Originally Posted by FangsF15

Okay, so here are the numbers for the Jan AE

Jan AE Plug
WB B 145XX, 86.3% (Not surprising in NYC. BUT, only 9 awards senior was over 2000 numbers senior. That person was 72.6%)

...WB B did drop down again to the mid 14,500's, but only 9 people above the plug WB B on this AE was 2000 numbers senior to that, at 72.6%, which is much more in line with most of recent history (unsuprisingly, all 9+ of them were NYC 330 B). It's still too early to really tell where that might finally settle, especially once you take out a few statisitcal outliers of a few lucky bidders...

Originally Posted by MaxAutoBrakes

The junior NYC WBB awards line up with the seniority for folks hired in Jan 2022 (two year seat lock) and Jan 2023 (1 year seat lock for change aircraft if aircraft not in desired base). I think the new hire seat lock issue is slightly skewing the WBB awards.

Yes, those hired exactly two years ago are already at ~73% overall seniority. Insanity.

Originally Posted by PilotBases

NB A getting more senior bites these days.

Originally Posted by Gunfighter

No 2007 WBA, but there was room for one.

May/June training on the next couple AEs will keep me on the sidelines.

Originally Posted by tennisguru

This is the first AE where there was no risk of converting before 31 JAN which means people are locked into their current categories for vacation bidding. So those senior FO's may have been waiting to get one last year with good vacation weeks before making the jump.

Originally Posted by tennisguru

This is the first AE where there was no risk of converting before 31 JAN which means people are locked into their current categories for vacation bidding. So those senior FO's may have been waiting to get one last year with good vacation weeks before making the jump.

Originally Posted by Gunfighter

The risk of converting before 31 Jan has long past. The Nov 2023 AE had 31 Jan conversions only for base moves. Anything requiring training on the November AE was projected Feb training and April conversion. Conversion happens well after the award when training is required. If you complete training after the 16th, your conversion date is the beginning of the next bid period. A conversion before 31 Jan would require completion of sim training by Jan 16th. That risk hasn't been present for the last several AEs.

The more likely factor pushing senior FOs upgrading on this AE is that it offers the last opportunity for training before summer. May training and June OE will be in play on the February AE.

Originally Posted by FangsF15

Okay, so here are the numbers for the Jan AE

Jan AE Plug
WB A 46XX, 27.5%
WB B 145XX, 86.3% (Not surprisingly in NYC. BUT, only 9 awards senior was over 2000 numbers senior. That person was 72.6%)
NB A 145XX, 86%

NB A still holding rock steady, very slightly more senior by percentage at 86.0%. So for 7 AE's straight, it's been ~86-87% for NB A. I think we can safely say the NB A line has been fairly well established until something comes along to upset that balance. The biggest news is WB A in ATL WB A at 41XX, 1000 numbers lower than anytime I'm aware of - until the Dec AE, it took a mid 2XXX to hold WB A in ATL. NYC WB A is similar to the last couple bids, but with all the recent NYC 330A awards, that well may start to run dry. We'll have to wait and see. WB B did drop down again to the mid 14,500's, but only 9 people above the plug WB B on this AE was 2000 numbers senior to that, at 72.6%, which is much more in line with most of recent history (unsuprisingly, all 9+ of them were NYC 330 B). It's still too early to really tell where that might finally settle, especially once you take out a few statisitcal outliers of a few lucky bidders. The recent 350-1000 order announcement's timeline won't see any deliveries for at least 2 years, which means that won't drive any postings for at least 20 months. However, 'existing' 330/350 deliveries in '24 might keep award levels similar to where they have been over the last few AE's.

*Note: GH did hint with the 35K announcement there would be a new 350 base commensurate with those deliveries. Still well down the road, though...

**Note 2: The bottom award for a NH with a base change was not even on the Jan Seniority List posted on 2 Jan. NH's can still expect to be able to change bases/domiciles on thier original equipment within a month, or two at the outside.

Originally Posted by tennisguru

Technically yes, but I'm sure some pilots were more comfortable waiting a little bit to completely eliminate any risk. Monthly bids seem to have greatly reduced uncertainty but the history of this company jacking people around within a conversion window is still seared in many people's recent memories so it probably still affects bidding behavior to a degree. If you didn't want to train in the summer then why not bid on either of the last 2 AEs? That would also have assured no summer training.