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Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2750126)
Ok, predictions about the next class drop on Monday?
I'm going for 100% 175 with DECs going to OCC. If it has any 145 spots for FOs, I'll buy everyone here a round of beer. Can i claim my beer? |
Originally Posted by crosscheck95
(Post 2751442)
18 ORD 145
the 175 choices were between DFW and ORD they told us they plan to hire 600+ in 2019 and at least half will be 145. said several classes will be all 145. see you on endless reserve. I'm 23 so it'll be fine, long career ahead. |
Originally Posted by crosscheck95
(Post 2751442)
18 ORD 145
the 175 choices were between DFW and ORD they told us they plan to hire 600+ in 2019 and at least half will be 145. said several classes will be all 145. see you on endless reserve. I'm 23 so it'll be fine, long career ahead. |
first....its serves them right not deserves them right. Brush up a bit on your english. Second why be happy for negative things on people? You dont know any of these cadets or their reasons for joining envoy. If your so bitter and against Envoy why are you on the forum for them trolling? I wish more people would stick to facts and less bitter postings over their poor decisions in life.
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Originally Posted by Flyboy5012
(Post 2751459)
first....its serves them right not deserves them right. Brush up a bit on your english. Second why be happy for negative things on people? You dont know any of these cadets or their reasons for joining envoy. If your so bitter and against Envoy why are you on the forum for them trolling? I wish more people would stick to facts and less bitter postings over their poor decisions in life.
Second, don’t create new accounts just to troll someone else. You lose credibility. |
Originally Posted by pitchattitude
(Post 2751461)
OK. First, if you’re going to start correcting people’s grammar, please have your own correct.
Second, don’t create new accounts just to troll someone else. You lose credibility. |
Originally Posted by Flyboy5012
(Post 2751465)
I just joined these forums today as I am about to start with Envoy soon so that is why new account. And Again you sound like a very bitter individual and I am trying to understand why. Either way congrats to all the new cadets today on moving up to Jets!!
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Originally Posted by smtx123
(Post 2751456)
What was the breakdown?
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when recruitment blows through the schools now it’s “as a cadet you WILL (almost certainly) get the 175, life WILL (probably/definitely) be great, and you WILL (this does not constitute a binding agreement) be laughing in Dallas at the old guys getting divorces because of commute to rsv in NYC, now come sit in the left seat of our brand new 175 and get some right swipable selfies.” Not in what they’re saying but more in terms of the impression they want to give. It’s understanable to have some schadenfreude
I would also like to claim my beer from dera |
Originally Posted by NoValueAviator
(Post 2751481)
I would also like to claim my beer from dera
dera, the folks are lining up for the beers! Remember how a while back I cautioned you about using logic and numbers to predict future? We've all been there. |
Originally Posted by Flyboy5012
(Post 2751465)
I just joined these forums today as I am about to start with Envoy soon so that is why new account. And Again you sound like a very bitter individual and I am trying to understand why. Either way congrats to all the new cadets today on moving up to Jets!!
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Originally Posted by Flyboy5012
(Post 2751465)
I just joined these forums today as I am about to start with Envoy soon so that is why new account. And Again you sound like a very bitter individual and I am trying to understand why. Either way congrats to all the new cadets today on moving up to Jets!!
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Originally Posted by FlyGuy2112
(Post 2751475)
It was 18 145 ord, 9 either dfw or ord 175, and 5 ord DEC.
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Originally Posted by havick206
(Post 2751447)
18 ORD 145
Can i claim my beer? All this hiring into the 145 is kind puzzling though. Is the company just putting them there to get warm bodies on the seniority list in anticipation of increased attrition or are they planning for something we don't know about yet? |
They love overhiring into the 145, it’s just an Envoy thing. A year and a half ago they had 70+ guys on reserve daily in Chicago on the 145 for a number of months. Nothing came of it.
Some of those guys are still stuck on reserve in Dallas today lol |
Originally Posted by NoValueAviator
(Post 2751602)
They love overhiring into the 145, it’s just an Envoy thing. A year and a half ago they had 70+ guys on reserve daily in Chicago on the 145 for a number of months. Nothing came of it.
Some of those guys are still stuck on reserve in Dallas today lol |
Or maybe they will displace all the crj Pilots... where they’ll go? Probably 90% of them will take the 175 unless for NYC or MIA. No need to hire many 175 with the upcoming crj displacement.
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Originally Posted by Flyboy5012
(Post 2751459)
first....its serves them right not deserves them right. Brush up a bit on your english. Second why be happy for negative things on people? You dont know any of these cadets or their reasons for joining envoy. If your so bitter and against Envoy why are you on the forum for them trolling? I wish more people would stick to facts and less bitter postings over their poor decisions in life.
