Leave WN for Dal
 

Be me, have about 31ish years till 65. Am I a fool for entertaining the idea of leaving a good job to wear a hat?

At SWA for just over a year now, sitting a couple % from the bottom. Live in a domicile but can’t hold it due to no hiring till 2026 at the earliest (max7 depending), have ~1h commute. Will retire ~10% if there’s 0 growth. Overall, I don’t have a lot of complaints, will make fat stacks of dollar bills, easily max out the 401k, vacation and scheduling swap are nice. Though 30 years of 73 3 leg days 13-15 days a month isn’t a highlight.

Have a CJO at delta, expected spring class date maybe, who knows. Don’t live in base but would be willing to move to ATL (okay Chattanooga or Athens), maybe SLC or SEA. Seniority calculator says 16-18% with no growth if I started today. Main appeal is the possibility of different types of flying/planes, WB international (as b, wouldn’t make A), and that delta is actually making money.

Is the 15 years to upgrade if hired in 2025 true?

My main concerns at SW is the current inability to generate a profit, being controlled by some wall street leeches, and ending 2025 with fewer 73s than 2024. I’m sure elliott would let me go so they can buy a bigger yacht.

Thoughts?

Did you not like the plethora of good responses you got on /r/flying yesterday from WN and DAL pilots?

Upgrade times are currently at about 5 years.

it’s worth the jump. Even being junior your QOL is great.

That's what everyone, including myself, told OP yesterday.

Isn’t WB A at 25% system seniority?

Just substitute WN for B6, AS, NK, AA and UA and read all the previous threads. Not this aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagain.

According to Fang's AE analysis, WB A seems to hold right around 25% system wide.

Everyone I know who's left WN for DL has zero regrets. Downside is the fast seniority is over, you will move up the list at 500 people per year and that's pretty much it.

To the OP, supposedly some DL management-type said they think 15 year upgrades are coming for future hires. I honestly don't see it, at least not in the 5- year horizon. Check out this thread, which has a chart that is easy to see that the overall % to upgrade to NB Captain has been quite consistent, and getting very slowly more senior over the last 18months, going from 87% down to about 85% now. That might continue to trend a little more senior over the next few years, but at least for now, it seems about 85% overall seniority is a fair estimate.

So, the question is: how long would it take YOU to get to 85ish% if you start in the new year? Even if only hire for attrition (zero growth), on a list of 17,300, you'd need to get about 2500 people below you to have the very first opportunity to upgrade at 85%. If you got to 3000 below you, you'd probably have a few choices. We are retiring ~500 a year for the next 8 years. So, realistically, somewhere around 5+ years with no growth (hiring about 500 annually).

However, almoset noone thinks we won't continue to grow. The recent investor day was very bullish, and said to expect 3-4% growth going forward. So, if we grow a net of about 500 pilots a year (Retire 500, but hire 1000), that will shorten the first NB Captain opportunity to about 4 years. If things continute to trend a little more senior, and drop to say 80%, that would have a balancing effect on that growth, and keep the first upgrade opportunity at about 5 years.

Finally, if age 67 happens, that will obviouysly change the calculus. Noone really knows how many might choose to continue flying past 65, but I'd bet it will be a meaningful number. I'd guess that a fair estimate is a 2-year extension will result in at least a 1-year delay on upgrade timing.

That said, if you are willing to move to a DL domicile, I can't think of a single reason to stay at SWA (given what you wrote). Much more stable company, much more variety of flying, and much more money to be made. It's really pretty much all upside for someone in your position, IMO.

Good luck!

GTFO. The Delta you know is a safer bet than the SWA you don't know now that Elliott is pulling the strings.

Make the jump.
31 is still very young.

DL is poised for growth, especially intl. growth as their domestic side is established. They don’t publicize flashy future plans.. approx. retiring 3% a year with 2-3% growth behind it at 1,000/pilots a yr for “foreseeable” future.
Thats 5-6% movement a year. Widget Sen is amazing but also assuming 0 growth (which could very well occur or shrink).
Work with what you know. WN will never operate WB nor grow to the degree at majors will, in fact LLC system is deteriorating.
Is 10% system seniority the same as 10% system at DL? Only you can answer.

Latest -rumor- from LCP meeting I’ve heard is DL is hungry for another WB order & likes the idea of leveraging a 787 deal with Boeing debacle for cheaper, again a rumor.
P.S. you will be WBA at some point hired at 31 yr old, that 15 yr upgrade has 0 logic behind it for NB

He has 31 years until retirement which means he's 34. Still young ish, but he'll be behind tons of younger people his entire career. Still a decent career most likely.

