Prepare Yourselves… 2022 AEs
01-10-2022 | 03:21 AM
#501
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jan 2022
Posts: 464
Likes: 0
From: :)
-Money being invested in oil exploration is the lowest it has been since 2009. Oil prices are currently $82bbl for WTI and that is during winter. I think we will see $100-120 bbl come summer. After a decade of over investing in oil and the latest trends of banks turning away from funding evil oil under ESG political correctness, I just don't see this turning around quickly enough to rescue oil prices over the next two summers. High oil prices have always hammered the US economy.
-Europe jumped the gun on Omnicron, restrictions may plague summer travel again. Probably not, but it is an unknown. Our Pacific network is hanging by a thread.
-Fiscal instability due to inflation and attempts at rate increases. If assets come off their bubble valuations how will that affect the consumer's willingness to spend?
I'm just an everyday pilot, but if I can read the tea leaves then so can the guys in Atlanta who try to anticipate demand, plan networks and pass down the numbers to crew resources for staffing. It would be very wise of them to make smaller, as needed, AEs. The staffing decisions made over the past 18 months is the biggest management blunder I have seen in my career. However, no one asked me to come up with a survival and recovery plan for a once in two-decade apocalyptic drop in demand.
01-10-2022 | 04:43 AM
#502
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Feb 2008
Posts: 20,839
Likes: 160
I agree and hope they get it too. . I’m just a pilot, but I feel so strongly that this Omicron variant, while incredibly disruptive right now to our operation and the global economy, is going to naturally immunize everyone who hasn’t already had either the virus or the vaccine, and by summer it’ll be business as usual, and we are going to be so far behind if we allow it to affect manning decisions on the widebody fleets.
01-10-2022 | 04:59 AM
#503
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Apr 2016
Posts: 3,922
Likes: 138
From: Looking left
If this is a naturally occurring virus (big if) then that would be the normal progression of every new virus. They mutate, and almost always become more transmissible, but less harmful. In reality, it is a cold virus after all.
If it is a bioengineered virus, all bets are off. I am hopeful, with the help of the CDC, that this whole Covid fear will soon be in our rear view mirror. In 2-3 months everyone will have been exposed to this virus…most will develop immunity, some won’t even get it, but it’s burning itself out right before our eyes….at least in my community. In December, after making it a year and a half without any family member having it, my son, my wife, my daughter, my sisters entire family, all my neighbors, everyone’s gotten it, except me. Mild symptoms all around. It’s become an endemic cold virus, assuming it’s following the path of a “natural” virus. If it has any surprises after this, we might have big problems, and that will be proof it wasn’t a naturally occurring virus, but let’s hope that isn’t the case.
If it is a bioengineered virus, all bets are off. I am hopeful, with the help of the CDC, that this whole Covid fear will soon be in our rear view mirror. In 2-3 months everyone will have been exposed to this virus…most will develop immunity, some won’t even get it, but it’s burning itself out right before our eyes….at least in my community. In December, after making it a year and a half without any family member having it, my son, my wife, my daughter, my sisters entire family, all my neighbors, everyone’s gotten it, except me. Mild symptoms all around. It’s become an endemic cold virus, assuming it’s following the path of a “natural” virus. If it has any surprises after this, we might have big problems, and that will be proof it wasn’t a naturally occurring virus, but let’s hope that isn’t the case.
I had hoped for the same. My granddaughter however had covid in September. She tested positive this morning again. She is 11 and was getting her first vaccination shot tomorrow. Not sure natural immunity is working all that well. My daughter who had the exact same exposure has never had covid. She is double vaccinated and boosted and tested negative. I also have had covid and am vaccinated and tested negative. We all had basically the same exposure to a person who was positive early last week.
01-10-2022 | 05:13 AM
#505
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 2,878
Likes: 66
/ Sarcasm
01-10-2022 | 12:00 PM
#506
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,821
Likes: 153
From: window seat
01-10-2022 | 12:01 PM
#507
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Jul 2010
Posts: 12,821
Likes: 153
From: window seat
01-10-2022 | 12:28 PM
#508
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,216
Likes: 69
Long time lurker here. My .02, but the company is sitting on its hands with 2022+, just too many unknowns. When I look at unknowns I think about:
-Money being invested in oil exploration is the lowest it has been since 2009. Oil prices are currently $82bbl for WTI and that is during winter. I think we will see $100-120 bbl come summer. After a decade of over investing in oil and the latest trends of banks turning away from funding evil oil under ESG political correctness, I just don't see this turning around quickly enough to rescue oil prices over the next two summers. High oil prices have always hammered the US economy.
-Europe jumped the gun on Omnicron, restrictions may plague summer travel again. Probably not, but it is an unknown. Our Pacific network is hanging by a thread.
-Fiscal instability due to inflation and attempts at rate increases. If assets come off their bubble valuations how will that affect the consumer's willingness to spend?
