Dorfman

There are down, but define way down? I tried to find some numbers but the best I can do is a DOT number that departures were down 1.67% from 2011 to 2012. For 2009 through now it looks like it has been relatively static, considering our over all shrinking capacity.

I do not see MSP becoming a MEM or CVG to much business traffic. It has as many Fortune 500 companies as ATL and profitability is good for the hub. However everything is not roses in snow town.

My guess is that in the end MSP will be a 7er, almost all domestic flying, M88, and 717 base. No more wide bodies and no more Airbuses.

gloopy

Just because a hub/pilot base shrinks doesn't mean its going away. Moving the sims was a separate decision altogether. NATCO was nice but the economics of having it all in one place makes sense. Even MEM and CVG have a bigger presence/route map than any other airline would provide if DL "pulled out".

IMO DL is in a good position at both markets; big enough to offer a footprint that dominates the market and business travelers and still be able to severely punish anyone that tries to poach, yet small enough to not have to run much of an arbitrary hub with needless overlap.

MEM, CVG and MSP are all good markets and I think DL will try hard to continue being the major/dominant player at all 3. The biggest threat IMO to all 3 remaining hubs and pilot bases (in 2 of the 3 cases) will be keeping the airport boards from selling their souls for the mythological "LCC effect" and trying to get DL and the local tax base to subsidize cut throat competition that will result in far smaller route maps that will hurt everyone.

get there itis

No they aren't. It's still #2 behind ATL for mainline departures.

As for the A320 base, MSP has way more pilots per departure than other hubs.

DeadHead

I'm far from an experienced investor, but I believe airline stock prices tend to take a hit (trigger a sell off) whenever said airline announces large aircraft orders. I could be wrong on that.

Plus I think it sends a strong message to both Boeing and Airbus that we are not necessarily in a direct need of wide body aircraft at this point, and holding off until the end of the decade is something we are prepared to do. I personally wouldn't read into it too much.


All in all, I think we are in a good position overall with a pretty aggressive lead to our domestic competitors. Internationally though, that may be another story. Good news to see the Abu Dhabi U.S. preclearance checkpoint apparently getting shot down.

I'm just not interested in hearing about this "proposed wide-body order" being contingent on TA ratification at the end of 2015. The company needs to run the company the way it sees fit and fleet expansion should not be allowed to be used as negotiating capital.

qball

According to DAL Newsroom, peak day departures

ATL-940
DTW-502
MSP-434
LDA-417 (Shows same number for JFK so maybe that's combined)
SLC-260

Doesn't break it down for mainline/DCI

get there itis

DTW is nearly 80% RJs, & has quite a bit fewer total mainline flights. If you add EWR into NY it is very close to the MSP total.

I bet 5 years from now MSP is the #4 mainline hub since DTW will probably benefit more than MSP with 717s & NY will grow.

qball

My guess is MSP will become largely Mad Dogs and RJ's. Fewer Bus and 7ER...almost no (maybe some seasonal widebody intl).

Timbo

Talk to anyone who used to be based in DFW. In the mid 90's it was nearly as big as ATL. I think there were 2,500 pilots based there at one time, with only 3,000 in ATL. DFW had every fleet (except DC9's) based there, at once; 737's, MD88's/90's, 727's, 757/67, DC8's and L10-11's flying to Europe, directly from DFW.

Delta ran away from DFW, just like they ran from the West Coast a few years after buying Western. Then when Jet Blue and Air Tran came on line, they ran away from the BOS/NYC to FL markets, instead focusing on JFK-Europe.

I'm pretty sure the Cabal that is the Airline Transport Assn. (now called A4A) decided to cut up the country into thirds, consolodate, and agreed not to compete against each other; American got the middle (DFW/ORD) UAL got the West Coast (LAX/SFO) and Delta kept the East Coast, (ATL/NYC) minus what they gave to JB and AT.

Doug Masters

I'm convinced the -88s don't have APUs in the summer. Maintenance removes them to save weight during June, July, and August.

tsquare

[QUOTE=qball;1377440]And you are basing that on what information pray tell?

ATL apparently has a very lucrative O&D numbers whereas (if you are talking about FLIGHTS and not based employees, I would wager) MSP does not. Believe it or not, it IS about making money, and the current group of execs are intent on doing that very thing, more so than any of the morons that have graced us with their presence in the time I have been here. And I for one do not want us to fly to places where we do not make money. They have been creative, and diligent in attaining their goals. Now, because MSP is apparently in YOUR paradigm of the top 1 places on the planet we should be flying, I am sure they are wrong in their analysis. I don't want MSP to go anywhere either though because all of those guys are senior, and that means more displacements downstream...

Oh, and FWIW, I have heard Mr Anderson say on more than one occasion that he likes DTW because of it's position on the great circle routes to both Asia and Europe.. so it is probably safe.

Now Timbo and I are still waiting for that E190 base in MCO... the number 1 tourist destination on planet earth... Of course Virgin insists on flying 2 to 4 747-400s there a few times each week.. and we all know how well they are doing financially, don't we?

/rant