What are the chances of getting GS while being junior (bottom 15%) on the 320 vs ER?

Like most flying related questions, the answer is, “it depends.” It depends on the base and how network is whipsawing that fleet. It depends on weather. It depends on how many commuters are on that fleet in your seat. In the end, with so many potentially significant contributing factors to the answer of your question, anyone that can perfectly and accurately answer ought to run for god. (“You don’t vote for a king,” so how’s that candidacy for god going to work out?)

Isn't there something online showing historical data of GS across all fleets? I'd like to see a comparison broken down by base if possible. Not sure where I can find info on that.

Whether you find that info or not, you'll likely learn that historical data in this business is basically useless. Sometimes you're in the right place and sometimes you're not. You could try and chase and predict the hot category based on historical data. But all history has taught us is that today's gold is tomorrow's trash based on the whims of network planning.

Just some food for thought: If you're relatively junior (which I suspect you are), then it is unlikely you'll ever be as senior in the 7ER as you could be in the 220/320/73N. That is just by virtue of the fact that one is stagnant/shrinking and the others are growing. And seniority is really what determines opportunity. For good trips/days off/vacation/green slips, everything.

I did as well. I don’t think I’ll ever touch another Boeing.

My thought process is while I am junior 11xxx, I'll have more than enough time to bid the 320 as it's the growing fleet. No real rush. I do want to fly what's considered the best NB in our system before we bid farewell which I assume will be quite some time to wind down the entire 7ER fleet. I'll be seat-locked for 2 years if I make the switch, just in time for 321s to really make an impact. I don't mind redeyes either. Got kids at home so don't mind leaving late and arriving early.

Seniority matters obviously but just looking at the worst trips on the ER vs the best 320 trips, I'd take the 1-2 (few 3 leg days) leggers vs frequent 3-4 leg days on the bus. I also live in base. A mere 20 min drive to LAX on a good day. Bad day... Well, add another 20. 7ER is still doing HI flying until the NEOs come on property. 2022 is when they're slated to come online. Could be early 22 or late 22 going into 23. Plans change obviously.

Anything else I'm obviously missing?

fishforfun not even the 7ER?

You are in my exact scenario/have my exact thought process just west coast vs east coast. Uncanny.

It seems to me that you're trying to satisfy two competing visions of the ideal.
If this is your question, and GS be the goal, then you'll likely have more opportunity on the 220/320/73N than the ER.

If this is really your question, then bid the ER. If it's something you want to check off your bucket list, then do it. I know it was for me. I loved my time on the ER and I'll always be proud to have that type on my certificate. Make no mistake, the 320 fleet will be around for a LOOOONG time whereas the ER fleet's days are numbered. So if flying the 757/767 is something you've always wanted to do and you just gotta bag that type rating, then do it. Absolutely do it. There's no better time than the present and there are few things worse in life than the regret of a missed opportunity. Just pursue it knowing that you'll (temporarily) be giving up the relative seniority you might enjoy on other fleets and all the trappings that go along with that.

Age old question. 30 of 35 intl. If you can hack the first 6 months of international, you'll know the answer. Sleep deprivation and circadian rhythm versus time off. I flew it for time off and layovers. Money was never the issue. No regrets and memories, I could write a book.

As I understand it, a junior ER guy isn't going to be doing many international flights. And you mentioned 30 of 35 intl? What did you mean by that?