I'm just an everyday pilot, but if I can read the tea leaves then so can the guys in Atlanta who try to anticipate demand, plan networks and pass down the numbers to crew resources for staffing. It would be very wise of them to make smaller, as needed, AEs. The staffing decisions made over the past 18 months is the biggest management blunder I have seen in my career. However, no one asked me to come up with a survival and recovery plan for a once in two-decade apocalyptic drop in demand.
-Money being invested in oil exploration is the lowest it has been since 2009. Oil prices are currently $82bbl for WTI and that is during winter. I think we will see $100-120 bbl come summer. After a decade of over investing in oil and the latest trends of banks turning away from funding evil oil under ESG political correctness, I just don't see this turning around quickly enough to rescue oil prices over the next two summers. High oil prices have always hammered the US economy.
-Europe jumped the gun on Omnicron, restrictions may plague summer travel again. Probably not, but it is an unknown. Our Pacific network is hanging by a thread.
-Fiscal instability due to inflation and attempts at rate increases. If assets come off their bubble valuations how will that affect the consumer's willingness to spend?
I'm just an everyday pilot, but if I can read the tea leaves then so can the guys in Atlanta who try to anticipate demand, plan networks and pass down the numbers to crew resources for staffing. It would be very wise of them to make smaller, as needed, AEs. The staffing decisions made over the past 18 months is the biggest management blunder I have seen in my career. However, no one asked me to come up with a survival and recovery plan for a once in two-decade apocalyptic drop in demand.
If economy (especially world) sours, that portends less demand and manageable oil prices despite constrained production.
Just laid over in Germany, there is very little remaining appetite for overly oppressive COVID measures from the public, I think this fall will bring a dramatic lessening of restrictions as govt/people realize that COVID will have to be lived with and managed, not eradicated.
Rate increases are inevitable and there are asset bubbles, but so much money has been pumped into the economy there will still be $$$$$ chasing travel opportunities as the consumer is not yet strapped. Many are better off post COVID than before.
I agree though that the crystal ball is coming in foggy, much to be decided going forward from politics and monetary policy. Best of luck to us all.
01-10-2022 | 12:37 PM
#509
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2015
Posts: 13,183
Likes: 638
From: ir.delta.com
Long time lurker here. My .02, but the company is sitting on its hands with 2022+, just too many unknowns. When I look at unknowns I think about:
-Money being invested in oil exploration is the lowest it has been since 2009. Oil prices are currently $82bbl for WTI and that is during winter. I think we will see $100-120 bbl come summer. After a decade of over investing in oil and the latest trends of banks turning away from funding evil oil under ESG political correctness, I just don't see this turning around quickly enough to rescue oil prices over the next two summers. High oil prices have always hammered the US economy.
-Europe jumped the gun on Omnicron, restrictions may plague summer travel again. Probably not, but it is an unknown. Our Pacific network is hanging by a thread.
-Fiscal instability due to inflation and attempts at rate increases. If assets come off their bubble valuations how will that affect the consumer's willingness to spend?
I'm just an everyday pilot, but if I can read the tea leaves then so can the guys in Atlanta who try to anticipate demand, plan networks and pass down the numbers to crew resources for staffing. It would be very wise of them to make smaller, as needed, AEs. The staffing decisions made over the past 18 months is the biggest management blunder I have seen in my career. However, no one asked me to come up with a survival and recovery plan for a once in two-decade apocalyptic drop in demand.
-Money being invested in oil exploration is the lowest it has been since 2009. Oil prices are currently $82bbl for WTI and that is during winter. I think we will see $100-120 bbl come summer. After a decade of over investing in oil and the latest trends of banks turning away from funding evil oil under ESG political correctness, I just don't see this turning around quickly enough to rescue oil prices over the next two summers. High oil prices have always hammered the US economy.
-Europe jumped the gun on Omnicron, restrictions may plague summer travel again. Probably not, but it is an unknown. Our Pacific network is hanging by a thread.
-Fiscal instability due to inflation and attempts at rate increases. If assets come off their bubble valuations how will that affect the consumer's willingness to spend?
I'm just an everyday pilot, but if I can read the tea leaves then so can the guys in Atlanta who try to anticipate demand, plan networks and pass down the numbers to crew resources for staffing. It would be very wise of them to make smaller, as needed, AEs. The staffing decisions made over the past 18 months is the biggest management blunder I have seen in my career. However, no one asked me to come up with a survival and recovery plan for a once in two-decade apocalyptic drop in demand.
01-10-2022 | 03:50 PM
#510
Moderator
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 7,236
Likes: 80
From: DAL 330
I had hoped for the same. My granddaughter however had covid in September. She tested positive this morning again. She is 11 and was getting her first vaccination shot tomorrow. Not sure natural immunity is working all that well. My daughter who had the exact same exposure has never had covid. She is double vaccinated and boosted and tested negative. I also have had covid and am vaccinated and tested negative. We all had basically the same exposure to a person who was positive early last week.
“ Not sure natural immunity is working that well.” As opposed to vaccine provided immunity which is working well? I hope your granddaughter is doing well.
Scoop
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
