Not if attrition is happening in the bottom of the list. Training/probie releases, lateral moves for higher pay, short-timers (i.e. mil pilots tagging up while waiting for a major). Attrition outside of flow really stagnates as you get higher up the seniority list. People start to see AA at the end of the tunnel and get lazy.

Of course trainees/probies and short-timers will not move one up in seniority after one comes off probationary. How many of the non-flow attrition are in that group?

My crystal ball says, given all these things, is a 6 - 8 year flow. YMMV

Well what you did was count 2017's flow+attrition and divide it into the whole pilot group. That means you are assuming that 2017's flow+attrition will continue for the next 6 years. Nobody knows exactly what attrition will look like, but assuming that the 824/Protected pilot flow numbers that happened in 2017 will remain in place for the next 6 years doesn't make sense.

Start with the contractual flow minimums, and treat that as best-case scenario for flow. Then add your guess for outside attrition, and there's your estimate. The union has already done that and they got around 9 years for a new hire today.

The union numbers assume no outside attrition but they also assume aa hires 12 months per year and no hiccups. I would assume there will be outside attrition but how much of that is senior to you is all that matters.

Also remember as the pilot group grows they add more flows per month to the group hired after DOS the stated goal is 3000 pilots.

Yes, keep in mind the ALPA spreadsheet assumes AA holds classes in December which historically doesn't happen.

True, but its not likely to get more than 17 per month. We are also limited by 25% of AAs NHs. So about 800ish NHs at AA mean about 17 flows per month at Envoy.

Yeah except they are already not honoring the 25 number due to metering so what makes you think they will honor the 15 a month? Not saying they won’t but hey, they have no problem skirting the boundaries of the contract in this case.

Huh? What are you talking about? The 25 is the metered amount right now and 15 will be the metered amount after the PP group.

The number who flowed was 263 for 2017. At 25 per month, that was equivalent of 10.5 months. What I calculated was 15 pilots at 11 months (there usually is no December class).

The other difference in flow was a class cancelled when the Schoolhouse was backed up with Mad Dog Pilots getting trained for something else. By the time the Protected Pilots are done flowing, all the Mad Dogs will have been retired.

They flowed less than 25 in September (I think that was the month) due to the small class - they went with 50% in that situation. That may have been what he meant.