Although right now you can hold a line on DTW 320 at about 84% where as with MSP M88 it takes about 65%.:eek:

I hate to rain on your parade, but worrying about which category you can move up in the fastest as a new hire is really only valid during a sustained and prolonged hiring cycle (the couple hundred we are taking on now doesn't count as a prolonged cycle). If you are not yet in class, basically no matter what plane you go to, you will be on the bottom until we start hiring again as rumored next year. From my understanding, even the few classes we have remaining to be filled will have Compass/Mesaba flows in them who wil presumably slot in above you if you are off the street.

With that said, in successive Advanced Entitlements, it is more likely that pilots senior to you would be bidding for the A320 holding you down on that list in terms of relative seniority as opposed to the 88 where openings are more likely to be filled via new hires. In the end though, the key is that you have a seniority number and it will move up eventually. I just have a feeling that you will be on reserve for a little while and I wouldn't get my hopes up for zooming up the list unless we really start a big hiring boom.

I know I will be at the bottom, which is why initially it doesn't really matter what airplane I will be on because I'll be at the bottom of any list. I'm just trying to figure out what option would best benefit me for the future. Not worried about it, just trying to make an informed well thought out decision.

Following DelDah's advice and accepting that I'll be pretty junior for pretty long (especially since I'm not expecting to start till next Summer), what tend to be the easiest "off" days for junior Reserve to bid? I'm assuming weekends are tough, but would it be feasible at a Jr base like NYC to hold Mon-Wed, or Tue-Thu pretty regularly?

Yeah you probably could, but keep in mind the max allowable days on for a domestic category is 9 so you could end up with a stretch of 9. You may also be able to do 4 on 3 off if want. Not every commuter likes that because if you do a stretch of 9 you can minimize your commutes. It all just depends on what guys above you are doing, and you'll get the feel for it after a few months.

A quick look at the upcoming retirements will show that we're on the verge of a big hiring boom. (Unless the world ends, we all grow tails or we start beaming people places of course)

Middle of the week is probably the easiest to consistently hold as days off while junior and on reserve, for obvious reasons. I've been bidding Tue-Thu off for the last few months, and have been awarded it each time. I was awarded it for next month as well, and that's as the most junior 320 reserve in MSP.

Since more people would prefer days off around the weekends, it works well for me for a couple of reasons. I can be home with our twin boys during the week while my wife is working, and I prefer to avoid anything more than 4 or 5 consecutive reserve days.

Don't be too quick to count your chickens...... While I do believe DAL is in as good of a position as any other major things can and do go downhill fast in this business.

not counting chickens, just watching numbers ;)

Numbers are good but when I was hired there was a lot based on numbers. Back then the talk was 5 year captains....... For me it was over 12 years before I could hold the most junior PIC position and at 15 years I am holding a reserve line on our wide body aircraft.

I am not saying things will not go your way, but in this business it always seems there is a curve ball here and there.

understood but 9/11 caused a nearly 8 year deadzone in hiring. that caused a big seniority gap. over that same time time frame the company cut all the fat off the bone and slimmed down. this puts the company in a position to grow because theres not whole lot more to cut. Throw in the fact that the RJ bubble has burst and theres a good chance that potential growth combined with guaranteed attrition that a new hire should move up pretty quick, should being key word ;)

We'll see

Of course it can, but Age 65 is right around the corner. Go to Deltanet, Flight Ops page, & take a look at the Age 65 retirements. The numbers speak for themselves.

I think most of us are "optimistically prudent" about our future. I learned long ago to look at the seniority list from the bottom up. Though I'm happy the old geezers are leaving, I'm thrilled to see new blood flowing in.

I checked the DAL retirement numbers.

2010 = 3
2011 = 8
2012 = 19
2013 = 102
2014 = 162

Not alot of promise, but better than the past 2.5 years.

Roadie,

Look at 2017-2033. Remember, these are Age 65 numbers. Most guys are retiring before that.

