A word of caution on reading too much into upgrade times. While it's true that every NB fleet has CAs hired in 2022, that may not hold going forward with the AE (Delta speak for position bid) drought we've been having, and it creating a bid backlog. I think when the next AE comes, we'll see a lot of senior FOs who have been on the fence throw in an upgrade because they fear the next AE may not come for a while and the trips suck either way.

Not to be a conspiracy theorist, but I wonder if the AE drought was an intentional move by management to make upgrades more senior. Word is that they weren't happy at all by how junior 73N and ER A have been going and how they had to cancel positions to keep it from going to people currently in indoc. By creating this backlog, it will probably cause CA to trend more senior.

There's also going to be a lot of cross fleet movement. I think we'll see WB B (wide body FO) go much more senior. 350 will likely become the most junior of the WBs everywhere except LAX. It's unlikely newhires will be seeing 330 any more, even in NYC.

Another wild card is that this is the first AE all the MOAB pilots (covid displacement) and most of 2021-2022s newhires have been unlocked for. That will also make things go more senior. I think many of these pilots want the WBs but were seat locked out, and that's the reason it's been going to newhires. This drought maximized those seat locks too.

 

Is there a reason for their dissatisfaction with the junior upgrades? Do they have data to show they're underperforming in some way?

 

My understanding is that they didn't want people getting A bids who haven't even passed initial IOE yet. Rumor is that NYC 73NA was going to go to a newhire still in indoc and BS had to pull the plug on a few positions to keep that from happening.

 

Almost like not having a plan is the plan.

A5S

 

"Son, the Russians don't take a dump without having a plan".

 

Oh ok that makes sense. To me this seems like such an easy "concession" to give the company during a negotiation. "Ok, no upgrade bids unless you've at least finished OE or have X hours in a DL aircraft" and then we ask for something we actually want in return.

 

To ask the question is to answer it.

Delta is a data driven business. But they’re not in the business of sharing it with every Lookie Lou.

It might simply be a matter if wanting to try and keep control of some of the Delta pilot standardization going forward with the massive influx of new hires from many different backgrounds. “Different” isn’t necessarily “wrong”, but aligning 15,000+ pilots to be replaceable cogs in a giant wheel doesn’t happen overnight.

 

No “concession” needed as this is an abhoration that will self correct. The only reason that it happened is because no other pilots wanted the position. Unfortunately, IMO, in a few years we’ll likely have pilots posting how they’ve been here over 3 years and still can’t even hold NYC CA position. Enjoy it while it lasts.

We fly, mgmt manages, they don’t “have” to award every position offered on an AE, but the ones they do have to be filled according to seniority.

The reason this is not addressed in the PWA is because it has been inconceivable for a vast period of major airline history.

 

Looking at the NB bid packs alpa sent out yesterday, I don’t think NB A is going to trend senior massively. Maybe a few will bite with the new rates, but many NB Bs will just enjoy the pay rise. Likewise with ER not getting banded, and 321neo matching it, I don’t think it sees a spike in seniority for more than an AE or two before it settles down again.

 

Are these for Jun rotations or the FRMT email we got yesterday. Would love to peek at Jun rotations if they’re out somewhere