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Old 01-25-2020 | 08:46 AM
  #31  
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Originally Posted by PilotWombat
Ok, so I've been going through the numbers. Of course I have to make a lot of assumptions:
  • No state tax, 24% tax bracket during your career, 22% in retirement, 15% capital gains tax rate
  • 5% interest in the MBCBP, 8% return on your own investments
  • Buy an annuity with the MBCBP total, returned at 6% per year
  • Distributions on your own investments at 4%

With those assumptions and more, it will take 28 years for your own investments to provide more income than the MBCBP. At a 9% return, 22 years. Those numbers stretch are 31 and 24 years respectively with a 5% state income tax.



So I guess if your retirement horizon is more than 30 years out, then it's in your best interest to not have the MBCBP. If it's sooner than that, the MBCCBP is the better option.







I guess I shouldn't say "adequate". Fully tax advantaged, maybe.
I see more assumptions than numbers here. Especially the 6% annuity purchased with MBCBP

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Old 01-25-2020 | 08:48 AM
  #32  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
Please show your Math on how you think pilots will not be able to outpace the after tax returns of the MBCBP

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Tax sheltered money. That’s upfront a savings of roughly 15-25%. Plus 4-8% return. Later when your income is much less you’d be in a lower tax bracket. If you can beat that long term please call the Oracle of Omaha. He will give you the keys to the castle.
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Old 01-25-2020 | 08:58 AM
  #33  
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Originally Posted by PilotWombat
Ok, so I've been going through the numbers. Of course I have to make a lot of assumptions:
  • No state tax, 24% tax bracket during your career, 22% in retirement, 15% capital gains tax rate
  • 5% interest in the MBCBP, 8% return on your own investments
  • Buy an annuity with the MBCBP total, returned at 6% per year
  • Distributions on your own investments at 4%
With those assumptions and more, it will take 28 years for your own investments to provide more income than the MBCBP. At a 9% return, 22 years. Those numbers stretch are 31 and 24 years respectively with a 5% state income tax.

So I guess if your retirement horizon is more than 30 years out, then it's in your best interest to not have the MBCBP. If it's sooner than that, the MBCCBP is the better option.



I guess I shouldn't say "adequate". Fully tax advantaged, maybe.
And this plan will be in place aszis for 5-10 contract cycles?

I'm not sure I've heard anyone with two decades left in this industry advocate for the MBCBP. If I had 3-5 years left, I'd be singing the praises for sure!
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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:00 AM
  #34  
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Originally Posted by Tailhookah
I would recommend you talk to your reps. We need more than just a higher DC percentage. It’s because we make a lot. So the MBCBP allows us high earners to have a secondary tax haven to protect our money. There are rules and the MBCBP is that vehicle. It’s naive to read where some of you say you want the money and you’ll do what you want. That’s fiscally irresponsible and ignorant. You’ll not be able to outpace the taxes and return that the MBCBP will provide.



And the way this this country is going, I expect our 401k max contributions will someday soon be lowered to something around 40k from the current 58k due to our esteemed Reps in the DC swamp thinking we make too much and they enact a tax on the rich. That’s us. That hidden tax will lower our tax savings under current 401k rules. Most of America won’t care because they don’t get close to their limits.



When that hat happens our MBCBP will absorb our money above the new lower limit and protect us from our own swamp rats that are trying to hose us in DC.



The MBCBP is a great vehicle for those who are smart and get it.

I’ve talked to my reps. And any question beyond what is covered in the bullet points they put out gets a “you should ask the R&I guys that question.”

So your theory is that the socialists will take over, and mess up the 401k plan that is used by nearly everyone who has money to save for retirement but leave the MBCBP alone that is only used by the ultra rich?

I have said before and still believe that the MBCBP is a god option, and it might be the best option for some of us. But it’s not for everyone. If we actually believed that it truly will be optional in a TA you wouldn’t see all the pushback.


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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:00 AM
  #35  
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Originally Posted by Tailhookah
Tax sheltered money. That’s upfront a savings of roughly 15-25%. Plus 4-8% return. Later when your income is much less you’d be in a lower tax bracket. If you can beat that long term please call the Oracle of Omaha. He will give you the keys to the castle.
The upfront savings is not 15-25%. You will pay taxes on that money eventually. The only real savings is if you are in a lower tax bracket after retirement. That savings pales in comparison to to loss of investment gains being hamstrung by a 5% target return vehicle that is out of your control.