That's 7-23 years from now...... A lot can happen between now and then. Like was posted above viewing the seniority list from the bottom up is the best way to view where you stand.

Ok Mr. Pessimist. :p

No one is denying that things can change, but even with no growth there will still be movement. It's going to happen. People will retire.

Add that a lot more then 3 people have retired in 2010. Most guys likely won't make it to 65. It's silly for a newhire to look at the bottom of the list and say ok I'm going to be here for the rest of my career.

As long as there is no negative growth, aka, AMR, UAL, and retirement isn't somehow changed to 70.

Yes, but people will STILL retire.

Not a pessimist, a realist ;) Contraction can happen as well, this industry is very cyclic and my hope is we are into a sustained growth period......

No denying the cyclical nature of the industry. It's likely we will experience some form of stagnation/shrinkage again, but short of raising the retirement age again the numbers are set.

I think managements everywhere are terrified of simultaneous mass retirements for many years and they will do anything and everything to mitigate it for as long as possible. The all out assault on international relief pilots they are waging with the proposed FTDTs is likely one of many pillars of their stratedgy. Raising the retirement age even more if they can will be another pillar. Look for increased pushes for cabotage, an increased abuse of interlines (to partially "get around" scope, no matter how proportional) and an all out assault on scope clauses themselves. We can bet they do NOT want to pay that kind of training costs which will be unlike anything they've ever seen AND because its happening industry-wide, maybe even have to deal with upwards pressure on labor costs at the same time. Their biggest weapon against us will be them trying to leverage our own greed and myopia. They will dangle some tasty carrots in front of generation retirement (indusry wide) in an attempt to get us to gut our own scope, go along with a masive reduction in relief pilots, etc. Watch for it.

You are correct in the retirement numbers are set..... But, if there is contraction the place you hold on the seniority list may not change by much as a percentage.

I am glad you are optimistic in your future, but if this country's economy doesn't start moving forward at a good clip we may see some changes here. Also all it will take is another successful terrorist attack on an airline and no airlines future will be bright.

Such is the reality of life, not just airlines. This is something everyone has to deal with. It is what it is. :)

2017-2033? That's some long range planning right there!

As for me, I can barely wait for the AE to close on Wednesday (a week later than planned :rolleyes:) let alone looking seven years down the road for appreciable retirement numbers. :)

No, that's just around the corner. :rolleyes:

When someone is 30+ years away from the current mandatory retirement age 7 years is not far away at all. ;)

Now look how many have actually retired so far for 2010 ;) Those numbers above assume WORST case scenario and arent realistic.

That also doesnt consider medical outs or guys getting fired.

Never hope one gets fired, no matter if they are senior or not.

7-23 years is a very long time in this industry. Look at the heavy hitters like Delta, United, NWA and American over the past ten years. American was nearly 13,500 after the TWA merger, now a former TWA 9 CA is a couple percent from the bottom at AA; there are almost 2,000 pilots with the option of recall. Most airlines were hiring when they furloughed.

Over the last ten years, 1999 to 2001 recession, 9-11, SARs, swine flu, Great Recession (2007 to ????), mergers, scope, codeshares, joint ventures, the 50-seat RJ was replaced by two-class 70 seat RJs, Spirit ended up with killer payrates, SWA doubled in size and rose to the top of the payscale, NWA and CAL disappear, Mexico erupts into civil chaos, cash and paid airplanes is king and extremist cells are broken up weekly. Oh and Apple may hit $300 with record sales.

Of all this, DAL is likely in the best position going forward, but even that position with the amount of long-term debt is difficult at best. My hats off to RA and his team, not sure how he did it but he will go down in history with Crandall and Kelleher as being builders and mastering the uncharted waters of deregulation (that's actually regulated).

