I recognize lamenting human nature seen though the cover of anonymity of the internet is akin to pizzing in the wind. But it needs to be said.

/threaddrift

 

It takes a big **** to pizz against the wind.

 

Well there"s some perspective. Hope you're doing well!

 

I'm a junior CA at SWA. I'd tell you to go, but with full knowledge that:

* Delta has been hiring aggressively since 2014.
* Since 2014, Delta has been known to hire lower time and less experienced pilots vs. older higher time pilots which loosely translates to much younger pilots citing "trainability."
* According to FAPA, since Delta started hiring in 2014, they have hired 12,166 pilots. You can also see on APC under Delta legacy how many retirements they have. Needless to say, it's tapering off by a significant number relative to their pilot seniority list count.
* The advancement and the stories you've seen on APC about people walking in and getting 757 CA within 3-4 months on the property is just not there anymore. The numbers speak for themselves. WB captain? Barring a major order, be sure you're happy with a narrowbody captain career with several choices of platforms if you really care about it or be perfectly content retiring as a WB FO.

We just went through the fantastic hiring spree that is slightly slowing down. Just looking at the those numbers by FAPA, I think Delta hired their juniormost WB CA a while back, and they're quite a bit senior to you.

People advising you to leave or to stay have literally nothing to lose, but you do. Gambling is always fun with someone else's money. This move could cost you millions in compounded dollars at the end of your career..... or this may not be important to you.

Good luck with your decision.

 

State of Hiring:
DL 11,103 pilots since 2014
UA 11,104 pilots since 2014
AA 9,520 pilots since 2014
All classes average mid 30’s pilots

Conclusion: Disregard all of this, “DL has done the most “xyz” since “xyz” date”. They’ve done no more hiring than UA since 2014, only AA offers the “less young pilots hired” advantage by 1,500 #’s. There is a massive retirement wave ahead by historical standards for all carries. DL retiring the most by 2030, then UA until 2050, then DL finishes 2065 with most retirees, AA overtakes both by a fair margin. There is a ton for you to be excited about.

In fact, DL is the only carrier whose intended piloting numbers have been realized which is 1,000/yr for the foreseeable future and were achieved in 2024. Due to their commitment with Airbus products.
AA’s hiring had a huge wrench thrown in it to the point of frozen dates, though 2025 looks promising but will not be 2,000 due to Boeing/financial struggle.
UA’s 24’ hiring was not realized due to FAA audit and Boeing. And 2025 outlook is dismal (comparatively, still great), they wanted 2,000 and are planning now for 900 and likely hundred less (late 2025 classes can be canceled potentially as needs change).

WN is a solid career. Low cost model though is failing steadily and my bet is some LCC’s will be gone mid-career for you with WN being the last survivor of the low cost models and you’ll be flying 737’s forever (that’s rough).

Delta has huge leads within the industry in market cap/profits (globally), reputation, hard/soft product, performance metrics, dominates domestic U.S., less unionized workforce, WAY less debt than AA UA/post huge orderbook, growing fast in MCO/TPA, AUS, BOS, a huge NB order book, and solid WB order book that is not yet finished, I’d imagine about two more WB orders/options exercised or cheap/used purchases over next couple years as DL is primed for their intl. expansion now that domestic is take care of.
Couple that with thousands of retirements over the years. You will have an excellent career, the only doom/gloom to worry about is unforeseen black swans ahead that you have no control of. With Delta you’ll work/travel all over the world, be able to pick you flavor of airplane/schedule, and get paid to take naps. Aside from that you should be nothing but excited to start at any legacy, especially DL for your case.

Fortune favors the bold, wish you the very best

 

Just to play devil’s advocate, who’s to say SWA won’t ditch the LCC model and start to operate more like a legacy over the next 30years? Isn’t that what Elliott is trying to do? Southwest said they would never do assigned seats and redeyes and now here we are…

The Southwest today is not the Southwest tomorrow. The Delta today is not the Delta tomorrow. Either way it will be a good career. Any of the big 4 are solid careers. But just to keep everything in perspective…30 years is a long time and so much can happen. It would be more wiser to look at the financial/time cost of switching and see what that looks like over 30 years.

