1.1M+ TSA Numbers by Independence Day
06-19-2020, 09:27 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 699
Originally Posted by Breadcream
Anyone want to publicly dispute a claim that TSA numbers will surpass 1,100,000 by the 4th? I figure 1M is already a lock so might as well up the ante a hair to make it interesting.
See this way we can put our deductive prowess on display and won’t have to wait too long before we can belittle each other or prove how superior we are.
Come on you pansies. Where my glass-half-fullers at??!!
See this way we can put our deductive prowess on display and won’t have to wait too long before we can belittle each other or prove how superior we are.
Come on you pansies. Where my glass-half-fullers at??!!
06-19-2020, 10:06 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2019
Posts: 1,256
15 days to put 500K additional pax per day to the scoreboard.
Not sure. Optimistic. Not sure.
seems like this is mostly an automobile holiday (versus Thanksgiving or Christmas): https://www.huffpost.com/entry/july-...b0321a01cda5f8
2017 Article: https://www.foxnews.com/auto/july-4t...imes-to-travel
My math tells me 80+% of July 4 travel in 2017 and 2018 was via car, if the above estimates are accurate.
Not sure. Optimistic. Not sure.
seems like this is mostly an automobile holiday (versus Thanksgiving or Christmas): https://www.huffpost.com/entry/july-...b0321a01cda5f8
2018 Article: Some 46.9 million Americans will travel 50 miles over the upcoming July Fourth holiday, the fifth consecutive annual increase and highest travel volume since the group began tracking data 18 years ago, according to the AAA, or American Automobile Association.
The holiday period is defined this year as July 3 to July 8.
SCOTT OLSON VIA GETTY IMAGES Despite higher prices, automobile travel is expected to increase for the fourth straight year.Gas prices have fallen a bit since the 2018 high of $2.97 a gallon set over Memorial Day weekend, the last weekend in May. The national average gas price was $2.87 on Wednesday, up 59 cents from a year ago.
Despite higher prices, automobile travel is expected to increase for the fourth straight year, rising 5.1 percent or nearly 2 million more than in 2017, to 39.7 million travelers, the AAA said.
The holiday period is defined this year as July 3 to July 8.
SCOTT OLSON VIA GETTY IMAGES Despite higher prices, automobile travel is expected to increase for the fourth straight year.Gas prices have fallen a bit since the 2018 high of $2.97 a gallon set over Memorial Day weekend, the last weekend in May. The national average gas price was $2.87 on Wednesday, up 59 cents from a year ago.
Despite higher prices, automobile travel is expected to increase for the fourth straight year, rising 5.1 percent or nearly 2 million more than in 2017, to 39.7 million travelers, the AAA said.
Buckle up for traffic over the July 4 weekend, when millions of Americans are expected to hit the road.
An estimated 44.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during this break, according to AAA. Most of those people — 37.5 million — will do so by car, a 2.9 percent increase from last year.
An estimated 44.2 million people will travel at least 50 miles from home during this break, according to AAA. Most of those people — 37.5 million — will do so by car, a 2.9 percent increase from last year.
06-19-2020, 10:36 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 630
Originally Posted by Breadcream
Anyone want to publicly dispute a claim that TSA numbers will surpass 1,100,000 by the 4th? I figure 1M is already a lock so might as well up the ante a hair to make it interesting.
See this way we can put our deductive prowess on display and won’t have to wait too long before we can belittle each other or prove how superior we are.
Come on you pansies. Where my glass-half-fullers at??!!
See this way we can put our deductive prowess on display and won’t have to wait too long before we can belittle each other or prove how superior we are.
Come on you pansies. Where my glass-half-fullers at??!!
06-19-2020, 11:09 AM
#14
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2010
Posts: 88
Originally Posted by KnotSoFast
While past performance is no guarantee of future trends, 1,000,000 by July 4th seems unlikely, IMHO. Graph is current as of 18 June 2020
(light blue horizontal line is 1,000,000)
(light blue horizontal line is 1,000,000)
06-19-2020, 01:16 PM
#16
Sick of whiners
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Position: 767 VEOP
Posts: 507
Originally Posted by bronco21016
Thank you for making/finding that graph. I've been meaning to do it for awhile but just haven't gotten around to it.
.
I update it every day. Very sobering data. While we have made some progress, (from 5% of normal all the way to 20% of normal), we all still have a LONG, LONG way to go. Note that as current traffic rises, so did the traffic data from last year- - we are now in peak season and last year's numbers keep climbing away from current numbers, even as we increase.
Of interest, Delta's portion of the daily national TSA count has stayed relatively flat during this crisis- - approx 16% +/- 2% of the total daily TSA number. The forum warriors who complain about us losing market share should probably study those numbers... If AA, UAL, SAW and DL all fly that same proportion, that leaves 36% remaining for the sum total of Alaska, Jet Blue, Allegiant and Sprit which to me seems to be about right. Just sayin'
.
06-19-2020, 01:36 PM
#17
On Reserve
Joined APC: Aug 2012
Posts: 10
Originally Posted by KnotSoFast
.
Of interest, Delta's portion of the daily national TSA count has stayed relatively flat during this crisis- - approx 16% +/- 2% of the total daily TSA number. The forum warriors who complain about us losing market share should probably study those numbers... If AA, UAL, SAW and DL all fly that same proportion, that leaves 36% remaining for the sum total of Alaska, Jet Blue, Allegiant and Sprit which to me seems to be about right. Just sayin'
.
Of interest, Delta's portion of the daily national TSA count has stayed relatively flat during this crisis- - approx 16% +/- 2% of the total daily TSA number. The forum warriors who complain about us losing market share should probably study those numbers... If AA, UAL, SAW and DL all fly that same proportion, that leaves 36% remaining for the sum total of Alaska, Jet Blue, Allegiant and Sprit which to me seems to be about right. Just sayin'
.
06-19-2020, 03:15 PM
#18
Sick of whiners
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Position: 767 VEOP
Posts: 507
Originally Posted by jgalt
How are you getting DL’s share of total TSA throughput?
.
Great question... Each day, the OCC publishes the number of expected passengers (booked total) I then divide that by the TSA total number. (The resulting percentage is an overly conservative number since the TSA screened number is a total of all passengers as well as airport employees who go thru screening.)
The OCC Daily Outlook number is here (requires DLnet login) ->
https://deltaairlines.sharepoint.com...y-Outlook.aspx
If you forget the URL, search for "Daily Outlook" in the search box on DLnet homepage
Sorry for the missing chart data... I was less than fully motivated to check out DeltaNet while on vacay.
(Also, the claim at the top of this page that AA is flying 40% of passengers seems to me to be high. If they are flying 40% and we are (demonstrably) flying 16%, that leaves the remaining 44% to be split by UAL, SWA, AK, JB, Allegiant, Frontier et al. hmmmm.)
.
Last edited by KnotSoFast; 06-26-2020 at 05:06 AM.
06-19-2020, 04:31 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2009
Posts: 443
The way the Covid numbers are looking in places like Florida, Arizona, etc, I'm guessing by July they are going to be shutting everything down again. I hate that Ed's super cautious route is right but I'm starting to think it is.
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