Be me, have about 31ish years till 65. Am I a fool for entertaining the idea of leaving a good job to wear a hat?

At SWA for just over a year now, sitting a couple % from the bottom. Live in a domicile but can’t hold it due to no hiring till 2026 at the earliest (max7 depending), have ~1h commute. Will retire ~10% if there’s 0 growth. Overall, I don’t have a lot of complaints, will make fat stacks of dollar bills, easily max out the 401k, vacation and scheduling swap are nice. Though 30 years of 73 3 leg days 13-15 days a month isn’t a highlight.

Have a CJO at delta, expected spring class date maybe, who knows. Don’t live in base but would be willing to move to ATL (okay Chattanooga or Athens), maybe SLC or SEA. Seniority calculator says 16-18% with no growth if I started today. Main appeal is the possibility of different types of flying/planes, WB international (as b, wouldn’t make A), and that delta is actually making money.

Is the 15 years to upgrade if hired in 2025 true?

My main concerns at SW is the current inability to generate a profit, being controlled by some wall street leeches, and ending 2025 with fewer 73s than 2024. I’m sure elliott would let me go so they can buy a bigger yacht.

Thoughts?

 

Did you not like the plethora of good responses you got on /r/flying yesterday from WN and DAL pilots?

Upgrade times are currently at about 5 years.

 

it’s worth the jump. Even being junior your QOL is great.

 

That's what everyone, including myself, told OP yesterday.

 

Isn’t WB A at 25% system seniority?

 

Just substitute WN for B6, AS, NK, AA and UA and read all the previous threads. Not this aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagain.

 

According to Fang's AE analysis, WB A seems to hold right around 25% system wide.

 

Everyone I know who's left WN for DL has zero regrets. Downside is the fast seniority is over, you will move up the list at 500 people per year and that's pretty much it.

 

To the OP, supposedly some DL management-type said they think 15 year upgrades are coming for future hires. I honestly don't see it, at least not in the 5- year horizon. Check out this thread, which has a chart that is easy to see that the overall % to upgrade to NB Captain has been quite consistent, and getting very slowly more senior over the last 18months, going from 87% down to about 85% now. That might continue to trend a little more senior over the next few years, but at least for now, it seems about 85% overall seniority is a fair estimate.

So, the question is: how long would it take YOU to get to 85ish% if you start in the new year? Even if only hire for attrition (zero growth), on a list of 17,300, you'd need to get about 2500 people below you to have the very first opportunity to upgrade at 85%. If you got to 3000 below you, you'd probably have a few choices. We are retiring ~500 a year for the next 8 years. So, realistically, somewhere around 5+ years with no growth (hiring about 500 annually).

However, almoset noone thinks we won't continue to grow. The recent investor day was very bullish, and said to expect 3-4% growth going forward. So, if we grow a net of about 500 pilots a year (Retire 500, but hire 1000), that will shorten the first NB Captain opportunity to about 4 years. If things continute to trend a little more senior, and drop to say 80%, that would have a balancing effect on that growth, and keep the first upgrade opportunity at about 5 years.

Finally, if age 67 happens, that will obviouysly change the calculus. Noone really knows how many might choose to continue flying past 65, but I'd bet it will be a meaningful number. I'd guess that a fair estimate is a 2-year extension will result in at least a 1-year delay on upgrade timing.

That said, if you are willing to move to a DL domicile, I can't think of a single reason to stay at SWA (given what you wrote). Much more stable company, much more variety of flying, and much more money to be made. It's really pretty much all upside for someone in your position, IMO.

Good luck!

 

GTFO. The Delta you know is a safer bet than the SWA you don't know now that Elliott is pulling the strings.