My congrats to getting hired in these tough times. My only advice is enjoy the job! However, in order to do that you can't be sitting long call in one state with a family in another. If you can't move your family for various reasons, it will be a tough few years to say the least. Your first shot at block holder will likely be in NYC or in ATL on the 9 when it gets there.

The secret in everything you bid and plan on, risk vs gains. IMO, try to avoid seat locks as best you can; something worthwhile may come along in all the movement.

You know I didnt say that to be seen as hope , i just stated that it happens and thus is a factor in attrition.

the age 65 retirements for 2010 was a grand total of 3 - we've had roughly 170 leave the company so far this year. Some were PIRPs but the pirps ended earlier this year and we still have guys leaving.

True, but over 100 of those retirements were PRIPs. Other than the PRIPs, we're averaging about 6 guys/month leaving. At that rate it will only take 2000 months (167 years) for the rest to leave. ;)

point is that the projected list shows 3 for this year, there will be more than the projected retirement lists show. Also we're lower on the number of retirements right now because the majority that were going to go out early, took the prip so now things were likely to slow for a bit. With that said you know we wont avg 6 a month forever so the 2000 months comment is redonkulous ;)

Point is we're 2 years away from age 65 affects to be over so between now and then we dont know for sure who will leave and when but it will be more than the worst case scenario of everyone going to 65.

Of course, the 2000 month comment was a joke. Having said that, I've followed retirement rates for a long, long time. Historically, at DAL, prior to the age 65 change, and the "run on the bank" exodus of guys fleeing to get their lump sum, we had about 1%/year leave the seniority list for anything other than mandatory retirement. With the current list and age 65, I'd suspect that will be a bit higher. I'm guessing we'll average about 180-200/year PLUS age 65 retirements for the foreseeable future. Based on that, here is my estimate of total separations for the next few years:

2010: 40
2011: 190
2012: 220
2013: 310
2014: 360

Good Post PG. Thanks. :)

My congrats to getting hired in these tough times. My only advice is enjoy the job! However, in order to do that you can't be sitting long call in one state with a family in another. If you can't move your family for various reasons, it will be a tough few years to say the least. Your first shot at block holder will likely be in NYC or in ATL on the 9 when it gets there.

The secret in everything you bid and plan on, risk vs gains. IMO, try to avoid seat locks as best you can; something worthwhile may come along in all the movement.[/quote]


Your statement on long call and commuting is the best single piece of advice any new hire will get. The reserve system never allowed for commuting at all until the last the improvements in more recent contracts. I have consistently noticed however that the least happy pilots are those that commute on reserve. Avoid it if at all possible.
The advice to go to the nine if you want to hold a line might not be good however. The category is shrinking. Richard A in the 16 Sep flight attendant conference call stated he wants the DC-9 50's retirements accelerated. He did add a qualifier that at the moment they don't have the airframes to do that but I suspect if they get more 90's it will happen.

Agree with Sailing here. Have commuted to reserve for the past 2 1/2 years because I can't move the family just yet and until the company finally gets the planes in the 'right' locations there is too much uncertainty to move. I've had three bases in three years and only one was by choice (could be another base in my future if the AE goes against me).:eek:

However, remember this if the family is happy and has a support system in place we pilot types can survive for a little while as commuters. If you move them to make your life happy, you may find out all types of things about unintended consequences!

Agree and disagree with Sailing,
I've been commuting to reserve MSP88B, sometimes resv is not bad. May worked 4 days and that includes Short Calls, June 4 days, July I felt like flying and choose a line, Aug went back to resv for 6 days of work, and I have worked 5 days in Sept.
As a new-hire I was in ATL88 and resv did not go so well. I worked everyday I was on resv. So it can go both ways. Things can change but resv in MSP 88 is not bad right now.

Anybody know offhand how junior (in years) SLC, LAX, MSP or SEA are? Also, how many Compass pilots have received class dates so far since the flow started. Thanks in advance.

I can tell you that I just flew a trip with an April hire in NY.

(7ER in case you didn't know)