That could be. I'm not trying to give anyone false hope of a delayed furlough. Here's what they have to overcome by 1 Oct:

Roughly 100 F/Os in NYC, roughly 100 F/Os in SLC, perhaps a couple of instructors. I don't know where LCAs sit reference displacement, but you obviously also need OE for all the new folks, too. Not a bad time to LCA bid on the 220, actually. Perhaps 50 NYC220As are in threat of displacement, and with SLCER closing, who knows how many As are threatened there.

You might have some COVID sickness disrupt training efficiency, since it's still very much with us.

If nothing else, those hurdles tell me the company will rush to issue results in time to make 1 July conversions known.

I'll be amazed if the company can pull off a near total F/O re-manning in time to furlough all UNAs on 1 October. I guess time will tell.

With pilots who have not yet converted to UNA. It’s a 365 day bid. Not everyone who is going to be UNA will be right away.

there’s enough idle capacity that they can use manned categories to cover and simply reduce the 220 schedule for a short time while training catches up. All of these training issues are irrelevant when running a 90% reduced schedule

Not to try to parse thoughts, but last stats I saw had about 80 pilots with CV19. That's 1/2 of 1%....not statistacilly significant. Not on Skyhub, so I could have missed something. Not saying people wont call in sick, but it's not due to CV

Hope I am right about numbers, cause if its higher % than I've stated, that is unfortunate from a medical perspective

‘Doh! I yield to your superior YB quote skills.

It's definitely a small number. But that's with a large number of us hanging at home, and with many of our family members doing the same. I suspect the incidence of covid infections among those pilots commuting to and from Atlanta and generally being "out and about" might be higher. Let's hope it's all a ruse!

Agreed 100 percent hockey. I appreciate the optimism but as a former furloughee you have to be really ignorant to not think there are Not going to be any furloughs. Last time after 9-11 we hit the street in 6 weeks. At least this group will have over 6 months to prepare. If they keep thinking there is a chance of no furlough those providing that optimism are really doing a disservice that will provide detrimental. I also find that those who spread the most rainbows were the ones never furloughed in their career.

I'm no anesthesiologist, but operating a 320 or 737 on legs that call for a 220 seems like it would be less cost effective than simply paying a few folks 220 f/o pay.

Who knows. I'll remain surprised if every UNA is furloughed effective 1 October, with that decision having been made 90 days prior.

Considering that the people who actually want to purchase a future flight right now seem to be unable to do so due to our shattered network, worrying about being short on pilots to meet even moderately returning demand seems like carts before horses.