Search

Notices

Peak Gas In China

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 08-31-2023 | 11:23 AM
  #51  
DeltaboundRedux's Avatar
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,906
Likes: 159
From: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Default

Originally Posted by gzsg
“Earlier this month, Chinese oil giant Sinopec made a surprise announcement that mostly flew under the radar. It's now expecting gasoline demand in China to peak this year, two years earlier than its previous outlooks.

The main culprit? The surging number of electric vehicles on the road.

As I've written previously, calling peaks is often a no-win endeavor for industry analysts.

The call will either be correct but seem obvious after the fact, or wrong and lead to years of mockery. But this isn't an analyst calling a peak; it's China's largest fuel distributor. Sinopec knows the fuel business, and more importantly, it has an interest in the business remaining robust. Saying it's all downhill from here for gasoline is quite a statement.”

This is extremely good news for future profit sharing and the air lines in general.

Electric cars are in the vertical part of the “S” curve.

The Chinese electric car isn’t the US electric car.

“Wuling Mini EV” - sells in China for about $4,500. No, I didn’t forget a “0”. New electric car under $5k.

Plenty of China developed EV’s for under $10k.

Of course, you can’t purchase these in the US. Heck, with the tax coupon, the government would be paying you to take delivery.

Lots of directions this can go and stick to the sprit of the OP. Starting with “Why can’t I use the tax credit from US Gov to buy one of these for my kid as a starter car?”

The Wuling is built in partnership with GMC. Ask yourself why you can’t easily purchase one of these EV utilitarian vehicles when the rock bottom cheapest brand new gas car available in America is currently $1800+?

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/l...-electric-cars

https://www.wired.com/story/review-w...guang-mini-ev/

(Yeah, the China one is a POS. I’ve had lean years making <$20k/yr with no transport and took the bus; I’d have killed for a <$5k car).
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 11:24 AM
  #52  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Jul 2013
Posts: 12,480
Likes: 1,051
Default

Originally Posted by Gunfighter
Production is only a portion of energy cost. Transmission and distribution make up the balance. By some estimates production may be as little as 1/2 to 1/3 of the end user cost for a kWh of electricity. If you are paying 12 cents per kWh, "free" fusion energy drops the user price to 6-9 cents per kWh.

WRT abandoning fossil fuels, there is good progress on the energy replacement front, but less progress on non energy uses. Plastics, steel, asphalt and lubricants are just a few products that come to mind. IMHO, the forced conversion to clean energy isn't purely about energy, it's about control. I don't like it.
What I love to see are the VPP initiatives in Texas. We need to find a way to capture excess energy from wind and solar and store it for when it's needed in the most efficient way possible. Some near zero loss solutions I've heard are repurposing old mines to turn them into giant mechanical batteries and the same concept using hydro. There's no reason why every house shouldn't have solar panels on the roof.
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 11:25 AM
  #53  
DeltaboundRedux's Avatar
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Nov 2020
Posts: 2,906
Likes: 159
From: Enoch Powell Enthusiast
Default

In reply to my own insightful and interesting post:

At the very least, a sub $5,000 car would destroy the US gas automobile market overnight, crash the power grid in 3 months, and make the current road system in major cites undriveable due to saturation, and China would eat our economic lunch.

Imagine a repeat of the Covid years when Long Beach had 100+ ships in harbor unable to be offloaded full of all the cripe Americans need.

Only now full of cars, not TP.

(We can’t all live like Peach Tree City golf cart enthusiasts).
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 11:39 AM
  #54  
rickair7777's Avatar
Prime Minister/Moderator
Veteran: Navy
 
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,882
Likes: 681
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Default

Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
I have no problem with renewables, except for the fact they are being shoved down our throat by the government in order to push a socialist agenda. But yeah once the technology gets viable I would love to have a wind turbine, and solar on my property in order to live off the grid. Geothermal too. But it shouldn't be mandated or subsidized.
Agree wholeheartedly. It has to be practical and economical... the it won't need to be mandated, much.

Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
As for fusion, yeah, that will be a game changer for humanity like fire, the wheel, the printing press, the car, and electricity itself. Essentially unlimited and nearly free energy. I think we'll have it within 50 years.
Probably safe timeline. There are couple potential paradigm changers in the works, especially involving field reversed configuration output. Kind of Hail Mary-ish but if it pans out, the world will change fast and possibly sooner than expected. In addition to clean power, such a thing could provide essentially unlimited power at low cost.
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 12:13 PM
  #55  
Banned
 
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,208
Likes: 6
Thumbs down

Originally Posted by CBreezy
The only way it'll become viable is though subsidies. How do you think aviation became viable? It wasn't because capitalism.
False. Fake news.

Just like any other product, once it becomes an equal or less expensive alternative, it will be open for mass adoption. And no, the government didn't create aviation (contrary to what the PHAK says).
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 12:17 PM
  #56  
Banned
 
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,208
Likes: 6
Default

Originally Posted by Hubcapped
This summer shattered almost every heat record ever recorded, all over the globe.
Assuming this is true, so what? Temps, like the stock market, rise and fall. Also it was a lot hotter before recorded history too.