How come every single freaken FO thinking of leaving SWA needs to create their own thread like the 30 other "Shuld I leave SWA for xxx" threads around this site doesn't contain much of the same information?

There are a lot of them. APC should maybe have a “Should I?…” subsection maybe for all these, if only just to organize them better, since they’re kind of scattered all over the place.

Or they could go a step further and create an AI-based decision making tool that would ask a bunch of questions, then spit out an answer…

“How senior are you at your current airline?” “Do you live in base?” “Will you live in base at the new airline?” “Do you like wearing a hat and wrinkled double-breasted blazer that doesn’t fit properly?”

And one other question; why did you go there in the first place if you're just going to leave?

I never thought of SW as a 'stepping stone' type job where you go to build time and credentials to get hired at AA/UA or DL, if you had the quals for SW you probably already meet the mins for the others, so...why even start at SW if it's not your life long dream?

​​​​​Bird in hand.

https://widgetseniority.com

There is a section for new hires if you are looking for a data driven decision.

Because he lacks life experience, thinks his situation is somehow unique, and needs constant validation, just like every other one of these threads.

OP already got the usual answers on his reddit post from yesterday. A modicum of research would have already drawn the conclusions for him. But somehow that wasn't sufficient and he needs his hand held.

Or he simply wants a wide spectrum of opinions before making his opinion before an approaching class date forces an opinion. It's relatively cheap insurance that he hasn't forgotten anything that might be important - the only real cost being a few demeaning comments from people who were not forced to either read or respond to his comments either here or on reddit.

If he wanted a wide spectrum of opinions, why didn't he ask this on the WN forum?

Getting stuck at WN would 100x better than getting stuck at a regional. WN stopped hiring probably two months after I got hired there. I’m gone now but if the whole industry slowed, I would’ve been filled with regret not taking the best opportunity in front of me waiting for my #1.

All of these dozens of "should I" posts read like cringey singles ads. There needs to be some kind of acronym sytem here, like there are on single ads.

"DWM, 50, ISO financially secure, fit S/M/DWF, 25-30..."

some kind of shorthand like that would help.

how many more of these are we going to have before pilots understand you can’t predict the future 30 years out.

I gotta say, I really don't understand the need to dump on someone. And how ironic to say he's "seeking validation" in posting... Look at the OP's post count. It's 3. Maybe he forgot he created an account in the last year. Who knows? Does it even matter? I was today years old when I found out a reddit subforum existed, mainly because I have never once been on reddit. So maybe he asked there, and then somehow remembered APC was a thing, and thought there were some knowlegable folks that might have some additional insight he had not yet thought of. And, the horror of not knowing how to search with only 2 prior posts!

I mean, that's ultimately half of what this place is for. Learning. And spreading deeper knowlege. So stop crapping on people who are just trying to learn. And if you don't like it, don't read the thread.

I made his decision 28 years ago (sort of) and so did one of my classmates at NW. Let me give a top ten list of the reasons I look back with zero regrets for shunning the LUV:

1) Not having to fly a 737 forever.
2) Pension (this is not a duplicable for you); it is a crap pension, messed up by bankruptcy, but it's more than 3000 times greater than the WN pension and it will help. The 401K rocks also.
3) Average 450 annual block hours per year - try that at WN. Paid for more than 2x that number of hours.
4) Many more hours/years as an international widebody pilot than in the narrowbody grind.
5) Enough cycles back into NB flying to remind me of how much better WB flying is. It's like working for an entirely different airline; mostly hassle-free with rare forced sked changes.
6) Variety of route structures and destinatinations.
7) Ability to choose relative seniority not just by domicile, but by seat and aircraft also.
8) We've had PBS for a long, long time. Yes, it's better.
9) I got to fly every model of 747 except the SP and -8. Our current fleet of WB aircraft are better in many ways, but if we brought the 747 back, I'd leap on it.
10) It's a distinction from #1, sort of: I had the option to fly the 737, but chose not to. My ears, cranium and spine thank me.

Many of the points I listed are still applicable today. However I do believe the Southwest Koolaid was more potent back in the day. The culture was more enticing. I think Koolaid has been diluted as the company grew over the years and with major management changes. Many of the reasons I might have had to stick with Southwest have faded, while the pros for DL are still pretty solid. It's not perfect, and there are things that I despise (very few).

Not sure whether a historical viewpoint is of any benefit to you .... but the WN/DL swap suited me very well.

Yes but the other half is for dumping on people so you can see the predicament.

Make the jump my friend. Yes it’s not 6 month upgrades anymore, but even at 5-7 years that’s the same I had as a front of the wave hire. Like Fangs said I don’t see 15 yr upgrades barring some extreme event.

