Which seems odd since the FAs are the ones directly fielding the pax questions as to why there are people sitting in the middle seats when they were promised otherwise

 

How’s that wide body fleet looking?

 

What?? We have widebodies. They’re just camouflaged to look like Virgin Atlantic and Aeromexico planes.

 

It's already forgotten. Morgan Stanley just put a $72 price target on DAL.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/367945...=seeking_alpha

 

Interesting that AAL shows a price decline. I wonder what MS is looking at. Debt? Our balance sheet ain't that pretty anymore. Not that much better than AAL's anyway.

 

I think they are buying into the management line that they are much more cost efficient going forward given the fleet retirements, early out benefiting payroll, newer efficient operation from jets and other operational changes, and additional tax relief due to last years loss carrying forward.

 

AAL had a large debt load prior to Covid19. After some research it looks like they are continuing that plan going forward and adding to it. The plan to use the cash store from increased debt to fund airplanes and operations. SWA and DAL plan to pay off the new debt and are able to use cash for airplanes. The relative debt load is the largest disparity between the companies.

AALs new bonds yield 5+% so investors in bonds have taken a heavy stake in the company which devalues equity. $6.5B in new bonds and $3.5B in new loans and a total debt load of $50B. They pushed out the maturities to try and take full advantage of the impending recovery and growth. They are making a much higher stakes bet on the return of air travel than DAL. DAL bonds are yielding 3ish% and are more linear in maturities. AAL has added $550M in annual interest payments while all indications for DAL is an aggressive debt pay down after cash neutral is no longer the objective.

That strategy at DAL means low profit sharing payouts short term and huge amounts in a few years. Low payouts relative to our high water mark, but in line with UAL. This situation will seem like a good reason to sell profit sharing but it will be hugely back loaded giving management a window to negotiate it away with a relatively quick TA. This works well for DALs resumption of sect. 6 as they will point to no and then low profit sharing payouts for 2020 and 2021 in an effort to take it back. There will be an appetite for a new deal when things turn around and I think the MEC chair will be motivated to deal to get something done which also will help management. The pilot group will also be impatient and hopefully won’t overlook the mounting profit margins as we go forward.

Morgan Stanley also sees the 2-3 year horizon for DAL and will ratchet up their target. DAL management laid the ground work for a ~ $100 target prior to Covid19. See the previous investor presentations on delta.com.

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/american-airlines-joins-debt-market-behemoths-11615973407

 

To quote POTUS: "Come on man!"

I am not an affected pilot nor did I ever convert to UNA.....I've been waiting for a SRQ since end of Dec 2020....public school maths says that was 4 months ago.

How many guys/gals are waiting 30+ days for OE?

This meltdown was 100% not because a few employees scheduled a vaccine shot over easter weekend....it's because Flt Ops "leadership" has been making terrible manning decisions for the last 6-9 months!

 

Personally, I'm still waiting on some factual data of how many pilots scheduled a Covid shot over Easter weekend. It is 1 possible explanation for the 100 cancellations but certainly doesn't account for the massive green slips that is systemic in the narrow body fleet....that is all on Delta management

 

No worries, they always make it work. I think you can just change the date on your post 2019 summer apology letter to +2 years and the problem is solved.