Endeavor to Delta
#281
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Port of Indecision and Southwest of Disorder
Posts: 587
My theory is either A) comair or B) drive it down to 81 airplanes and 1000 pilots followed by massive growth. Take for example XJ in bankruptcy and out of bankruptcy where upgrades fell to 6 months once the furloughed pilots returned. Or more notably Mesa and PSA. Airline management has no worry to cover feed when they can simply transfer airframes and the pilots will follow them or that carrier now becomes more attractive to aspiring pilots because of the accompanying quick upgrade/better quality of life.
#282
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2012
Posts: 344
Old news. Actions speak louder than words. Their answer to the commuting problems in NYC is a company shuttle. Not hotels, not parking, not COLA. They have been talking about upgrades for almost 2 years now as way to attract new hires. Talk is cheap. Show me.
#283
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
There are no more airplanes in the Delta system for explosive 9E growth. Even if we get more RJ's, we need 2400 apps to fill a class of 30 at current EtD hiring rates. Meanwhile, UA/AA/LUV, etc, are spreading into all of the markets we can't staff. Without major cultural changes around here, we are becoming Comair 2.0, and Delta is becoming Pan Am 2.0.
#284
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Joined APC: Mar 2007
Position: Port of Indecision and Southwest of Disorder
Posts: 587
I'm with ya, my left hand has callouses on it from swinging gear for the better part of a decade. Delta could fix the problem tomorrow if they wanted to but they'd rather put lipstick on a pig.
#285
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2014
Posts: 511
There are no more airplanes in the Delta system for explosive 9E growth. Even if we get more RJ's, we need 2400 apps to fill a class of 30 at current EtD hiring rates. Meanwhile, UA/AA/LUV, etc, are spreading into all of the markets we can't staff. Without major cultural changes around here, we are becoming Comair 2.0, and Delta is becoming Pan Am 2.0.
#286
:-)
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 7,339
They could shift aircraft from other regionals to Endeavor once the CPAs are up. Possibly some mix of 700/900s from multiple carriers plus the 30 900 options would create enough growth to count as explosive once you get down to 81 aircraft and 1000 pilots, add an ATL base to that and you would have tons of pilot jumping ship from other regionals. I guess we will see here in the next 12-18 months which route they will take.
#287
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,648
There are no more airplanes in the Delta system for explosive 9E growth. Even if we get more RJ's, we need 2400 apps to fill a class of 30 at current EtD hiring rates. Meanwhile, UA/AA/LUV, etc, are spreading into all of the markets we can't staff. Without major cultural changes around here, we are becoming Comair 2.0, and Delta is becoming Pan Am 2.0.
#288
There are no more airplanes in the Delta system for explosive 9E growth. Even if we get more RJ's, we need 2400 apps to fill a class of 30 at current EtD hiring rates. Meanwhile, UA/AA/LUV, etc, are spreading into all of the markets we can't staff. Without major cultural changes around here, we are becoming Comair 2.0, and Delta is becoming Pan Am 2.0.
#289
Not to insinuate anything, but do you have any proof to this statement? From what I've seen it has been irrelevant. Many are interviewing as NOT their "first rodeo" in 121, some even current and past DCI. I know the matrix for all airline hiring seems to be as secret as the coke recipe and the KFC chicken recipe, but I am curious where this statement comes into play.
No matter how you see it, the end result is a DL interview (and future impedence if unsuccessful) to work at a regional that can easily be described as "a question mark" hasn't led to a successful hiring drive.
A few simple changes could change a number of assumptions, but mgmt is dead set (seemingly) on getting to 81 to reset to a healthy sinus rythym. Someone knows something, but yea.... Gotta see to believe at this point.
No matter how you see it, the end result is a DL interview (and future impedence if unsuccessful) to work at a regional that can easily be described as "a question mark" hasn't led to a successful hiring drive.
