5/18 Town Hall
05-20-2020, 09:43 AM
#181
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Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: Sic semper tomato
Posts: 275
Originally Posted by WhiskeyDelta
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/6157951829001/
Ed is “confident” in return over next 12-18 months. Just yesterday PJ said up to 3 years. I’m wondering if they are waking up to things changing faster than they initially predicted...literally over night.
Also today, they announced 200 additional June flights and looking at 200-300 more for July.
Ed is “confident” in return over next 12-18 months. Just yesterday PJ said up to 3 years. I’m wondering if they are waking up to things changing faster than they initially predicted...literally over night.
Also today, they announced 200 additional June flights and looking at 200-300 more for July.
05-20-2020, 10:07 AM
#182
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Joined APC: Apr 2011
Posts: 643
Originally Posted by WickedSmaht
Seems it depends on who he is speaking to and what the definition of "return" is. He just said in the town hall "a 20-25% airline over the next 2-3 years and maybe growth after that". There seems to be a lot of mixed messaging here and audience focused dialog, I'm left with the impression that he's either setting the bar low internally to over-deliver and tell the non cons that see it wasn't so bad or he's setting the stage for a MASS purge.
05-20-2020, 10:19 AM
#183
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: 717 FO
Posts: 391
I think it's a positive that BS mentioned they project needing 12000 active in the summer of 2022. That's Delta's conservative recovery outlook, which probably underestimates our actual recovery, and equates to a seniority list size of ~13500. After factoring in retirements, that would mean that every pilot on the list right now will have a job here in 2022.
05-20-2020, 10:20 AM
#184
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Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 140
Originally Posted by Aviator147
20-25 percent smaller than what we were pre-Covid is how I understood it. Not 75% smaller than what we were.
05-20-2020, 10:25 AM
#185
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Joined APC: Oct 2012
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Originally Posted by Aviator147
20-25 percent smaller than what we were pre-Covid is how I understood it. Not 75% smaller than what we were.
05-20-2020, 10:51 AM
#186
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Joined APC: Nov 2017
Position: NYC 7ERA
Posts: 1,967
Originally Posted by bender
I think it's a positive that BS mentioned they project needing 12000 active in the summer of 2022. That's Delta's conservative recovery outlook, which probably underestimates our actual recovery, and equates to a seniority list size of ~13500. After factoring in retirements, that would mean that every pilot on the list right now will have a job here in 2022.
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05-20-2020, 03:26 PM
#188
On Reserve
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: B717 FO
Posts: 22
Originally Posted by Speed Select
DLNet says the middle seat blocking ends Jun 30, conditions permitting.
Like PJ said, we’re in the “get people comfortable” phase. If people won’t sit in a restaurant or attend a ball game, they’re not going to sit in a tube with strangers. Delta knows the middle seat thing is just a step in getting people comfortable with flying again. It’ll end in a month or two.
Like PJ said, we’re in the “get people comfortable” phase. If people won’t sit in a restaurant or attend a ball game, they’re not going to sit in a tube with strangers. Delta knows the middle seat thing is just a step in getting people comfortable with flying again. It’ll end in a month or two.
My GF and I went out to eat at the Boathouse BBQ in Marietta Ohio on Saturday May 16th. They have outdoor seating, and the place was packed with people drinking, eating, and having a good time. Both the GF and I can not wait for everything to open up so we can have good time. From what I can tell a lot of people feel the same way.
Between some people being afraid to leave the house, and others being financially stressed, management is guessing on a 20 to 30 percent drop in demand for 2021.
Me personally, because I'm probably close to a furlough, thinks the economic outlook is what is scary. Once people are not FORCED to STOP eating out, going to bars, tourist attractions, sporting events, conversations, casinos, a majority of demand will return.
NYC or other similar areas may take longer to recover.
05-20-2020, 05:38 PM
#189
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Joined APC: May 2010
Posts: 310
Couple things I wanted to have cleared up.
1. I thought they have said they can train 90ish pilots every month on the 220? Wouldn't that be at least 270 training events before Oct 1. That's a lot of crews they are able to train in time so what is the thought on why they can't get that category close to fully up to speed in time for 10-1?
2. Am I understanding UNA correctly when I read it that you can go to UNA out of overall seniority, but you are limited to category seniority to determine what order you displace to UNA. So, just because you're UNA doesn't mean you are guaranteed to be furloughed on 10-1 if there are still Jr folks waiting to be displaced still.
They have published they want to be around 9400 after summer '21 and at 12000 going into summer '22? Those numbers aren't possible together.
As much as staring at some of you're numbers makes my eyes cross I'll give it a go...
12,000 active in, let's say, May '22 to be ready for a summer season and training going strong at 150/month puts us at 10,200 active in May '21 and 9,600 this coming January. They have more training capacity than 150 (i believe i remember reading ~190) but I imagine they wouldn't plan on using every inch of capacity in case they need to recover faster.
Still, that could allow them to drop to 9600 this Jan and start training the guys who are UNA/furloughed. That's 3600 less active pilots than today. I don't actually think this is even remotely possible on 10-1 but I figure that's the goal and they will get as close as they can along the way until they need to start bringing guys back.
I don't see there being a big extra cost for them to furlough with so many getting displaced anyway and needing to train. It's essentially taking a 365 day bid and making it longer with the furloughs.
1. I thought they have said they can train 90ish pilots every month on the 220? Wouldn't that be at least 270 training events before Oct 1. That's a lot of crews they are able to train in time so what is the thought on why they can't get that category close to fully up to speed in time for 10-1?
2. Am I understanding UNA correctly when I read it that you can go to UNA out of overall seniority, but you are limited to category seniority to determine what order you displace to UNA. So, just because you're UNA doesn't mean you are guaranteed to be furloughed on 10-1 if there are still Jr folks waiting to be displaced still.
They have published they want to be around 9400 after summer '21 and at 12000 going into summer '22? Those numbers aren't possible together.
As much as staring at some of you're numbers makes my eyes cross I'll give it a go...
12,000 active in, let's say, May '22 to be ready for a summer season and training going strong at 150/month puts us at 10,200 active in May '21 and 9,600 this coming January. They have more training capacity than 150 (i believe i remember reading ~190) but I imagine they wouldn't plan on using every inch of capacity in case they need to recover faster.
Still, that could allow them to drop to 9600 this Jan and start training the guys who are UNA/furloughed. That's 3600 less active pilots than today. I don't actually think this is even remotely possible on 10-1 but I figure that's the goal and they will get as close as they can along the way until they need to start bringing guys back.
I don't see there being a big extra cost for them to furlough with so many getting displaced anyway and needing to train. It's essentially taking a 365 day bid and making it longer with the furloughs.
05-20-2020, 05:49 PM
#190
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Joined APC: Sep 2008
Position: Kickin’ Back
Posts: 6,971
Originally Posted by PapaMike
Couple things I wanted to have cleared up.
1. I thought they have said they can train 90ish pilots every month on the 220? Wouldn't that be at least 270 training events before Oct 1. That's a lot of crews they are able to train in time so what is the thought on why they can't get that category close to fully up to speed in time for 10-1?
1. I thought they have said they can train 90ish pilots every month on the 220? Wouldn't that be at least 270 training events before Oct 1. That's a lot of crews they are able to train in time so what is the thought on why they can't get that category close to fully up to speed in time for 10-1?
2. Am I understanding UNA correctly when I read it that you can go to UNA out of overall seniority, but you are limited to category seniority to determine what order you displace to UNA. So, just because you're UNA doesn't mean you are guaranteed to be furloughed on 10-1 if there are still Jr folks waiting to be displaced still.
Denny
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