Attrition
08-27-2018, 11:25 AM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 641
The 20 a month outside of flow doesn’t mean they’re going to the majors. It could be guys unable to take the 2nd year payout, family issues, different opportunities or refusal to get a forced upgrade. I personally know of a middle aged guy that chose to go beck to his old job and refused the upgrade. Too bad we don’t have more information on these attrition guys
08-27-2018, 11:41 AM
#12
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,469
Originally Posted by ENH017
These numbers are current from 7/30/2018, from said newsblasts
Envoy Staffing Ticker
Total Pilots 2401
New Hires in JUL 47
New Hires MTD 0
New Hires YTD 432
JUL OAL/Retiring CA 5
MTD FO Attrition 6
YTD Att. Non-Flow 119
YTD Total Att. (incl. flow) 314
Envoy Staffing Ticker
Total Pilots 2401
New Hires in JUL 47
New Hires MTD 0
New Hires YTD 432
JUL OAL/Retiring CA 5
MTD FO Attrition 6
YTD Att. Non-Flow 119
YTD Total Att. (incl. flow) 314
08-27-2018, 11:57 AM
#13
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,945
Originally Posted by dera
So ~7.5 year flow assuming these numbers are solid (which I know they won't be).
2401 / 314 = ~7.5 years.
Just one problem, 314 is for Jan-Jul (7 months), not Jan-Dec (12 months)
If you ratio it up. . .
314 x (12/7) = 538 projected attrition for the entire year.
2401 / 538 = ~4.5 years
08-27-2018, 11:59 AM
#14
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,469
Originally Posted by TransWorld
You using 314 as the attrition (including flow) for the year?
2401 / 314 = ~7.5 years.
Just one problem, 314 is for Jan-Jul (7 months), not Jan-Dec (12 months)
If you ratio it up. . .
314 x (12/7) = 538 projected attrition for the entire year.
2401 / 538 = ~4.5 years
2401 / 314 = ~7.5 years.
Just one problem, 314 is for Jan-Jul (7 months), not Jan-Dec (12 months)
If you ratio it up. . .
314 x (12/7) = 538 projected attrition for the entire year.
2401 / 538 = ~4.5 years
Anyway, nowhere near the "12 year flow" doomsday numbers some keep repeating here.
08-27-2018, 12:43 PM
#16
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,469
Originally Posted by Erxs
Don't forget to subtract the 100 or so who've declined the flow but not retiring in the next five years from the 2400 number before doing the math.
08-27-2018, 12:52 PM
#17
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,945
Originally Posted by dera
To come up with an accurate number, we'd also need to know how "top heavy" those attrition numbers are. Bottom of the seniority list leaving doesn't help you. But anyway, sounds like the advertised flow (6 years) is not THAT far from the truth.
Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.
Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.
08-27-2018, 12:55 PM
#18
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,469
Originally Posted by TransWorld
Agreed. And don’t forget that as hiring picks up with all the majors, non-flow attrition will likely pick up a bit more.
Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.
Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.
Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.
Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.
08-27-2018, 01:07 PM
#19
Gets Everyday Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: Relaxed
Posts: 6,945
Originally Posted by dera
I would go further and say pilots have never in history seen the kind of movement that's going to happen in the next 5 years. Assuming no 9/11 event obviously.
Back in the 1950s/1960s guys got hired in their 20s directly into the majors, but had to sit sideways and wear two stripes for a few years. (Some even remember one stripe as an observer/flunked.) Course most of their CAs cut their teeth on DC-3s (and DC-2s) and were quick with the sextant to navigate by the stars at night.
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