I am sure we will be able to do a lot of business in Japan as they recover. They respect us and will realize that we are not leaving them in their time of need.

I am too lazy to look it up, but in 2009 DAL used the NOPAC routes of NWA as collateral to refinance over 2 billion in debt. Those were just the America-Japan Routes.

 

Thanks for the report. Seems like it would be wise to find whatever safe paths can be found to keep up our end of the relationship, and to be there for them. I only have a superficial understanding of the culture, but I believe relationships and loyalty matter to them. A lot.

I'm saying this partly out of self-interest, because I don't want to see flying curtailed, but also because I think that if my country was in shambles, I'd take a dim view of carriers that stop taking people and supplies to and from.





...of course, "safe paths" would mean routes that effectively avoid any radiation, hotels in the right locations, and planes on the ground ready to move people. Not putting some b.s. video in your v-file about "radiation and you", along the lines of that useless "malaria and you" stuff we get for Africa.

 

...assuming we don't leave them in their time of need, of course.

 

Correct. It appears we have a commitment to see the course as long as it does not effect the safety of our crews. I know a bunch of pilots flying the Intraport Operation, and all are saying it is basically business as usual except for the VP's greeting you at sign in!

 

That girl loves props!

Urban Legend, maybe, but we received numerous reports of female passengers showing signs of "arousal" (to be discreet about it) on the E120. There must have been something to it because on the jets that sort of thing never happens.

Either that, or someone told her to close that door on top of the cowling and she's trying to climb up there.

It is amazing what passed for "Delta Flying" back then. Those pilots would have never outsourced their work and the airline would not have tried, even though it was below an RJ, below a turboprop even! Makes a person nostalgic.

 

That was all you, Bar.... it was all you. You were younger then, of course, which explains why it's not happening anymore.

 

A few prognosticators, including a hedge fund manager, are predicting doom and gloom coming in Delta's March 22 Raymond James presentation. Significance is seen in the timing of the presentation prior to the opening of the market.

I've been increasingly aware of a call for management to "do something" to stop the erosion of Delta's share price which has been declining even with fuel prices adjusting down. Economists are saying fuel, if not for Japan, would be about $130Bbl on the coasts. Maybe that is what the market sees, or perhaps they are just concerned about an overall slow down in economic activity, which tends to have a larger effect on the airlines than other entities.

Given that United/CAL, US Air and American have all pulled some capacity (leaving room for the LCC to grow btw) my guess is that we'll hear an announcement of reduced capacity as our mainline jets are retired in favor of outsourced flying in smaller capacities. The mega big bid which was going to allegedly happen about now will likely hold us about status quo. It would not surprise me to see CVG close, but I am not expecting it.

Anyone else got a guess?

 

When I sold my Harley, my wife cried. I dont know if these two posts are related.

 

I always found girls who rode horses particularly friendly.

Yeah, Freud was probably on to something. The way he looked, he needed to be on to some sort of secret.

 

I would imagine the revised guidance will be lower (there's a surprise), and I've had the same thought about the timing. But then again, United is presenting at 11:05 AM, and UsAirways at 10:25 AM. Does that mean they expect good results? ... so I think the timing relates more to scheduling and coincidence than anything else.

My guess is that we will say that we're leading the industry in capacity retsraint, have already announced accelerated retirements of less fuel-efficient fleets, will consider further cuts as needed, are reducing CAPEX to a more prudent level, but will continue to invest in the product. Growth guidance of flat may not do the trick, so we'll forecast down 1-3% (pulling all this out of thin air). Since we go up first on most conferences, and on quarterly results, since we're 84% owned by institutional investors, and since we got spanked two quarters ago by not sounding negative enough on capacity, my guess is it will quite the sobering talk. "Growth" will be a taboo word, and every sentence will feature the term "capacity restraint" at least once.

BTW, you have it backwards: we're not behind the other carriers in announcing curbs in our plans. We announced cutbacks, and they then followed suit. UAL "raised" by saying they were consdiering getting rid of 44 mainline planes, to our 34 DC-9's, but that was a follow-up to our move. Maybe we'll start a new round over Japan, but we're (sigh) not behind when it comes to cutbacks.

I doubt CVG goes, but who knows? The AE will be delayed, or be roughly neutral, as the company stays in a defensive posture.

At any rate, if any gloom and doom comes forth, it won't be a surprise to anyone that invests in airline stocks. I'm guessing the bad news in the stock in mostly baked in, and maybe it goes down further Monday, and up after the conference. I am, however, also guessing the sobering news will ding the carriers perceived as being weaker. I had added AMR stock, but I took the loss on most of it and sold for now.