Originally Posted by But seriously (Post 3176243)

I have to disagree. A bunch of people just flowed to AA. They weren’t stifled from going anywhere else, they just couldn’t get on. I know the majors were all hiring, but there were still only 2-3000 spots per year at the peak, and that’s just not enough for everyone who wants one. Having flow as a backup is not worthless. Hundreds of WO pilots a year got to the majors using it and there’s no guarantee they could have gotten on when they did without it. Quite the opposite in fact.

Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3176259)

Not saying it is worthless, and yes, some people who would not otherwise EVER make it to the majors might make it because of flow. But hasn’t AA limited it to a max of 15 pilots a month? And I thought Envoy had about 2500 people on their own seniority list, so what the newbie deciding on a regional is actually looking at is this:

Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.

Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.

But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.

Originally Posted by THKooj (Post 3176270)

We had a 5.5 year flow before all this. On the other side it will still be 5.5 years MINUS the time spent from when the flow stopped until it restarts.

Originally Posted by Finessed (Post 3176311)

When American Airlines inevitably goes under and everything is wiped out, including the flow, will you finally give it up?

Originally Posted by THKooj (Post 3176270)

We had a 5.5 year flow before all this. On the other side it will still be 5.5 years MINUS the time spent from when the flow stopped until it restarts.

Originally Posted by TransWorld (Post 3176319)

So you are predicting AA will declare Chapter 7 bankruptcy, which means liquidation and going out of business?

There are a lot of things that can be done in Chapter 11 reorganization to defer bond payments, convert bonds to preferred stock, restructure or cut wages for employees (it has happened before). I predict Chapter 11, which is not even a certainty, a much more likely scenario that Chapter 7 liquidation.

Originally Posted by Finessed (Post 3176348)

They have to much debt along with cash burn to convince any judge into chapter 11. A full recovery by June-July would save them initially, and if needed they could file chapter 11.

Tbh, I’d wager we don’t have “normal” passenger loads until 2022. American will not survive that long if that’s the case. Inevitably they’ll be forced into chapter 7, game over.

Originally Posted by Excargodog (Post 3176259)

Not saying it is worthless, and yes, some people who would not otherwise EVER make it to the majors might make it because of flow. But hasn’t AA limited it to a max of 15 pilots a month? And I thought Envoy had about 2500 people on their own seniority list, so what the newbie deciding on a regional is actually looking at is this:

Over the last 10 years AA hiring has averaged about 250 a year. Right now they are over staffed by 300 pilots even with 1500 on furlough due to their aircraft fleet consolidation. With age related retirements, let’s say they boost that number up to recalling 750 furloughed pilots a year if international flying recovers as quickly as domestic flying (which it likely won’t) that’s still two years and four months before the FIRST guy can flow. So starting in March of 2023 the first of the 2500 people ahead of a new hire will flow, and assuming there is continuous hiring EVERY MONTH that will be 180 flowing a year. Now even if 700 people ahead of him/her either don’t ever flow (too senior and old to give up QOL at the regional to sit reserve FO at AA) or get selected to go to a major outside of the flow, that’s still ten years - March of 2033, before the newbie at a WO can expect to flow.

Now if for geographic reasons it makes sense for someone to choose an AA wholly owned over another regional they ought to do that - not because of flow, but because commuting is a pain, commuting to reserve is especially a pain, and commuting to a regional is particularly bad. But choosing a regional because of flow? Right now you are looking at 10-12 years. If you have no college degree and no intention of getting one, or have a spotty training record or mishap history that would make it unlikely you would get an offer from a major any other way...well, maybe flow would be more of an inducement.

But for Joe Average guy breaking in to the 121 world? I don’t see it being a serious factor.