Looks like you need a little brushing up also. My mistake was a train of thought error (thinking one sentence and going a different path) while your mistake was more of a grammatical error. Try again Einstein. Enjoy the 145 and the beating while you are here. |
Originally Posted by dragongoliath
(Post 2751658)
Or maybe they will displace all the crj Pilots... where they’ll go? Probably 90% of them will take the 175 unless for NYC or MIA. No need to hire many 175 with the upcoming crj displacement.
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Yep, if you're near STL in the next few weeks hit me up, beer is on me.
I was just hoping to get more DFW 175 guys below me on the seniority list :) |
Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2751666)
Yep, if you're near STL in the next few weeks hit me up, beer is on me.
I was just hoping to get more DFW 175 guys below me on the seniority list :) But appreciate the thought all the same. |
Originally Posted by havick206
(Post 2751685)
Free beers at the training hotel in STL don’t count, ha.
But appreciate the thought all the same. |
Originally Posted by havick206
(Post 2751685)
Free beers at the training hotel in STL don’t count, ha.
But appreciate the thought all the same. And come to think of it, other than the ‘hood it’s in the hotel itself is better too. |
Originally Posted by pitchattitude
(Post 2751694)
Better than the not free beer and food at the training hotel in DFW!
And come to think of it, other than the ‘hood it’s in the hotel itself is better too. |
Originally Posted by BigZ
(Post 2751498)
Yeah, about that....
dera, the folks are lining up for the beers! Remember how a while back I cautioned you about using logic and numbers to predict future? We've all been there. It does seem random, but maybe there is some method to their madness. Look at the flowplan. Almost 1:1 ratio of DFL displacements to DFL new hires. I think they hired 6 more than they upgraded. With more planes coming, this makes sense. OFE is harder to figure out "by hand", because of the large amounts of base transfers. But a quick count shows roughly the same number of OFE displacements and BT's as new hires. So if someone REALLY wants to be Sherlock Holmes. Look up the hours of the top FOs per fleet - and you can figure out their upgrade rate. Add about 2 months of training, and that might give you an idea which fleets need most new hires from the next classes. (no, I don't think anyone should do that - but I bet the company does have the stats similar to that). |
Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2753331)
Beers were on me yesterday at Yesterday's :)
It does seem random, but maybe there is some method to their madness. Look at the flowplan. Almost 1:1 ratio of DFL displacements to DFL new hires. I think they hired 6 more than they upgraded. With more planes coming, this makes sense. OFE is harder to figure out "by hand", because of the large amounts of base transfers. But a quick count shows roughly the same number of OFE displacements and BT's as new hires. So if someone REALLY wants to be Sherlock Holmes. Look up the hours of the top FOs per fleet - and you can figure out their upgrade rate. Add about 2 months of training, and that might give you an idea which fleets need most new hires from the next classes. (no, I don't think anyone should do that - but I bet the company does have the stats similar to that). |
Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2743920)
I added a bit of salt based on a guess that attrition will increase during those 6-7 years. Which is very realistic I'd say, given the hiring needs across all majors.
If I flow in 7 years, I'm very happy. I'll still have ~25 years at American. What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there. |
Originally Posted by wildcat1
(Post 2755194)
What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there. Sounds like I made the right choice then. |
Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2755227)
So what you're saying is you should go to a regional that gets you in and out of class the fastest, and lets you upgrade as soon as possible to start building that TPIC time?
Sounds like I made the right choice then. Exactly! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
Originally Posted by wildcat1
(Post 2755194)
Absolutely a fantasy born of hope rather than realism. It is most likely that we will not go 6 years without another recession. The economy just doesn't do that very often. So, even though retirements will continue, there is no guarantee that American will need to replace them. There is also no guarantee that American will remain at its current level of flying. Delta, Southwest, United, Spirit, Frontier and Alaska are all growing. They are upgrading their aircraft and adding in flight services. Mean while, on AA, you may or may not have entertainment and you are lucky if the wifi works. Everything is unpredictable and customers do not like unpredictable. But I know, when I get on any of the airlines I mentioned above, exactly what I will get. As far as I can tell, American is as likely to go the way of Eastern as it is to grow over the next 6 years. Don't assume the flow will stick around.
