Total Flame Bait. You know that is not true. But I am sure you will put your money where your mouth is and accept Buzz's offer.

I am sure you have already sent Buzz a PM arranging your wager.

Buzz - Please keep us posted.

Packrat - Will you be taking additional bets?

Scoop

Yuck! Can you make some in Bama colors? :D

I had a Delta jumpseater on almost all my flights the last few days, asked what they thought. The vote is going to be close, I would say it depends on the ability of ALPA to sell it. Which, on that fact alone, should be a no vote.

What we really need to do is delay the closing of this TA vote until AFTER this quarter's earnings report comes out on July 15! I'll bet Delta earns enough in just this one quarter, to cover the entire 3 years of this TA costs increase, or about $1.2 Billion!

Why would we rush into a vote prior to hearing the earnings report?

Great Post Jungle.
I have a few inputs:
• Identify your target audience. FTB had something in a recent post about “low information voters” who see the MEC passed it, and don’t get much further than the money. Find them and let them know why the agreement merits rejection.
• Figure out how to reach that audience. For example, the junior pilots will be critical to this effort. Social media has already been mentioned and is a game changer. Face to face or phone contact is better for other demographics. Senior/older pilots may need some schooling on exactly what the ramifications of the proposed sick policy are, especially with the advent of “big data”.
• I’d stay away from advocating for, or even mentioning the DPA. You correctly identify that this TA vote is on a VERY compressed timeline (and I’m sure the MEC Comm staff have a stack of products “in the can” and ready to go out every few days)… Make the TA your target. In concert with the first point, realize there is a sub set of pilots who MAY oppose the TA, but definitely oppose the DPA. IF your goal is a TA rejection, you’ll need every voter and can’t afford to alienate these pilots with DPA rhetoric.
• POINT PAPERS… Refine the talking points you had above. Perhaps you can get some consult and council from former reps or guys with Comm experience. Then, create easy to understand papers detailing the few worst, “deal-breaker” concessions. Be sure they are accurate, as they are going to be attacked viciously by an opposition that is very well funded (by your dues money), experienced, and fully staffed.
• SOCIAL SUPPORT… Back each other up online and in crew lounges. Don’t let NO voters be marginalized. In line with that, don’t behave in a manner that will allow you to be cut from the pack. Create a unity of message by staying on the point (TA rejection) and ONLY the point..(see DPA comments above)
• Help others to understand “the other side of the trade”…WHY does DAL want an early deal? WHY are they willing to bring RJs to mainline? How will having labor “back on the table” play on Wall Street?
• Finally, counter misinformation and fear-selling from the PRO crowd.
o This is being characterized as an ultimatum delivered by your union: vote YES or NMB hell for years. Is that really true?
o What has been strategically left out of the products coming from Comm? Many of these items are already being identified as pilots do their own reading. Probably another great topic for a pass-out paper would be all the BAD stuff that has been omitted in ALPA Comm products.

Again, great and timely post.

The earnings are well forecast. They always come in reasonably close. Easy to look at the projections. If you do want to push for a no vote the one thing that needs to happen is factual information that is correct. Posting a bunch of BS that will be shown to be wrong will kill any effort. The opening post in this thread is a example.

If you guys aren't on:

Thehangar.forumchitchat.com

please stop by for more input directly from only Delta pilots and some former LEC/MEC reps and Negotiators.

Clemson orange...how much I want 3

While we should be concrned with the MEC spin machine, the TA really only has one positive and that's money. A raise that's significantly paid for by deep cuts in other areas, with a few minor positives sprinkled in here or there for effect, like 15 minutes of vacation pay per day, but no credit! LOL!

This TA is so embedded with deeply concessionary items that it will take some time to overcome the quick sugar high of section 3 pay tables. Factoring out the PS reduction, this is an 8/0/4/3 raise, but even that doesn't include the massive concessions all around. There are numerous items that are worth a percent or two of pay, and some that could devastate the entire gains of the contract, like foreign alter egos with just one man's blessing.

So 8/0/4/3 could easily become 3/-5/-1/-2 if we lose just 5% earnings with a combination of foreign alter egos, E190's and even more 737's to replace higher paying equipment, massive loss of marketshare to AF/KLM while our share degrades to lower paying equipment, massive sick leave harassment and likely many "hostages" taken by the company to further intimidate the masses, lost jobs from the higher TLV, lost jobs from reserves being available early AM on day one again, lost jobs from 75% of OE trips vanishing from the bid and the tricke down effect of that, the effective end of the soft "hammer" we have WRT the pay review with UAL/AA, etc.

This could EASILY become a cost negative TA for us even though our rates do go up.

I say we give the company 100M back as a gesture of good will, and accept only 1.0B in additional value over the life of the agreement and put it into payrates alone. I don't know what ?/?/?/? that would be, but I'm willing to let those numbers fall where they may, keep current book, put the rest in pay rates and gift 100 million back to the company.

They wouldn't possibly have a problem with that, would they? I mean, Shirley the numbers were all costed out 100% correct, right, and Shirley they would *never* do any of the worst case things, right? Right?