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Old 12-02-2018, 06:35 PM
  #51  
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Originally Posted by Blueskies21 View Post
I must be missing something. How do you know what the costs of those leases are?

Also, mostly unrelated, how did a bunch of pilots get so good at calculating CASM? I know almost enough to be dangerous and it seems to me there's a lot of complex variables involved to get more than a wag.
Every single topic here has already been discussed 50,000 times on APC. SW bore the brunt of the cost to get rid of the extra fleet type.
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Old 12-02-2018, 07:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Mesabah View Post
Every single topic here has already been discussed 50,000 times on APC. SW bore the brunt of the cost to get rid of the extra fleet type.
Well that didn't answer the question.

Looking at Delta's 2017 Annual Filing with the SEC it looks like they've got $1 Billion in capital leases including Flight (Aircraft), and Ground Equipment. Included in that is about $100 Million per year for 2018 and 2019 and going down from there to about $24 million in 2022. They have 45 aircraft on capital lease including 15 717's.

There are an additional 151 aircraft on operating leases including 73 717's (I'm guessing these are the AirTran 717's). Operating lease costs for 2018 are $1.4 billion. How much of that is the 717's? What's a typical lease rate for that type of aircraft and therefore is a "good bargain" or "cheap"?

If you know the answers to these questions, you're wasting your talents in the cockpit, you should be making a lot more in management.

My point being, there's a lot of stuff that gets said here and among pilots that may have absolutely no basis in fact. I've heard the 717's were leased for cheap too, is that true? No idea.

With regard to CASM, I doubt if we're really capable of calculating a useful CASM for most of the aircraft we're discussing, so saying this aircraft is cheaper than that aircraft on this route is pure guessing. There's more that goes into it than someone with an extremely basic understanding of CASM (myself included) is going to be able to calculate.
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Old 12-02-2018, 08:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Blueskies21 View Post
Well that didn't answer the question.

Looking at Delta's 2017 Annual Filing with the SEC it looks like they've got $1 Billion in capital leases including Flight (Aircraft), and Ground Equipment. Included in that is about $100 Million per year for 2018 and 2019 and going down from there to about $24 million in 2022. They have 45 aircraft on capital lease including 15 717's.

There are an additional 151 aircraft on operating leases including 73 717's (I'm guessing these are the AirTran 717's). Operating lease costs for 2018 are $1.4 billion. How much of that is the 717's? What's a typical lease rate for that type of aircraft and therefore is a "good bargain" or "cheap"?

If you know the answers to these questions, you're wasting your talents in the cockpit, you should be making a lot more in management.

My point being, there's a lot of stuff that gets said here and among pilots that may have absolutely no basis in fact. I've heard the 717's were leased for cheap too, is that true? No idea.

With regard to CASM, I doubt if we're really capable of calculating a useful CASM for most of the aircraft we're discussing, so saying this aircraft is cheaper than that aircraft on this route is pure guessing. There's more that goes into it than someone with an extremely basic understanding of CASM (myself included) is going to be able to calculate.
Sigh, you won't find what you're looking for in the Delta filing. However, SWA spun off a separate company called the AirTran leasing company of Delaware. They are due $242 million in sublease payments for the remainder of the term for Delta. That's 76 aircraft leased at $242 million for more than 10 years. They have all different rates, but the average is probably around $25,000 - $30,000 a month, per aircraft. It's probably less however.
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Old 12-03-2018, 02:37 AM
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Originally Posted by 42jeff View Post
I dont know what you meant by this but I laughed my ass off and spilled hot tea on my dog. In my mind you were telling the number crunchers to go outside and get some fresh air
Exactly filler
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Old 12-03-2018, 08:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Mesabah View Post
Sigh, you won't find what you're looking for in the Delta filing. However, SWA spun off a separate company called the AirTran leasing company of Delaware. They are due $242 million in sublease payments for the remainder of the term for Delta. That's 76 aircraft leased at $242 million for more than 10 years. They have all different rates, but the average is probably around $25,000 - $30,000 a month, per aircraft. It's probably less however.
It looks to me like Southwest has subleases of $336 million over the next 5 years. Did you find a separate filing for the subsidiary that breaks that down further?

Regardless, let's say your numbers are accurate, is $25-30,000 a month a good deal for dry leasing that type aircraft? How would you determine that? (Honestly asking to learn)
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Old 12-03-2018, 09:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Blueskies21 View Post
It looks to me like Southwest has subleases of $336 million over the next 5 years. Did you find a separate filing for the subsidiary that breaks that down further?

Regardless, let's say your numbers are accurate, is $25-30,000 a month a good deal for dry leasing that type aircraft? How would you determine that? (Honestly asking to learn)
There is probably always a better deal out there but from what I've seen in the past it's a great deal. How will it compare to future leases? No idea.

SWA really didnt want to park them and deal with the return, and some money is better than no money.
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Old 12-03-2018, 10:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Blueskies21 View Post
It looks to me like Southwest has subleases of $336 million over the next 5 years. Did you find a separate filing for the subsidiary that breaks that down further?

Regardless, let's say your numbers are accurate, is $25-30,000 a month a good deal for dry leasing that type aircraft? How would you determine that? (Honestly asking to learn)
Yes, it's a good deal, but the aircraft were close to $70,000 a month over the last several years. Leasing used vs buying new is a massive TLDR post. However, in the context of my post above, assuming the cost of the A220, vs CRJ900, vs 717, you can assume the lease cost of the 717 is negligible vs the cost of the A220/CRJ. According to the Boeing lawsuit, Delta is getting the A220 at the same cost of a CRJ900.



It appears Delta is selling the A220 as a better customer experience vs the competitor. However, customers don't usually select their airline based on the airplane. Current customers will likely enjoy the aircraft over the CRJ900, but the E175 is just as comfortable as the A220. I think it's a wash there.



The A220 was also purchased before the 2016 oil drilling revolution, which now will likely keep oil costs below $75 for the next several decades.
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Old 12-03-2018, 12:37 PM
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This conversation has gotten way too detailed. Go have a meal or soda with the rest of the crew for crying out loud, get out of your rooms a little (of course that is speculating that there are more than one boom clickers in this conversation).
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Old 12-03-2018, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by scubadiver View Post
This conversation has gotten way too detailed. Go have a meal or soda with the rest of the crew for crying out loud, get out of your rooms a little (of course that is speculating that there are more than one boom clickers in this conversation).
Sorry that there are some guys here who pay attention to the business side of aviation. God forbid people do something other than fly airplanes.
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Old 12-03-2018, 01:05 PM
  #60  
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You’re excused. Thanks for apologizing.
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