What my wondering rambling is trying to say is that hiring through out aviation may slow or stop in the coming years and the flow to American may be nonexistent during that same time. Get up and out now before the boom busts. This is exactly like Pre-911. It took 16 years to recover from that. If you aren't at a major before the next bust, you may not ever get there. Then you continue to give your fantasy born of hope rather than realism about future growth and recessions etc. Pilots have always been horrible in predicting what the industry is doing. Just go to the old posts and see what people were predicting in 2014/2015. Back then the hot topics were that Envoy will never get any 175's, Endeavor is going to die in a few months, PDT and Envoy will merge the moment PDT parks their last Dash (this was a confirmed rumor from a reliable source btw...) and flow predictions aren't realistic. Here's a gem I found right away. This guy, a 2013 hire, would flow later this year, just like they predicted back then. 6 year flow? Yeah right. The current guys flowing were hired in July and August of 1999. That's right, 1999!!! I've done an exhaustive analysis of our seniority list and I just don't see any way possible that we are going to get to a 2 1/2 year upgrade anytime in the next few years. There are over 700 FO's who are going to have to upgrade to make a 2.5 year upgrade possible. So, where are the vacancy bids? We need to get started on this list of 700 plus FO's so we can get the 2.5 going right? Plus we are going to have to get new hires in to replace those flowing right? I know that we are still shrinking but we don't have too much shrinking left before we are "adequately staffed" for the aircraft on property and deliveries. I'm just calling BS on this whole 2.5 year upgrade. I'm not even considering the flow right now it's so far out on the horizon. I come to APC to pick up scraps of info as our union gives us zippo. All I hear on the Envoy threads is RAH RAH RAH 2.5/6. I'm telling you. It ain't true. At least right now. I don't buy these BS "projections." You can "project" all you want but I want to see the rubber meet the road in terms of a clear fleet plan, clear flying allocation and most of all...VACANCY BIDS. I am NOT lateraling to another regional. Sure, it sounds great at Compass right now but what about next year? I'm staying here and putting in apps and exploring all possible avenues. I'm looking at Part 91, Part 135, LCC, anything in addition to my legacy apps. If I get a call for anything a smidge better, I can tell you I'm out of here. The flow ain't happening anytime soon (read 6 years) for us bottom seniority list dwellers son. Realistically, yes, I might flow in 10 years from today. But facts are what they are. Right now, today, it's a min of 8 years to upgrade and 16 to flow. |
Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2755306)
I know this is not a very popular opinion but in the past 4 years, the only one predicting flow rates somewhat accurately has been the company.
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Originally Posted by mketch11
(Post 2755317)
What about the other years?
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Originally Posted by dera
(Post 2755306)
So you say my post was a "fantasy born of hope rather than realism".
Then you continue to give your fantasy born of hope rather than realism about future growth and recessions etc. Pilots have always been horrible in predicting what the industry is doing. Just go to the old posts and see what people were predicting in 2014/2015. Back then the hot topics were that Envoy will never get any 175's, Endeavor is going to die in a few months, PDT and Envoy will merge the moment PDT parks their last Dash (this was a confirmed rumor from a reliable source btw...) and flow predictions aren't realistic. Here's a gem I found right away. This guy, a 2013 hire, would flow later this year, just like they predicted back then. Or this one, for a 2015 new hire. I know this is not a very popular opinion but in the past 4 years, the only one predicting flow rates somewhat accurately has been the company. |
Originally Posted by moon
(Post 2755335)
We've yet to get close to the company predictions.... 9 years isn't 6. We could get close to their old predictions in a year to a year and a half, but they made new predictions around xmas that will be even harder to catch.
Credit where credit due. |
Originally Posted by havick206
(Post 2755337)
Their predictions are spot on or even better for the 2016 group.
Credit where credit due. |
Originally Posted by moon
(Post 2755348)
And again new predictions has 2016 hires flowing mid 2020.
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Originally Posted by moon
(Post 2755348)
Again yet to get there as far as flow. You can't say they are accurate until they are. And again new predictions has 2016 hires flowing mid 2020. Will give credit if it happens and I'm hoping it does happen but hasn't yet.
Nevermind I take all that back.... Ill wait until the union puts out their new projections before I stick with this one. Attrition from the top is going to be key. |
Originally Posted by Pedro4President
(Post 2755363)
It won't happen if they slow the flow to 15 per month after the protected pilots. I bet March 2021 but at best they will be late 2020 like December 2020.
Nevermind I take all that back.... Ill wait until the union puts out their new projections before I stick with this one. Attrition from the top is going to be key. |
Originally Posted by DreadWing
(Post 2755353)
Where are these new predictions?
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Originally Posted by moon
(Post 2755422)
Email from RW. Had a graph showing like a 3.5 year flow in Aug of 2020.
The graph in that email is very realistic. |
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