I wish I was as optimistic.. on both counts...

What retirements are you referring to. Anyone that was considering retiring did so with the Perp and most of them are gone by the end of March. Just check the retirement pictures in DTW. Many over 60 guys really missed the boat in that they have now realized that they are working for free for 2 years beacuse that's how the numbers work with 9 months of full pay added to retirement pay. Oh well, you snooze you loose. If they offer the perp again I bet you will see quite a few takers this time around. So, I do not see the retirements starting as you state above except the occaisional 60 year guy that will go. I am supprized at the number of over 60 guys hanging around. Hopefully you know something that I don't and I am eager to hear some good news about retirements.:(

SkyTeam had talked about providing "asset backed financing" to JAL. If those assets included MD-90's, why would you go through with the transaction? JAL needs cash right now. There's not a lot of worldwide pent up demand for the Long Beach sewer pipes. Why would you give them cash if they're going to park the aircraft anyway? Even if they continue to operate the MD-90's JAL still loses. It's a small, inefficient fleet that they have to train to and maintain. I say starve them. There are other MD-90's out there and available.

I do hope Delta sees the JAL airplanes someday, but not at the expense of speeding JAL through restructuring. Let JAL park them now, eat the loss and hopefully DAL pick them up later. We'll have enough problems with a healthy JAL and "Open Skies" (sic) in the future.

Slow,

Good point JAL had the potential to be an ally - now they are a business enemy to be slain.

It's questionable whether many of the over 60 guys will make to 63, especially the career long WB guys. I think he's refering to that.

That is true. They have announced that they were dumping them. I cannot recall if they were owned outright or leased. If owned, we would be paying them either way.

I bet they will regret their decision.

Many of their 744's they are dumping have very high lease rates. As I understand it, that is part of the reason they are dumping em.

That is awesome! LAMO.

The problem with that is when the down turns happen in the future retirements won't slow causing a continuous need for new bodies. The faucet may be tightened but I don't see it getting shutoff completely once the retirements are in full force.

Super;
Part of the forecasting is determining the next downturn. Many think that it will be prior to 2012, FWIW, and because of that they need to sharp shoot the numbers.

There is/are diverging results of the modeling, and until they start pointing in the same direction caution will be taken.