I have answered this before in other threads so I invite you to search for those, but I know how difficult and even emotional the choice process can be. Only you will know the right answer for you. I did the same thing back in the summer of '23 and not for a second regret it. Yes, I took a paycut in the beginning but my QOL is higher by a much greater magnitude. I have become a happier person which in turn makes my family happier which in the end let's face it, is the only thing that really matters. I write this while sitting on days off in Europe with my family enjoying Christmas markets and thru the same type of swapping (think ELITT) and one Personal Drop (P/D) am off from 21 Nov to 12 Dec (no vacation days used for this). Yes we have PBS, let it not scare you, the flying I am awarded, even on the 737 is again of greater quality, basically all the Carribean and Mexico I want. In the mood for tacos and windsurfing? Bid some Cancun and Aruba. Want some Pura Vida? How about a Liberia bid. You get my point, the flying Widget does is just different than LUV. I enjoy longer layovers to listen to music in Nashville, visit family and friends in Times Square, sit on South Beach, and get some windsurfing in down in Aruba. I used to live so I could work, hunt those TFP and say thank you to the SMF hotel. Now, I actually enjoy going to work and have really changed my views to future WB flying and getting that experience. For reference, I have about 20 years left, so my time horizon is different, read worse than yours. As others have said, it is a different airline. Biggest takeaway, the money is also here like SWA, but what we have that I did not before, are choices and it is hard to place a value on choices. Only you can. Wishing you success regardless what decisions you make. If you have any questions, don't hesitate to reach out.

Fly safe!

When I got hired 60 years ago, everybody wanted to go to TWA and PanAm, just sayin'.

I recognize lamenting human nature seen though the cover of anonymity of the internet is akin to pizzing in the wind. But it needs to be said.

/threaddrift

It takes a big **** to pizz against the wind.

Well there"s some perspective. Hope you're doing well!

I'm a junior CA at SWA. I'd tell you to go, but with full knowledge that:

* Delta has been hiring aggressively since 2014.
* Since 2014, Delta has been known to hire lower time and less experienced pilots vs. older higher time pilots which loosely translates to much younger pilots citing "trainability."
* According to FAPA, since Delta started hiring in 2014, they have hired 12,166 pilots. You can also see on APC under Delta legacy how many retirements they have. Needless to say, it's tapering off by a significant number relative to their pilot seniority list count.
* The advancement and the stories you've seen on APC about people walking in and getting 757 CA within 3-4 months on the property is just not there anymore. The numbers speak for themselves. WB captain? Barring a major order, be sure you're happy with a narrowbody captain career with several choices of platforms if you really care about it or be perfectly content retiring as a WB FO.

We just went through the fantastic hiring spree that is slightly slowing down. Just looking at the those numbers by FAPA, I think Delta hired their juniormost WB CA a while back, and they're quite a bit senior to you.

People advising you to leave or to stay have literally nothing to lose, but you do. Gambling is always fun with someone else's money. This move could cost you millions in compounded dollars at the end of your career..... or this may not be important to you.

Good luck with your decision.

State of Hiring:
DL 11,103 pilots since 2014
UA 11,104 pilots since 2014
AA 9,520 pilots since 2014
All classes average mid 30’s pilots

Conclusion: Disregard all of this, “DL has done the most “xyz” since “xyz” date”. They’ve done no more hiring than UA since 2014, only AA offers the “less young pilots hired” advantage by 1,500 #’s. There is a massive retirement wave ahead by historical standards for all carries. DL retiring the most by 2030, then UA until 2050, then DL finishes 2065 with most retirees, AA overtakes both by a fair margin. There is a ton for you to be excited about.

In fact, DL is the only carrier whose intended piloting numbers have been realized which is 1,000/yr for the foreseeable future and were achieved in 2024. Due to their commitment with Airbus products.
AA’s hiring had a huge wrench thrown in it to the point of frozen dates, though 2025 looks promising but will not be 2,000 due to Boeing/financial struggle.
UA’s 24’ hiring was not realized due to FAA audit and Boeing. And 2025 outlook is dismal (comparatively, still great), they wanted 2,000 and are planning now for 900 and likely hundred less (late 2025 classes can be canceled potentially as needs change).

WN is a solid career. Low cost model though is failing steadily and my bet is some LCC’s will be gone mid-career for you with WN being the last survivor of the low cost models and you’ll be flying 737’s forever (that’s rough).

