I've been bidding WBA as the system wide plug for the last two years. My number hasn't come up yet. I'll sit out the next couple bids to avoid May/June training, then reevaluate. Leaving WBB gets tougher on every bid with the increase in relative seniority.

 

As we talk about the trend of the 764, it got me thinking. There appears to be a WB retirement strategy emerging. Just like NBs go to ATL to die, it looks like the smaller WBs go to TCON/FL/HNL/CUN to die. With the 763s getting wound down, GH spoke of removing them from intl ops by 2028, then domestic flying until being fully parked in 2030. We continue deliveries of 339s and 350s, which get put on longer stages / upgauges / routes desiring better hard product. The jets that get displaced are either straight 763s that get retired/domesticated or 764s/332/333s which in turn replace a 763. I'd imagine senior 7ER pilots used to doing intl will still shift to the 765 category. But whats the future of the ER category?

I know we're due to retire small numbers of the 757 every year now, with the ages between the youngest and oldest quite spread out. The youngest still have another 10+ years. Wasn't there an announcement about putting glass displays in some of that fleet? Could they hypothetically config the newer 757z with a new cockpit so it can merge categories with the 764? We have 10ish 763s doing domestic flying today. By 2030, seems the shoe in role for the 21 764s would be NYC-LAX-HNL kinda stuff until their own retirements.

 

Looking ahead to Feburary schedule bid awards:

First time in YEARS I've seen enough availabilty to swap trips around in PCS with adequate coverage.

Yes, it's the off season slow time.

Everyone who's become accustomed to 8 GS a month might want to consider that sharp shooting the contract (admirable) isn't an infinite resource.

Make hay while the sun shines.

 

Maybe in your category, mine is the exact opposite. We've had great coverage up until February, which should be an easy moth to have coverage. This will be the first month since I can remember that I wont be able to drop/swap at will. I think it will only get worse because people keep bidding out and they're not backfilling at all. I expect this summer to be a blood bath.

 

A 764 and glass modded 757 category. That’s a pornograghic thought to some, and the 765 nomenclature would make sense.

 

Stop! I can only get so turned on! [Insert Archer meme]

Seeing how I've been hearing that we're getting speed tapes when transiting through the school house for the past two years now, each time with a more convinced "really, we're actually going to start the retrofits this time!", I don't have much hope of them ever doing any major upgrades. At least now they have the panel posters with a speed tape on the walls of the sim briefing rooms so they must be serious about it.

I expect the ER category to become a pure 757 category once the final 767-300s are retired. Domestic/CUN/MEX/Caribbean and the special qual airports in Central and South America that nothing else can do with the same payload capacity and range. The other question will be what happens when the charter contract expires. Right now it seems to be going slightly more senior in the last few AEs than the rest of the narrowbodies on the A side. Makes sense, the trips improved quite a bit since the contract, although it could just be the winter drawdown that seems to hit the fleet more than others on average. I'm curious to see what the summer flying will look like post contract. As it starts trending more towards mostly a domestic 757 category, I expect its seniority to fall back in line with the other narrowbodies.

 

Florida shuttle.

 

johnfbell.com has the AE results analysis posted

 

I think you are right about that. GH and others have said heretofore they have focused on restoring Domestic and growing that revenue stream, and will shift to doing the same on the international side to balance the airline's revenue between international and domestic over time. But it will be a methodical, and measured pace which might feel glacial for some.

We might disagree about how much the historical WB A norms will change (though I'm less pessimistic about your 2014 hire to WB A 'prediction' than I was when you first made it), and what the definition of a 'wall' is (sorry, I had to...), but it sure will be fun to watch what happens, especially if we stay on this trajectory. FWIW, I hope you win your bet.

 

weirdly every day for NYC ER A is black in FEB already, some days only half required. All before the first PCS run. Last few months has been around 50/50 between black and blue days. Weird that we seem to be worse staffed now. Summer on reserve I only flew around 8 days average a month. I think in my category they’ve just been slow replacing guys bidding off to true WB. Curious what’s gonna happen this spring/summer staffing wise for us.