Attrition
08-27-2018 | 11:25 AM
#11
Line Holder
Joined: Jan 2015
Posts: 797
Likes: 16
The 20 a month outside of flow doesn’t mean they’re going to the majors. It could be guys unable to take the 2nd year payout, family issues, different opportunities or refusal to get a forced upgrade. I personally know of a middle aged guy that chose to go beck to his old job and refused the upgrade. Too bad we don’t have more information on these attrition guys
08-27-2018 | 11:41 AM
#12
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
So ~7.5 year flow assuming these numbers are solid (which I know they won't be).
08-27-2018 | 11:57 AM
#13
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
2401 / 314 = ~7.5 years.
Just one problem, 314 is for Jan-Jul (7 months), not Jan-Dec (12 months)
If you ratio it up. . .
314 x (12/7) = 538 projected attrition for the entire year.
2401 / 538 = ~4.5 years
08-27-2018 | 11:59 AM
#14
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
Anyway, nowhere near the "12 year flow" doomsday numbers some keep repeating here.
08-27-2018 | 12:43 PM
#16
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
To come up with an accurate number, we'd also need to know how "top heavy" those attrition numbers are. Bottom of the seniority list leaving doesn't help you. But anyway, sounds like the advertised flow (6 years) is not THAT far from the truth.
08-27-2018 | 12:52 PM
#17
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.
Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.
08-27-2018 | 12:55 PM
#18
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
Agreed. And don’t forget that as hiring picks up with all the majors, non-flow attrition will likely pick up a bit more.
Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.
Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.
Just a few years ago, guys with 25 years (non-voluntary lifers) and a clean record with the regionals were growing gray hair and getting bald, waiting for the call.
Life is starting to get interesting. Pilots have not seen this since the 1950s/1960s. Seriously.
08-27-2018 | 01:07 PM
#19
Gets Everyday Off
Joined: Aug 2016
Posts: 6,995
Likes: 1
From: Fully Retired
Back in the 1950s/1960s guys got hired in their 20s directly into the majors, but had to sit sideways and wear two stripes for a few years. (Some even remember one stripe as an observer/flunked.) Course most of their CAs cut their teeth on DC-3s (and DC-2s) and were quick with the sextant to navigate by the stars at night.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
