I think both ALPA national, and Delta management are content with C2012 for the next decade. Both will make it happen, just my 2 cents....

I can't imagine this TA being voted in. This is what I see looking at it objectively from the outside.

 

mmmmmmmmaybe. Actually I agree with the logic that block hours are better in a downturn, but.... you have to ass/u/me that AK/KLM will downsize (which amazingly enough, they did not do at all in the last downturn which caused the company to be out of compliance). The elephant in the room is that we now have X% of all that flying, are instantly brought into compliance, and then allow a further reduction of block hours. Hmmmmmm I wonder what will happen?

The question I have to keep asking myself is what is going to happen during the term of this agreement. Do you see a downturn? Do you see AAL or UAL suddenly overtaking DAL in terms of profitability and operations? They are both good airlines, but I think we are way ahead in terms of the merger synergies. And with what just happened to USAPA, how will that affect things? It surely won't be resolved in enough time to make a difference during the term of this agreement.

 

Flying will shift from China/Europe to South America, and other TPP countries. We may even get kicked out of China completely due to a looming currency war.

I expect over the next 5 years, American will be making more profit than all the other airlines combined. Delta will still be making $5-6 billion a year though. I see UAL possibly losing money depending on how they respond to the market shift.

 

Probably a fair assessment. American is certainly ramping up the debt though. That could get interesting in a downturn.

 

The truth is nobody knows what will happen during this term. We can only look at what this TA language allows. It allows management unlimited growth in the JV flying. It also allows management to down gauge across the board to lower paying equipment and greatly shrink the number of Delta passengers being flown by Delta pilots. In my mind the question is, why would we ALLOW that shrinking option in our section 1?

Carl

 

What kind of downturn? Our customers(people who fly) are pretty insulated against downturns. The people who get hosed don't really fly anyway. We saw the airlines get creamed during the housing bubble, it wasn't till after that bubble popped, that the airlines really took off. Stagflation is the killer of airlines, deflation is the savior.

Airline debt prevents corporate raiders from coming in, as Delta is becoming a juicy target for a hedge fund to gut the place. Wilson and Checci did this to NWA. I would rather Delta spend billions on product investment, than share buybacks. I think it's hilarious when management says that the JV airlines are a better product, apparently $6 billion wasn't enough to bring Delta up to par.

 

With 850 million shares outstanding, I am not the least bit worried about a Carl Ichan coming in. That is so 80s.

 

Yup. I agree with this.

 

You can buy a company that has $60 billion in assets for $35 billion. Name another company like that. Delta's stock is ridiculously undervalued.

 

Yeah, you think if someone walked in and threw down a blank check it would get filled in with $35 billion? That's LOL funny. I do agree that our stock is undervalued though. I'm counting on it