2020 Rumor Predictions
 

Prediction time: what do YOU think will happen at Envoy in 2020?

PBS
12 hour call out
long call
4:12 min day credit

Odds: likely if we implement PBS as this system has allowed other regionals to incorporate such rules.


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Mass hiring just like we had in late 2016 and 2017 since all of those folks on the 145 will be upgrading along side with attrition. Forced upgrades again...

AAG acquires Compass from under TSH and adds them to the list of wholly owneds. With that comes flow based on longevity, and Frontier flow rights are grandfathered in for current CPZ pilots on property.


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No
 

Unfortunately your guess is a bit too optimistic. AAG is not interested in adding other regionals at this time from what I have heard. At the most I would expect CP pilots to be stabled onto Gojet or TSA. Some will say AA is in the works of brining CP 175 back in house however, not necessarily an LAX base though.

I think 2020 is going to be the year that is going to blow the lid off of the hiring uptick at the majors. We may get a look at how exposed and vulnerable the regionals are. If you go look at what all the U.S. major carriers are publicly putting out for recruiting goals in 2020, there’s easily north of 6,000 pilots getting hired this upcoming year.

That said, I think Envoy is going to see some crazy attrition. There’s a few captains are ‘AA or die,’ but most are vying for UAL & DAL — even those close to their flow dates. UAL+DAL are hiring 2,500ish in 2020. You have quite a few that are hoping for Southwest, FedEx, or UPS. There are captains with 2 or more years from flow leaving for Spirit and JetBlue. Senior FOs and junior captains are going to Frontier and Allegiant. You even have the fabled ‘flow jumpers’ making it to AA. All these companies are hiring and the regionals are about to take a hit to staffing. The regionals have lifers and unhireables, the military can only export so many competitively qualified pilots, not all corporate guys want the airlines, and U/LCC pilots with a decent seniority number aren’t going anywhere...

There’s what, roughly 20,000 regional pilots?
Let’s say roughly half are captains, we’ll guesstimate 10% of which (~1,000) are lifers. That leaves 9,000 captains. It’s pure speculation as to how many are unhireable at the majors (DUIs, criminal records, significant training failures, no college degree, notable lack of professionalism, etc.) or have a weak application ... the pool starts thinning out. 2020 is going to be an interesting year for hiring.

https://i.imgflip.com/3kt72p.jpg



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Here’s a crazy thought: if just 500 Envoy captains had applications in with the majors and all of them were hired, that would account for only 8% or less of the pilots at the majors needed in 2020. Crazy.

That’s probably true, but even if we did get Compass’ 175s, how are we going to staff them? If attrition goes up like some are predicting, they might have some major issues.