Delta has huge leads within the industry in market cap/profits (globally), reputation, hard/soft product, performance metrics, dominates domestic U.S., less unionized workforce, WAY less debt than AA UA/post huge orderbook, growing fast in MCO/TPA, AUS, BOS, a huge NB order book, and solid WB order book that is not yet finished, I’d imagine about two more WB orders/options exercised or cheap/used purchases over next couple years as DL is primed for their intl. expansion now that domestic is take care of.
Couple that with thousands of retirements over the years. You will have an excellent career, the only doom/gloom to worry about is unforeseen black swans ahead that you have no control of. With Delta you’ll work/travel all over the world, be able to pick you flavor of airplane/schedule, and get paid to take naps. Aside from that you should be nothing but excited to start at any legacy, especially DL for your case.

Fortune favors the bold, wish you the very best

Just to play devil’s advocate, who’s to say SWA won’t ditch the LCC model and start to operate more like a legacy over the next 30years? Isn’t that what Elliott is trying to do? Southwest said they would never do assigned seats and redeyes and now here we are…

The Southwest today is not the Southwest tomorrow. The Delta today is not the Delta tomorrow. Either way it will be a good career. Any of the big 4 are solid careers. But just to keep everything in perspective…30 years is a long time and so much can happen. It would be more wiser to look at the financial/time cost of switching and see what that looks like over 30 years.

I personally was just in this situation…I’ve made similar posts on whether to leave SWA for Delta/United and I came to the conclusion that if I’m going to leave, it would have to be by next year at the latest. 2026 for me is way too late because I’ll be on year 4 pay going to year 5 in May of that year. The seniority/time loss and financial hit would put me so far behind in my career that it would have to be my absolute dream to justify switching. At the end of the day I value quality of life over what I fly. Just keep perspective. Figure out what you value and what matters to you. You can’t go wrong, but if you wait too long it can suck a lot more. If this was 2022/2023 and things were still moving I would say go for it in a heartbeat and don’t look back. Now that the industry has changed and there is potential global war and other instabilities in the world, I would proceed with more caution.

If it’s your dream to be at Delta though, go and don’t look back. If you’re chasing a WB, I would take a serious look at what you’re about to give up just to chase a plane.

Why did they want that? Because those 2 did the lion's share of international flying. In fact their demises is the primary reason the current Big 3 have the international flying that they do. AA squandered quite a bit of theirs but that's another story.

Devil Dog musta done a stint as a USMC recruiter.... 🍻

Something I forgot to add too, and that's the number of retirements at Delta going forward. The data I'm going by is on APC under Legacy > Delta and scroll down.... Basically, 400-500 per year until 2032 at which point it tapers off to less than 400 per year. Delta's seniority list has right around 17.300 pilots. Just as comparison, Southwest will be retiring the similar numbers as Delta going forward, but it's against 11,700 pilots meaning Delta's big retirement wave is behind us, Southwest's retirement wave is coming up and it's based on percentages of the seniority list.

Understand that I'm not trashing Delta by any means. I just want to show the OP and any lurker the reality, and at this point in time given all the numbers, for many ages, it's a fantastic narrowbody captain career with your choice of airframes or a WB FO career. Now... could Delta place a very large order for A350's and aim to recover international flying that their current JV partners are flying for them so you could get your WB captain position? Absolutely. Is it likely? Well......

If I were on the rock bottom of the seniority list, it would really boil down to where I live and where I WANT to live. Airframe choices are great. WB dreams are even greater. But there is that pesky math:

At what point does it not make financial sense to leave given your current position/payscale/time remaining in the industry?
At what point does it not make sense to leave due to seniority list makeup of the people above you and the number of retirements?

Contrary to what some folks think, math isn't racist, sexist, bigoted; it gives zero focks about your feelings, your enthusiasm or lack thereof; you may choose to ignore math but that's usually at your own peril. You're the one who has to do your own self-assessment. If I were 31, and I lived in a Delta domicile, I'd probably go, but I'd go knowing the numbers and what all that means. If I can live with them... great. If for whatever you're hesitant... I'd stay. The statement "fortune favors the bold" is a fantastic recruiter slogan because it's motivating, but remember, it's your a55 in the sling, not the recruiter's.

I do think that SWA will fundamentally change over the next 10 years. The BOD is different and consists of airline veterans. That's another risk... it could be fantastic. Or it could really fall on its face. I do believe we're gonna see another airframe or three on the property within the next 10 years, but that's just me. BoJo has to perform or he'll be shown the door as he lost his top cover from Gary, and I do like the current makeup of our BOD. I do think that MAX 7 will be certified in relatively short order given the results of the election and the impending war on bureaucracy. I also don't think Elliott is a bad thing at this point - it's keeping people on their toes and we need that.

17000-ish pilots, retiring 500 a year. 40% NB-A is around 4300. That is 25 years to 40% 320A in ATL. If you upgrade early, that is A LOT of holidays and weekends.

But this year 75% AtL320A had the holidays off. ;)