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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:03 AM
  #36  
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Originally Posted by Tailhookah
I would recommend you talk to your reps. We need more than just a higher DC percentage. It’s because we make a lot. So the MBCBP allows us high earners to have a secondary tax haven to protect our money. There are rules and the MBCBP is that vehicle. It’s naive to read where some of you say you want the money and you’ll do what you want. That’s fiscally irresponsible and ignorant. You’ll not be able to outpace the taxes and return that the MBCBP will provide.

And the way this this country is going, I expect our 401k max contributions will someday soon be lowered to something around 40k from the current 58k due to our esteemed Reps in the DC swamp thinking we make too much and they enact a tax on the rich. That’s us. That hidden tax will lower our tax savings under current 401k rules. Most of America won’t care because they don’t get close to their limits.

When that hat happens our MBCBP will absorb our money above the new lower limit and protect us from our own swamp rats that are trying to hose us in DC.

The MBCBP is a great vehicle for those who are smart and get it.
Lot of speculation and emotion in that line. But I'm still listening.
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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:07 AM
  #37  
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Originally Posted by Tailhookah
Tax sheltered money. That’s upfront a savings of roughly 15-25%. Plus 4-8% return. Later when your income is much less you’d be in a lower tax bracket. If you can beat that long term please call the Oracle of Omaha. He will give you the keys to the castle.


In addition to what Trip7 said, if you don’t shelter the money now, you will only pay long term capital gains rates on withdrawals above your basis when you retire. And that almost certainly is far lower than your marginal income tax rate in retirement.


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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:13 AM
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Trip7
I see more assumptions than numbers here. Especially the 6% annuity purchased with MBCBP
Any retirement calculation requires a lot of assumptions to come up with a single number. Not least of which is what return you can get on your own investments. Or what kind of interest we would negotiate into the MBCBP. If it makes you feel better, I can edit that post and remove all the assumptions I used. It wouldn't change the result.

Originally Posted by TED74
I'm not sure I've heard anyone with two decades left in this industry advocate for the MBCBP. If I had 3-5 years left, I'd be singing the praises for sure!
I'm not advocating for or against. That's just what the math says, making educated assumptions and controlling for as many forseeable contingencies as I can.

I also am not one who generally uses the phrase "What's in it for me????". My retirement isn't mutually exclusive of someone else's security. Even if nothing changes and we operate under the current contract for the remainder of my career, I'll be able to comfortably retire in my early 50's. Anything on top of that, whether MBCBP or just an increase in rate, is gravy. I won't vote for any reduction, but I'll gladly give a couple percentage points improvement (say, 22% instead of 24%) if it means 7000 guys who gave up their pensions get to be secure in their retirement.
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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:24 AM
  #39  
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Originally Posted by Tailhookah
I would recommend you talk to your reps. We need more than just a higher DC percentage. It’s because we make a lot. So the MBCBP allows us high earners to have a secondary tax haven to protect our money. There are rules and the MBCBP is that vehicle. It’s naive to read where some of you say you want the money and you’ll do what you want. That’s fiscally irresponsible and ignorant. You’ll not be able to outpace the taxes and return that the MBCBP will provide.

And the way this this country is going, I expect our 401k max contributions will someday soon be lowered to something around 40k from the current 58k due to our esteemed Reps in the DC swamp thinking we make too much and they enact a tax on the rich. That’s us. That hidden tax will lower our tax savings under current 401k rules. Most of America won’t care because they don’t get close to their limits.

When that hat happens our MBCBP will absorb our money above the new lower limit and protect us from our own swamp rats that are trying to hose us in DC.

The MBCBP is a great vehicle for those who are smart and get it.
You sure about that? Thanks for your sound financial advice, but I’ll take the money and invest it myself as I see fit......and I’ll beat a paltry 5% return, taxes or not.
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Old 01-25-2020 | 09:36 AM
  #40  
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Originally Posted by PilotWombat
Ok, so I've been going through the numbers. Of course I have to make a lot of assumptions:
  • No state tax, 24% tax bracket during your career, 22% in retirement, 15% capital gains tax rate
  • 5% interest in the MBCBP, 8% return on your own investments
  • Buy an annuity with the MBCBP total, returned at 6% per year
  • Distributions on your own investments at 4%

With those assumptions and more, it will take 28 years for your own investments to provide more income than the MBCBP. At a 9% return, 22 years. Those numbers stretch are 31 and 24 years respectively with a 5% state income tax.



So I guess if your retirement horizon is more than 30 years out, then it's in your best interest to not have the MBCBP. If it's sooner than that, the MBCCBP is the better option.







I guess I shouldn't say "adequate". Fully tax advantaged, maybe.


Can you share your numbers? With your tax bracket and growth assumptions I don’t see how the break even point is so far away.


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