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Old 02-05-2024 | 07:28 AM
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Originally Posted by Apophis
So as a very new hire still in training who doesn’t want to commute any longer than he has to, am I pretty much stuck committing to NYC on the ER for the foreseeable future?
If you want ATL or LAX on the ER, put an unrestricted (no qualifiers) bid in for it. There will be some awarded in both. And with 40 LAX ER vacancies, there is a 100% chance you will get that if you bid for it.
Old 02-05-2024 | 07:36 AM
  #322  
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Originally Posted by StayFrosty
I’m wondering if the announcements and subsequent deliveries of the WB’s pushes people to hold off and bid WB B and loosens the NB A slots. I’m still a number of months away (only 92% system) but I’m one of the few hoping for that 73N A in NYC slot. 🤪.
The fact there are zero NYC captain positions posted means the few backills will go senior - more senior than the 87% system seniority which has steadily defined the junior captain award for the last (almost) year. I'd say there is zero chance at 92%, but denfinitely have your bid in for it anyway.
Old 02-05-2024 | 07:48 AM
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
The fact there are zero NYC captain positions posted means the few backills will go senior - more senior than the 87% system seniority which has steadily defined the junior captain award for the last (almost) year. I'd say there is zero chance at 92%, but denfinitely have your bid in for it anyway.
For sure, I agree. I was being more facetious than anything else. In reality I have any 73N/320/7ER A bid in with no stipulations in all bases as I’ll commute regardless until I can hold my home base. Even contemplating throwing 717A bid in but long run that wouldn't be good for me. I don’t think it will happen for me until well past June but never know, weird things happen sometimes. In addition to staying frosty, one has to always be Semper Gumby. 🥃
Old 02-05-2024 | 07:57 AM
  #324  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
If you want ATL or LAX on the ER, put an unrestricted (no qualifiers) bid in for it. There will be some awarded in both. And with 40 LAX ER vacancies, there is a 100% chance you will get that if you bid for it.
Done and done. (ATL by the way, apologies I didn’t qualify that.)

Appreciate your help!
Old 02-05-2024 | 09:37 AM
  #325  
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Originally Posted by StayFrosty
As expected not a large AE with further smaller AE’s April-June. While expected since a lot of the instructors go back to the line for the summer surge in flying, a little disappointing sting. Good luck to anyone playing the game!
Does this signal the end of probationary pilots getting Captain awards? Are we entering an era of more traditional seniority progression now that the crest of retirement tidal wave has passed in 2023? What say you tea leaf people?

I'm usually 100% wrong in anything I try and predict in aviation, so maybe this will age like milk and 2014+ hires will see WBA later this year
Old 02-05-2024 | 09:45 AM
  #326  
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Originally Posted by game
Does this signal the end of probationary pilots getting Captain awards? Are we entering an era of more traditional seniority progression now that the crest of retirement tidal wave has passed in 2023? What say you tea leaf people?

I'm usually 100% wrong in anything I try and predict in aviation, so maybe this will age like milk and 2014+ hires will see WBA later this year
Yes I think that ended already. Probably ~5 year upgrade for people hired today.
Old 02-05-2024 | 09:48 AM
  #327  
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Originally Posted by game
Does this signal the end of probationary pilots getting Captain awards? Are we entering an era of more traditional seniority progression now that the crest of retirement tidal wave has passed in 2023? What say you tea leaf people?

I'm usually 100% wrong in anything I try and predict in aviation, so maybe this will age like milk and 2014+ hires will see WBA later this year
Widget Seniority probably has more detailed info, but looking at the retirements in the Seniority Progression by Year section of the ALPA app its showing 450-550 retirements a year steady until 2032, where it drops to about 350ish and holds around that for a while. So even if we don't hire to grow and just maintain 17,000 pilots, someone hired today is still gonna move about a 3rd of the way up the list in less than a decade. The curve seems to become more linear between 2035-2045 and then retirements pick up slightly again.
Old 02-05-2024 | 09:54 AM
  #328  
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Originally Posted by Meme In Command
They've been "reactivating" the 717's for a while now. Are there still planes waiting to hit the line?

Yet the cateogry keeps skrinking...
Old 02-05-2024 | 10:02 AM
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Originally Posted by game
Does this signal the end of probationary pilots getting Captain awards? Are we entering an era of more traditional seniority progression now that the crest of retirement tidal wave has passed in 2023? What say you tea leaf people?

I'm usually 100% wrong in anything I try and predict in aviation, so maybe this will age like milk and 2014+ hires will see WBA later this year
Data somewhat supports this, especially those hired today. I was hired summer 23 and have moved 1% in seniority coming in at 92% in February. Keeping that math going, I will be 87% in July which is 73N A plug territory making an award in just about a year on property. With the MAX delays, it could push it out even longer. All subject to change of course, past performance not indicative of future results.
Old 02-05-2024 | 10:12 AM
  #330  
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Originally Posted by FangsF15
If you want ATL or LAX on the ER, put an unrestricted (no qualifiers) bid in for it. There will be some awarded in both. And with 40 LAX ER vacancies, there is a 100% chance you will get that if you bid for it.
Should have been more clear about my initial response. I’m only interested in getting back to ATL. Is there a chance that might occur on this AE, or am I looking at another 2-3?
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