid as predicted in January(ish), that may indicate the growth Sailing/BS/others have talked about and/or faster attrition than anticipated. Cautious optimism. Very cautious...

FYI to all, Curly's site has some pretty good analytics about the bids, to include how many have gone from which seat to another seat, and the % off each bid that has been converted (for which the March MOAB is still only 72% converted...)
As I pointed out long ago I did not expect the Nov now split Nov/Jan bid to have a massive number of widebody bids. We added 3 with a 4 th A330 the first week of 2021 to existing deliveries next year. The LATAM deal now adds some A350’s late in the year with a in service date yet published.
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Old 12-17-2019 | 05:58 AM
  #85  
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<crickets>

I'm surprised there hasn't been more info from BS since January is closing in fast.
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Old 12-17-2019 | 06:53 AM
  #86  
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Originally Posted by Gspeed
<crickets>

I'm surprised there hasn't been more info from BS since January is closing in fast.
Their latest update said the AE could be in either January or February
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Old 12-17-2019 | 07:04 AM
  #87  
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Free Beer Tomorrow.



Maybe.
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Old 12-19-2019 | 12:53 PM
  #88  
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Originally Posted by 4fans
I can't speak to the last 12 months but there are roughly 170 widebody A's retiring in the next 12 months. That's not counting 7er guys/gals.
Ahhhh, that's right. The 767ER is not a wide body.

Hmmm....4fans. 4 engines. As in 747? As in Northwest 747. That explains it.
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Old 12-19-2019 | 03:01 PM
  #89  
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Originally Posted by UGBSM
Ahhhh, that's right. The 767ER is not a wide body.

Hmmm....4fans. 4 engines. As in 747? As in Northwest 747. That explains it.
I took the disclaimer to be an acknowledgement that the 767 is a widebody but the naysayers would whine if those numbers were included.
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Old 12-19-2019 | 04:12 PM
  #90  
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Originally Posted by Baradium
I took the disclaimer to be an acknowledgement that the 767 is a widebody but the naysayers would whine if those numbers were included.
Yeah, doesn’t matter which side you pick, somebody will call you out. The reason I wrote that is that people were debating wide-body positions on AE’s they weren’t referencing 7ER in their debate. I was just trying to be helpful with actual numbers.

And 4 fans references the 4 fans of freedom that I proudly flew to all of the worst parts of the world.
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