from alpa email today “The last two months have seen a roughly 300% increase in our attrition.”

I think that is yet another example of if it’s cost neutral, Envoy will choose the option that screws the employee. And even if it costs the company a bit, they will still choose the option that screws the employee.

I didn’t realize that RW was still perpetrating the life AFTER they got you in the door. But I had always questioned their math. As dera pointed out it’s pretty clear that when they are hiring more than flowing, the length of time to be able to flow will go up. Even if they get a pass on the year and a half now it will be without any hiring at AA due to the ‘Rona, there has never been, nor will there ever be any way that Envoy can make ANYONE, including the 2016 hires flow in five years of AA hiring. That’s a lot of people they have to move out before they can flow any of the 2018-19 hires with 60 plus a month in class. And the number of flows per month with that group of pilots only decreases and will likely be even lower than most anticipated as Envoy has shrunk and shows no real indication that it will grow any time soon (if ever) back to pre pandemic levels that flow numbers are predicated on.

I came here with eyes wide open that the flow wasn’t going to be what was sold to us, but I assumed it would be somewhere between what the company told me and the union told me.

but ya, like you mentioned earlier, I wish there could be a class action suit. I know of at least 30 that can say that a 5 year flow was promised by RW face to face

Plus let’s us not forget, the fabled LAX base coming “anytime” now lie. 😂. He loved pulling on new hires hope and wishes.

Well that was a good email. Nobody can say that ALPA told everyone to just hang on and ride it out.

That one must’ve been before my time lol

What did the email say?

leave. Fast. The flow is worthless and 15 years for 2019 hires

more specifically

”the most junior pilot at Endeavor may expect to flow to Delta in about 7.5 years while -the most junior pilot at Envoy is currently projected to flow more than 15 years from now.”

hope you guys have your Endeavor apps out lmao

Might as well get a pool going on how many guys actually flow before that piece of mgt gamesmanship gets whacked in arbitration.

Strong assumption there. Remember, arbitrations are not fair game under RLA.

Under RLA, the burden of proof in grievances is with the association. And they need to show not that they are right, but that the company is wrong.
The company is always right, unless proven otherwise.

Perhaps, but don't underestimate how much this ticked off DALPA.

After seeing how arbitrators operate, I can just say it is far from a certain win for DALPA.
Envoy has a pretty unpopular thing in their contract because of an email that had a line highlighted in green, even though the language is completely clear to the opposite.


It's just a d*ck move from their management. They know time is on their side, and they can operate the extra RJs through the summer with no penalty by offering this carrot to Endeavor.
I hope it doesn't turn into a situation, where the flow pilots are essentially blacklisted at Delta. I hope they are smart enough to differentiate EDV pilot group, and their management.

Question for someone just now starting training and hoping to maybe land at Envoy or PSA I’ve always heard the flow should be used as a last ditch resort. Get your hours, get in and get out. With flow possibly being at 15 possible years Is this still not the same thought. I mean I know captain upgrades might no longer be 2 years like In the past, but a 5th year captain makes more than what I make at my current job and I’d rather be getting paid to fly than paid to work on airplanes myself.

I like to explain the flow as smoke and mirrors.

Keep in mind also the flow is not guaranteed. The only pilots who had a guarantee flow were the protected pilots. (This is true at envoy, I can’t attest to PSA or Piedmont)

Choose the regional that is the easiest commute and or drive to where you live.

Reserve at a regional is not fun, so keep that In mind when selecting an employer. We are getting to a point again where qualified candidates will be able to choose what regional they want to go to.


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Even when you show that, are 100% in the right, and show the companies errors and mistakes, you can still get an arbitrator that for whatever reason rules against all common sense, and even against prior precedent.

it’s not going to be 15. It was approaching the 5 year mark as Covid hit. With the shortage and the hiring boom at the time your finishing you may be skipping regionals all together and going straight to an LCC. Trying to plan for 2-3 years before you’re even in the marketable training and experience range level is way premature. It’s a good thing to keep an eye on the industry, but don’t become hyper focused on anything. If the regionals are still around it will be the wholly owned ones since they’re just cost centers, not real companies that must make a profit or die. Oh, and don’t compare an RJ CA salary now to what you’re making now, compare it to other professions dealing with 50-300 lives a day.... it’s way underpaid.

You, as well as any, know that the five year flow is a fantasy. I know you’re not still at Envoy so I know you haven’t been reading Ric’s propaganda and don’t believe it anyway.

If Covid hadn’t happened, there WOULD have been a VERY small group that would have flowed in five years. And after that it is a mathematical impossibility for it to continue. Hiring more than flowing leads to longer and longer flow times.

The best chance was for the early 2016 hires to go in 2021.

