3 years. Come tf on man

It'll be much faster. This forum is full of people who like to neg as much as they can, thinking their "opinions" will suddenly make the company offer more money when they can't fill NH classes.

I'm sure you've already noticed that the general "atmosphere" is much, much more positive than what you'd get from this forum.

My money is on 100% CRJ offerings


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What's your guess? 2.5? It's not my jet, but I know they have a lot of FO's doing a lot of sitting.

Makes me think they will run a couple final classes just to be certain that it's topped off before they let the training program go.

You’re right, but I’ve heard 10 months from IOE to 1.5 years, but now 36 months...Get TF out. Is what it is. Raw deal, yes. But it’s anyone’s guess and that’s the job. Could quit, but I’m no fn quitter.

Agreed


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They also have a lot of movement.

Dude - you're seriously projecting movement 3 YEARS in advance at a regional? You must be smarter than anyone else.

10 months won't happen if you come in with 0 121 time. You still need 1000 hours 121 time. But 36 months is like saying you'll flow in 9 years. It's the absolutely worst case zombie apocalypse scenario.
You'll get a line in a year, upgrade in two and flow in less than 6.

You guys seem to have a great group of people in your class. Just study hard, and ignore the curmudgeons here.

Tell me more

https://media.giphy.com/media/xUPOqr...E3Is/giphy.gif

Beer is on me if they don't, how bow dah?

OFC currently has more FOs per line than DFW 175 right now. Doubt it.

Cash me outside.

I'll take that beer!


Sub 6 year flow will happen. But not for a new hire today.

Numbers support it, albeit marginally. We'll see January 2025!

I'd like to see those numbers.

approx. 50% attrition outside flow last year. New hire is ~2100 slots from flow. Run the numbers, they're not far off. I said marginally. Any changes and it might jump to 7, but with the hiring increasing at all legacies, I bet it only gets better.

I’d be surprised if it wasn’t better than 6 years. There’s an incredible amount of attrition to be had as hiring continues to ramp up at the legacies and majors for the foreseeable future. Of course, any number of variables could happen making the flow much shorter or much longer. Therefore, keep your apps updated and see what happens — worst case you end up at AA someday ... maybe.

Exactly. But positive comments aren't welcome here, so you need to tone it down.

The higher up you are on the seniority list you are, the more of that 50% attrition will be behind you and not effect your flow. I also suspect the math you're using assumes the flow rate will remain the same as it is now (the requirements actually decrease significantly after the protected pilots are gone after this year).

You still have to get through a huge amount of new hires in late '16 and all of '17. Those earlier guys on that wave will have a sub 6 year flow... some very few might have sub 4. After those earlier guys, the number shoot up. By the time you get to '18 hires, you have to assume that all the predicted attrition is senior to them to be sub 6 years and it's worse after that.

Damn it, come on, use your brain.

If I used the numbers they flow today, it would be a 6 year flow for everyone with ZERO outside attrition. That's obviously not the case.

I told you the number a new hire is from flow today (2100ish).
Add a linear ratio of outside attrition going from 100% to 0%
Use 20 as monthly flow number (which it will be on average).
And you see just under 6 years as the result.
Optimistic - maybe. But the numbers do support it.
I personally think it'll be way less than that, there will be way more outside attrition than currently, but I don't want to open that can of worms here.

I hope you're right. Good for all of us that are already here. You're being very optimistic though. And because of that, I'll take the bet.

Hey, worst case scenario, we can drink beer. Whichever way it goes, it's all good :)

And there's nothing wrong with that!

Being realistic, how much can the training department push through a month? 12-14 tops. If we are done with OCC DECs and only factor in internal upgrades, I'd say that 4-5 slots a class is a realistic number, full class of OFC would just sit waiting for the sim time. As is, the recurrents get pushed back for the lack of the sim slots.

By March there will be around 50 or less FOs left. That's enough to staff 10 ac and as is I think we'll see a full month of critical coverage on the OFC side in March.

That was my guesstimate until I actually looked at the attrition numbers. Of that number you are talking about 50+% left year one and 25% left year two. Trickle after that. It is definitely not "200 year 1, 0 last year, so let's say an average of 100 a year". This might change with the current pilot group having less seniority, making the move easier, but we'll see about that next year.
With the current attrition and flow numbers your class will flow in a bit over 7 years. If it happens earlier, I'll be happy.