I personally was just in this situation…I’ve made similar posts on whether to leave SWA for Delta/United and I came to the conclusion that if I’m going to leave, it would have to be by next year at the latest. 2026 for me is way too late because I’ll be on year 4 pay going to year 5 in May of that year. The seniority/time loss and financial hit would put me so far behind in my career that it would have to be my absolute dream to justify switching. At the end of the day I value quality of life over what I fly. Just keep perspective. Figure out what you value and what matters to you. You can’t go wrong, but if you wait too long it can suck a lot more. If this was 2022/2023 and things were still moving I would say go for it in a heartbeat and don’t look back. Now that the industry has changed and there is potential global war and other instabilities in the world, I would proceed with more caution.

If it’s your dream to be at Delta though, go and don’t look back. If you’re chasing a WB, I would take a serious look at what you’re about to give up just to chase a plane.

 

Why did they want that? Because those 2 did the lion's share of international flying. In fact their demises is the primary reason the current Big 3 have the international flying that they do. AA squandered quite a bit of theirs but that's another story.

 

Devil Dog musta done a stint as a USMC recruiter.... 🍻

Something I forgot to add too, and that's the number of retirements at Delta going forward. The data I'm going by is on APC under Legacy > Delta and scroll down.... Basically, 400-500 per year until 2032 at which point it tapers off to less than 400 per year. Delta's seniority list has right around 17.300 pilots. Just as comparison, Southwest will be retiring the similar numbers as Delta going forward, but it's against 11,700 pilots meaning Delta's big retirement wave is behind us, Southwest's retirement wave is coming up and it's based on percentages of the seniority list.

Understand that I'm not trashing Delta by any means. I just want to show the OP and any lurker the reality, and at this point in time given all the numbers, for many ages, it's a fantastic narrowbody captain career with your choice of airframes or a WB FO career. Now... could Delta place a very large order for A350's and aim to recover international flying that their current JV partners are flying for them so you could get your WB captain position? Absolutely. Is it likely? Well......

If I were on the rock bottom of the seniority list, it would really boil down to where I live and where I WANT to live. Airframe choices are great. WB dreams are even greater. But there is that pesky math:

At what point does it not make financial sense to leave given your current position/payscale/time remaining in the industry?
At what point does it not make sense to leave due to seniority list makeup of the people above you and the number of retirements?

Contrary to what some folks think, math isn't racist, sexist, bigoted; it gives zero focks about your feelings, your enthusiasm or lack thereof; you may choose to ignore math but that's usually at your own peril. You're the one who has to do your own self-assessment. If I were 31, and I lived in a Delta domicile, I'd probably go, but I'd go knowing the numbers and what all that means. If I can live with them... great. If for whatever you're hesitant... I'd stay. The statement "fortune favors the bold" is a fantastic recruiter slogan because it's motivating, but remember, it's your a55 in the sling, not the recruiter's.

I do think that SWA will fundamentally change over the next 10 years. The BOD is different and consists of airline veterans. That's another risk... it could be fantastic. Or it could really fall on its face. I do believe we're gonna see another airframe or three on the property within the next 10 years, but that's just me. BoJo has to perform or he'll be shown the door as he lost his top cover from Gary, and I do like the current makeup of our BOD. I do think that MAX 7 will be certified in relatively short order given the results of the election and the impending war on bureaucracy. I also don't think Elliott is a bad thing at this point - it's keeping people on their toes and we need that.

 

17000-ish pilots, retiring 500 a year. 40% NB-A is around 4300. That is 25 years to 40% 320A in ATL. If you upgrade early, that is A LOT of holidays and weekends.

 

But this year 75% AtL320A had the holidays off.