I'm going to be laughing in 6 months when oil is back down again and pulling these nuggets of panikan posts from the past to remind you how silly you are.

You all need to relax and breathe. Get outside enjoy life, this will pass as a blip on the radar

Kirby was banking on massive expansion, he's only pulling back 5% - hardly earth shattering

 

I'm not panicking at all! I don't see furloughs or anything. Just less or no profit sharing and maybe less or no hiring. Not a big deal. Not everything is some extreme thing. You need to chill bro.

 

Fuel prices up, North America less up because we're insulated, Ticket prices up, Delta least affected

All that's the NBD, but there's the nightmare fuel in the broader economy. Global oil people are saying the sky is falling and the politicians have no clue how bad it's about to get. That's what I'm hearing...big spike in crude prices coming soon and lasting YEARS. That's going to lead to massive global inflation and chop the legs out from under an ailing economy. Layoffs across all industries combined with higher ticket prices leads to drastic demand reduction. AAL barely profitable in the best of times immediately files for bankruptcy and goes begging the government for a bailout. UAL sees a competitive disadvantage to not also declaring bankruptcy, and we're all taking haircuts and furloughs.

I don't think all that's going to happen, but that's the toilet bowl of misery we hopefully don't dip to deep into. Right now, we're still in good shape and it's not so much about the direct effect of higher oil, but the second/third/etc order effects within the economy that is going to be the outcome.

 

Doomers may want to check DLNet.

sounds like demand is there and better than predicted revenue.

 

In the short term, yes. Longer term if there are major disruptions to the availability and/or cost of all the various components that pass through the straight (not just oil, but natural gas, fertilizer, helium, etc) then the entire world economy could be in for some prolonged pain.

I don’t think anyone here is really concerned about Q1 or 2 this year. The back half of this year and into 2027 are very much at risk. The worst case scenarios may not play out, but there is certainly a chance that they do.

 

The people buying up airline tickets are the same people with carts full of toilet paper in 2020. It's panic buying and we will have an unforseen drop in demand the next two quarters.

 

shouldn’t you be on a sailboat reading a book somewhere? in no world could i ever imagine caring so much about a past life as you do.

 

I can't see what incentive the Iranians have at this point to stop fighting, absent lots of boots on the ground. With every strike by the US and Israel, there is less and less for Iran to lose.

They only need to maintain a modest capability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the water desalination plants and the oil and gas infrastructure of neighboring countries. The Iranians have a decentralized military; cutting off the head of the snake just makes them more difficult to deal with.

Iran still hasn't deployed their cyber warfare capabilities or the Houthis. I assume they have cells in many Western countries too; it won't take much to inflict significant pain on soft targets.

There is a reason this has never been attempted before.

 

If we just stop talking about it it will POOF! go away…….

 

huh? panic buying vacations to lock in before massive price increases that may likely not happen? weird