A few simple changes could change a number of assumptions, but mgmt is dead set (seemingly) on getting to 81 to reset to a healthy sinus rythym. Someone knows something, but yea.... Gotta see to believe at this point.
#290
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,901
My theory is either A) comair or B) drive it down to 81 airplanes and 1000 pilots followed by massive growth. Take for example XJ in bankruptcy and out of bankruptcy where upgrades fell to 6 months once the furloughed pilots returned. Or more notably Mesa and PSA. Airline management has no worry to cover feed when they can simply transfer airframes and the pilots will follow them or that carrier now becomes more attractive to aspiring pilots because of the accompanying quick upgrade/better quality of life.
You can't use XJT's bankruptcy as an example because the era of 2002-2007 saw tremendous growth in regional airlines (and subsequent street CAs to less than 2 yrs for CA seats), while mainline pilots were furloughed by the thousands. And today Mesa and PSA are in different situations. PSA is gaining 47 CR7s from legacy Eagle/Envoy so that's not a net gain. That's a shift from one carrier to another. Mesa has new AA flying coming and that is new, but limited. And when it comes to the DCI system, there is no room for "massive growth." The 88 B717s are taking over old CRJ routes (as it always should have been). The Delta PWA limits the number of 50 and 70 seater RJ aircraft. They seem like a tough group now in terms of protecting scope, so there won't be relief on it to allow regionals to "grow massively."
Exactly my fear moving laterally. Generally, I've had a good life...except when it came to career moves where it seems Murphy's Law tends to apply. So when I look at a regional carrier I look at what is the absolute worst that is likely to happen. PSA could move their 50s to the desert prior to the lease being up slowing movement. CPZ could tell American they are having issues staffing the new American flying (I'm already hearing this rumor) again slowing movement. 9E will cease to exist in it's current form but how that plays out is still anyone's guess. I personally don't think Delta is done messing with/experimenting with 9E in some form. I only wish I had an idea what their plan was when we hit 81 airframes. Point is the regional market is so screwed up that the music can stop anywhere quick. I have friends that chased quick upgrades and it bit them in the butt. Others got lucky. My past experience leads to me to be pessimistic and worry I wouldn't be one of the lucky ones. My decision needs to be careful and calculated considering living in NY and having family that heavily doesn't support my starting over. They don't get it or understand the biz though. If I hear, "Why hasn't jetBlue called you yet?" one more time I'll scream!
In a fully stagnating industry I can agree with this statement. What has changed is how much the regionals overall are going to change in the next 1-2 years. Now I am by no means a 9E cheerleader, as I too am pondering a move to PSA, however it is possible 9E COULD MAYBE see upgrades. The variable is what seat the attrition is from. FO attrition outpaces CAs then more downgrades and vice versa as we shrink. 2015-2016 is going to be a very interesting couple years when hiring really ramps up at all the majors and I think even LCCs as they could see some attrition to legacies as well. I live in base with 9E, PSA would be a commute. That's really all I am holding on to. If down the road, people think they missed the boat on a quick PSA upgrade the music then stops...well slows. What if PSA starts to have trouble staffing. They have 35 200s that could be parked if that happened. Then what, I am a 2-3rd year FO again stuck? See my dilemma Shy? I know you loathe 9E and probably tell me to GTFO and commute, but we can all agree that in say 2 years this entire industry is going to look hella different. To watch the ****** show at home at a shrinking carrier that in 2-3 years will likely not exist in it's current form (however I am unsure what the end all terms are for this place but doubt it closes shop the same way Comair did and also I know a staple isn't happening but I do have a working theory) or bail to a growing one commuting when the industry is in a state of flux. Phone interview for PSA in two days....time to do some soul searching!
Endeavor will not grow, and continue to shrink, so long as you need to be a former astronaut to get hired here. 800+ apps has yielded 10 new hire pilots. Management needs to realize pilots don't care what brand is written on the side of the RJ, pilot's careers are far more important.
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