No he isn't. Math is wrong there.

Well who cares? It’s not the advertised flow that recruiting likes to throw out there and it certainly could be 10 years. We have no idea but the point being made is that it is long enough away that you can’t just bank on it being there. Anything could happen in the next 7-10 years.

Truth is somewhere in the middle. Whoever sits still and waits for it is a fool.

so you already went from 10 to 9..... you’re still leaving out outside attrition... look man, we get it. You have an agenda. But if you can’t be honest about your numbers how can you expect anyone to have a discussion?

will you go on record and declare that envoy will experience outside attrition of exactly zero pilots over the next 10 years?

It's not just outside attrition, it's that he doesn't understand the math.
2400/20 is useless math, because that's not how it works.

I don’t care, especially. The only reason I am involved in this conversation is to call out FUPM’s wrong info.

either way, if a new hires intention is to stay for the flow, they are (generally) doing this career wrong. I get that it is some people’s only option and that’s fine. I’m certainly trying to avoid having to rely on flow. the benefit of the flow was not the discussion.

The math is fine. Divide the number of flowing pilots by the number of pilots flowing each month and you have the number of months the last pilot should wait to flow.

Some pilots will leave (resign for greener pastures hopefully) instead of flowing, meaning the number you get here is a bad-case scenario where no one senior to you gets out. However, it is not a worst case scenario. There are lots of worse ones. Here are some plausible scenarios that are worse: AA stops doing classes for awhile. Envoy has to meter the flow to staff the airline - in a situation where attrition is pulling your flow time down significantly, this is very likely in my opinion. Maybe you raise the ire of management somehow and they withhold your flow as an example to the other peasants. A reorganization occurs at Envoy or AA that reduces or eliminates the flow. You can go on forever thinking of these.

I've noticed that a lot of voices here basically just post "actually, that's wrong" or "you left out some important details" to attack others' credibility and never share the "correct math" or the "important details." It makes no difference to me, but the real answer is that no one really knows. Projections have been made based on certain assumptions, and the closer you are to flowing, the more likely reality is to match the projection. That's it. Everything else is a spin job.

Math is fine. I haven't seen the correct math here.

The 2400/20 is not correct.
Neither is the 9.9 years because the list has a bug.
Using those as your source is just wrong. Correcting those obvious errors is not a "spin job".

Alright, drop a time to flow for the most jr pilot on property and correct it. Anyone can say a projection is inaccurate, and really you aren't saying anything. We know it's inaccurate. That's why it's a projection. You don't seem to have comprehended my post at all.

So show us the correct math and flow times please.