I added a bit of salt based on a guess that attrition will increase during those 6-7 years. Which is very realistic I'd say, given the hiring needs across all majors.
If I flow in 7 years, I'm very happy. I'll still have ~25 years at American.

3 years sounds unrealistic but from hire date that’s possible for guys who bid to sr bases on the 145. It will be better for those who make ORD or NYC work but still a major career setback compared to 175 easy street.

“Major Career Setback” 👀

Setback, maybe. Major, nope.

My crystal ball says attrition will decrease in the next few years at Envoy. Captains with 12+ years 121 and a ton of PIC time will be much more likely to leave than the 5 year flow who is barely competitive at a major. Also, they will be much less likely to leave for an LCC knowing American is right around the corner. Not sure why so many people think that majors are going to start hiring everyone with a pulse any day now. The mass retirements at American won’t be much of a factor for street hires anyway considering they get a large portion of new hires from flow, and the majors are much more likely to consolidate fleet types etc than to triple hiring. Folks on here keep claiming that the 9 year flow for a new will really be less than 6. Caution to potential applicants, this magical 30% decrease is more wishful thinking than anything else. The actual numbers are much less. My flow time according to Alpa at hire was 5.5 years. Now after over two years it is 5.3. Even if you disregard the temporary increase of flow from 25 to 29 a month, that comes out to a 3% decrease in flow due to attrition. The effects of attrition decrease as one moves up the list, so you could overestimate again and say that it would double by the time you flow bringing you to around a 6% decrease in flow. If you start at 9 years that brings you to around 8.5 years to flow. These estimates are at least loosely based on actual numbers and contractual requirements. If you want to base things on your own expectations of the company giving away more flow or the majors going crazy hiring low time pilots then be my guest, but just know what risk you are taking assuming such things.

Fair point I guess. I’ll say major if you were going to get hired, just an inconvenience if you were counting on the flow.

That is also a very valid point of view.
My gut feeling is that the 1-2 year of service group will keep seeing high attrition due to longer reserves, low flight time first year etc. 3-4 yos might go up a bit, since they might qualify for the LCC/heavy cargo mins and the future 3-4 yos will be further away from the flow than the 2015-2016 hires, but the 5+ group is more likely to stay put for the flow.

That x.xx "time to AA" that Alpa puts out isn't your flow time from today it's your flow time from hire date. That means in the time you've been here your projected flow date has gotten closer than it was when you were hired. The day you flow it will match your years at the company.

If my post made it seem like I wasn’t aware of this, then I must be depressingly bad at getting my point across.

:D
..........

My flow date when hired was just over six years, now it is just over 5 years. It has come down a year in the past year. I am not a huge believe in the flow, but it does seem to be coming down for some.

Yet another class starting this Monday. Is the 3x classes a month deal continuing for the foreseeable future?

My question is why do people keep coming here? The regional job pool must be drying up.

I think that’s what is ultimately behind a lot of the issues. Anytime you suggest another outfit, it’s either “they’ve got one foot in the grave” or “they’re interviewing for spring of 2025.” In my opinion the “regional pilot shortage” was grossly overstated and we’re entering the era of regional pilot glut. The reality is that many of the people coming through the typical 1500 hour channels are 23 years old, willing to work for nothing and accept very poor conditions just to say they’re a pilot on Tinder and get a shot at mainline. I think Envoy has clued into this, hence steering hiring towards the cadet program.

Class Drop List
 

Facts.......

Nothing wrong with SFS to our pilots until it’s an unstoppable bargaining & recruitment tool then we scream hell. I see a few issues with our pilot group supporting growth increases.

1. The cadets today will take the job for $30,00/yr and no bonus like guys did in the past!

2. We are made to believe the company & union then must support companies growth ambitions, and they tie it to flow! Saying no growth no flow!thus we believe growth must happen for flow to continue working. Especially for protected pilots.

Thus the CONUNDRUM we are in. No incentive for company to increase pay or change reserve rules. Win win for Co.

Am I wrong?