That is a dangerous piece of ignorance to bank on. That's the most likely scenario for the near future, but I sure don't recommend you plan your career/finances with that assumption.

 

Plan your career/finances at a regional like Envoy? Envoy has a 12th yr CA / 4th yr FO salary cap that is very very disturbing to me.
It seriously bothers me how Envoy pilot contract as a whole has no hedge of protection "when" things get sour. The bonuses will be the 1st to disappear when things get sour. Mediocre schedules, QOL at a 4yr FO / 12yr CA pay cap will remain. New bases, fleet growth, quick upgrade, and $22K first yr bonuses is never a hedge. Those can be stopped immediately at ANY MOMENT. AA and Envoy will kicking the can down the road until the next down turn, or this shortage subdues via lobbied law makers.

FLOW is not a financial or a viable career plan assumption. It provides no career protection because we are not AA pilots. Obviously "Flow plan" was great... until night before Sept 11th 2001. It was catching up nicely... until economic bubble burst in Sept 2008 (7yrs later).