Originally Posted by Hubcapped
maybe lets stick to the flight deck and let scientists be scientists.

unless you think its a grand conspiracy that involves thousands and thousands of people all collaborating whilst simultaneously and collectively not succumbing to the human condition of greed and revealing the socialist email telling them to lie.
It's a bit more subtle than that, but 98% of scientists agree with whoever is funding them.

Originally Posted by Hubcapped
we are choking our planet in carbon.
HA HA HA HA HA..... tell me... what is the optimal level of carbon that the planet needs?

Also, you are confusing pollution with carbon. This may not be your fault though because the climate propagandists confuse and muddle the two on purpose.

Originally Posted by Hubcapped
but people that dont think the climate is a huge issue are allowing their political extremism to get in the way of their logical thought process. A literal form of extremism.
The climate is only an issue because the propaganda tells people that it's an issue. Climate is naturally dynamic, not static. It's constantly changing.

Originally Posted by Hubcapped
signed: a dude that thinks both political parties in our great nation are self serving hot garbage
Well on that we agree.
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 12:19 PM
  #57  
Banned
 
Joined: Apr 2017
Posts: 4,208
Likes: 6
Default

Originally Posted by Gunfighter
Production is only a portion of energy cost. Transmission and distribution make up the balance. By some estimates production may be as little as 1/2 to 1/3 of the end user cost for a kWh of electricity. If you are paying 12 cents per kWh, "free" fusion energy drops the user price to 6-9 cents per kWh.
I don't believe that. I could be wrong, but that just doesn't sound right. Also, fixed vs variable costs.
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 12:37 PM
  #58  
rickair7777's Avatar
Prime Minister/Moderator
Veteran: Navy
 
Joined: Jan 2006
Posts: 44,882
Likes: 681
From: Engines Turn or People Swim
Default

Originally Posted by Gunfighter
Production is only a portion of energy cost. Transmission and distribution make up the balance. By some estimates production may be as little as 1/2 to 1/3 of the end user cost for a kWh of electricity. If you are paying 12 cents per kWh, "free" fusion energy drops the user price to 6-9 cents per kWh.

WRT abandoning fossil fuels, there is good progress on the energy replacement front, but less progress on non energy uses. Plastics, steel, asphalt and lubricants are just a few products that come to mind. IMHO, the forced conversion to clean energy isn't purely about energy, it's about control. I don't like it.
Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
I don't believe that. I could be wrong, but that just doesn't sound right. Also, fixed vs variable costs.
Transmission/distribution does cost more than generation today.

Some of that is artificial since the T/D is sort of a fixed cost, and some generation has shifted from power plants to on-site solar. So the T/D cost stays the same unless the infrastructure is slowly down-gauged over time. But then we consider EV's... unless most future EV's can be charged via on-site solar, we're actually going to need *more* T/D.

That's for current generation... fusion generation could probably be very local, as it's not hazardous and should scale down pretty small. So the transmission would probably not even be required, and local distribution could be adapted to local fusion generation, possibly a lot of it on-site. Plus on-site solar.

Large wind and solar farms might die on the vine, due to transmission costs. But that depends on the ultimate cost of fusion generation.... won't be free due to the need for gucci hardware, but should be infinitely scalable.
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 12:48 PM
  #59  
TransWorld's Avatar
Gets Everyday Off
 
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Default

Originally Posted by SideStickMonkey
American exceptionalism.

We should be able to start with clean air and water. Like that's pretty basic.

Sorry Exxon, can't dump your waste straight into the river. Shell, gonna have to put some scrubbers on your plants to keep particulates down.

It is the cost of doing business in the US. Unless you want to have the air quality of India and China...

At some point the adults have to stand up and say I want better things for my children and not pass down to them a giant mess.
All due respect to you. Exxon has not been able to dump their waste straight into the river for half a century. Shell has had scrubbers on their plants for half a century. True for the US and other first would countries.
Reply
Old 08-31-2023 | 01:18 PM
  #60  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Jun 2022
Posts: 2,238
Likes: 358
Default

Originally Posted by SonicFlyer
Assuming this is true, so what? Temps, like the stock market, rise and fall. Also it was a lot hotter before recorded history too.

It's a bit more subtle than that, but 98% of scientists agree with whoever is funding them.

.
lol ok, the conspiracy has run so deep that the people that record the temps are now in on it. And 98% of scientists have no institutional integrity and are willing to sacrifice their entire lifes work for money.

do you even listen to yourself? The logic test has not been passed, i award you zero points, and may god have mercy on your soul.

Look, im not advocating gutting our economy, im not advocating clean energy etc…..but ignoring reality as it comes stomping through the room to fulfill your political extremist agenda is lunacy. maybe go take an earth science class on the carbon cycle dude, this isnt rocket surgery.
Reply
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
whalesurfer
Cargo
8
08-06-2017 06:26 PM
captain_drew
Cargo
2
02-09-2016 06:54 PM
jungle
Money Talk
14
05-18-2012 05:28 AM
APC225
United
7
02-27-2012 08:55 PM
Diesel 10
Cargo
1
10-14-2005 04:53 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On



Your Privacy Choices