Fixed it for ya

In truth, no one knows if a year flow will ever happen until 6 years from now. In 6 years, we can all look back and learn whether or not a 6 year flow was a good guess or a bad guess. Either way, it's simply a guess.

If I was betting money on it, I'd wager that a 6 year flow won't happen. 6 years is based on a very optimistic set of scenarios. Any number of events could and likely will slow or stop the flow:

A pause in hiring at mainline
Scope relief at mainline
Economic recession
Bankruptcy
War
Another mainline merger
Automation
A merger among the wholly owned companies
Etc.

It may be risky to go to a low cost carrier, but it's equally as risky to wait patiently in line for one's turn to flow.

My advice: Do what you think is best for you and your family, and don't drink the Kool Aid.

My previous responses sound like a real jerk, but 3EngineTaxi has nailed it here. This is really the deal and what needs to be said. I got bashed leaving Envoy a couple of years ago for Allegiant because it was such a crappy LCC and such. At the time, granted, they did not have the current contract and the pay rates are much, much better now along with other areas.

The reason I left was due to what I felt was the uncertainty of the flow. Yes, you had the lost decade and I took that into account. But with the company's history of violating agreements and the way the hiring numbers and flow numbers looked, I decided it was better for me to live in base, Florida (home every night), and to go where I am now. For me, it's worked out great. I've got apps out still but haven't received any calls. Hopefully as my PIC bus time increases, I might get a hit. In the worse case scenario, I don't mind it if I get "stuck" here. Things are not bad and I've got lots of guys below me in the event something should happen.

In the meantime, all you newbies quick to jump on the bashing bandwagon, look at 3Engine's points above. That's essentially why I left.

Eight years is significantly less than the 12 you initially quoted. And yeah, all the tradgedies mentioned above could slow things down. But I could also get hit by a bus, or lose my medical or any other scenario you can think of. Life happens. I guess the way you'll know if you made the right decision is when the guy directly above and below you at Envoy flow. If you're still at Allegiant, then you have your answer. If you've moved onto a legacy, then congratulations.

Sure you've got guys below you should some economic turn take place, but one way I measure an airline to jump to is could they weather a major accident. Should something terrible happen on a flight, would that company survive? Do you think Allegiant could?

Let’s do a little math. 25 flow per month x 12 months per year = 300 flow per year.

2100 Pilots / 300 flow per year = 7 years until flow.

If flows go up or down, if some pilots leave to other airlines or jump around and get hired off the street, if the economy tanks or expands, if if if. . . Things can change.

I would surmise the 6 years until flow would not be a bad estimate, since some will be hired elsewhere or go to AA OTS.

Why is the current flow 12 years with Envoy? They are part of the lost decade when very few pilots were hired. Flow will zip through them quickly, as there are only a handful hired each year.

In about 2 years, will have gone through all the Protected Pilots. Then it will be at about 7 years from hire date to flow date.

Remember just a few years ago, the pilots flowing to AA had 25 years with Envoy. When they hired the flow program did not exist. In those few short years, hire dates have gone from 25 years to 12 years with Envoy.

We have yet to flow 300 in a year. And after the protected pilots flow the number of flows per month goes down.

Damn I almost make that as a 3rd Year FO on the 190 :D

Not possible with those group 1 pay rates. You being withheld from another status?

If you are going to do math, you should at least use the numbers provided in the contract. 25/mo only applies to those hired on or before 10/2011. Then it goes down. Also, AA hasn't run classes in December during any recent years of hiring, so even for the protected pilots the max seems to be 275/year. I agree that in the end we are just guessing, but you might as well make it the best guess. 300/year for 7 years isn't remotely realistic.

After the 10/2011 hires flow, it goes to 35%, or no fewer than 15/mo.
After DOS (12/2014 I think) hires, it goes down again to the lesser of 25% or roughly 15-18/mo (based on a formula that depends on the size of our pilot group).