gloopy

2020-what though?

There's a big difference in 2021 and 2029.

I don't see how they could replace all of them for many years unless we downsize.

sailingfun

Current firm orders
Used-6 (737-700/800)
A321-70
737-900-54
CS100-75

Total 206 narrow body airframes

sailingfun

We also had the opportunity in this TA to protect most of that flying but turned it down.

gloopy

The only variable from management's side was about 60-80 Fifty seaters. We already "bought in" 76 Fifty seaters that they could keep that would result in no seat count change at all from the 50 76 seaters they wanted. Therefore the only lift in question on their end was XXX 50 seaters minus 76. What is that number?

Whatever it is, that is only the theoretical maximum. Can they sustainably staff all of them for the long term going forward? Probably not, and even if they can, do they want to and will they? Probably not as well.

Therefore the only real protections we could have gained beyond what they are going to do anyway lies within that XXX-76 amount, minus a realistic total from even that. IOW, the original large RJ offer would/could have done nothing to actually grow the network beyond whatever amount of profitable sustainable flying they see a demand for in either case.

By maintaining status quo, there is no way they can cover very much of the network with the XXX-76 amount of 50 seaters regardless. Its just not anywhere near enough lift, even if they can forever staff them all and choose to do so. Therefore, there is little downside risk, unless you believe they will pull down the overall size of the DL domestic network just to spite us.

That's a bet I'm willing to take.