Instead we will get 2013 hires going in late 2021.

Envoy hired 1,000 pilots in 2017, so anyone beyond that bubble flowing in 5-6 years is mathematically impossible. It could take 4 years just to flow the 2017 hires alone.

I get almost everything they send of importance, indirectly of course. Legal action can take years, so careful documentation of events and activity is important. Example, they used to get ****ed and vindictive when I'd say things like calling them stupid for closing Miami and New York and that they'd have to reopen NY within a year, and Miami within three. They used to get ****ed and vindictive when told their policies were leading the operation in an unsafe direction.... (we see how that turned out), they got ****ed over me telling guys to protect their tickets because they had wrongly suspended with pay and removed a crew over bug splatter that a ground crew had reported as them ignoring a bird strike....
Litterally 80% of the MEC at the time told Pedro when he was new in 2013 that when Winkley left VP of Flight Ops, not to put RW in that spot. We told him then that he wasn't the right guy, that he'd sacrifice safety for profit, was too egotistical and unwilling to admit and correct mistakes, that he takes things personally and is very vindictive..... yep, they ended up right where we told them he'd take them.

The flow was approaching the 5-5.5 year mark when Covid hit. If Covid had not hit, Envoy would have been flowing pilots at about 5-5.5 years time in service.... then, with the newer slower flow, those times would start climbing again.

They will do what they have to in order to keep the flow at or around 5 years. Do not forget attrition will pick up to a furious pace as the shortage worsens also, many more will jump ship to other carriers long before flowing. Regionals like Gojets will be toast and their pilots left to recycle themselves. In fact, times will get tough for all the contract/vendor companies. They have to generate a profit or go bankrupt. They can't afford to keep raising pilot pay. The WO carriers are run as cost centers more than functioning airlines meant to generate a profit. As a result, they can throw increased flow for free, and raise wages to run the WO at a loss, while still generating profits at the mainline.

The regional industry will contract more over the next several years. Pilots will be going directly from University/College straight into an LCC. Look at Frontier, they are already taking Embry Riddle graduates straight from school. It's happening already.

IDK exactly what the relationship between Frontier and Riddle is but I don’t think this is going to be a major shift in the industry. All indications is this is a carrot to attend Riddle and there will only be a small number hired this way. Not like the days of old at places like Mesa Pilot development where you were pretty much guaranteed a job after you spent your money there.

It’s most likely a response to the Sun country and UND relationship that started back in early 2018. Flight instructors who were accepted into the sunny program had to build 1,500 hours total time instructing for the University instead of the 1,000 restricted and off to a regional.

That definitely sounds like a pay to play and money maker for the school! Pay for an extra 500 over priced hours to get a job at a marginally better carrier.

What’s the cost of an extra 500 hours verses going to a regional six to twelve months earlier? Just like anything other than a top tier flying job, it has to be the right thing for the individual. Even then, let’s face it, FedEx and UPS are two of the highest paying career carriers, but a lot of folks don’t want to do it because it’s not a good fit for them.

Yea but unless you show up with Turbine PIC time, by the time your eligible to upgrade LCC/ACMI cargo are looking at you.

8-10k a month as an RJ CA, with 2-3 years of your 7 year flow behind you. Or LCC/cargo FO with zero turbine pic and likely 0 chance of ever leaving the LCC/cargo for anything better until you upgrade there.

Decide if you want to be an FO at legacy or CA at an LCC/cargo, those can likely happen around the same time in your career.

Getting hired at a legacy is difficult with only 1,000TPIC if you started at a regional with all single engine piston civilian time. Plenty of people jump the flow or get hired at Delta, United or FedEx. Plenty start at a regional with more the 50 hours multi piston, or have an inside track, or benefit from affirmative action, or got involved in the training department.

1,500hour flight instructor who upgrades at 1,200 company time has, 2700tt and after 1,000pic has 3,700tt and really isn’t very competitive at a legacy.

It takes 5 or more years from date of hire to get 1,000TPIC if you start with 0 121, so your really only 2 years away form the flow buy that point.

No flow program can sustain 5 years from date of hire for long.

Not at all, guys who wanted this would just sit around and instruct for an additional 500 hours. Nobody was really interested in this and Sun Country lowered the mins to 1,000 and some people began showing interest, though its still not a super popular option I only know a hand full of people who applied. And even though Sun Country said they were ready for UND guys I don't think their training department was prepared for pilots with zero turbine experience, some folks rose to the occasion and other resigned, personally I think they'd need to adjust their expectations for programs like these to truly be successful. Regionals know they're getting hiring fresh CFI's and the success rates are much higher.

Assume that there is no flow at any airline. Apply accordingly.