Should I stay or should I go?
 

Hey fellas,
I need your input.
6 months to flow and got a CJO from Delta.
I live in Chicago, can relocate to one of the Delta bases in a couple of years, but I don’t really want to.
Accepted the retention bonus.
Should I stay or should I go?

Go. Don’t even think once.

What do you want to do with the last third of your career at AA/DL? If you want to be senior on reserve flying some widebody you should really ask yourself if you're going to regret having 1200-1600 pilots senior to you at DL down the line. On the other hand, if you're staying in the narrow body aircraft it probably wouldn't hurt so much. It would be much easier to forget about it in the new BMW you show up to class in at AA.

That’s tough, I’d say stay for the flow (and no I’m not drinking the kool aid, envoy and AA are two entirely different airlines contrary to popular belief) only reason I say stay for flow is one you’re only six months away, but also you already use many of the same company procedures and applications American uses as well, and honestly operate much the same way American does (which could definitely help ease the learning curve) and you also already live in an American base (and yes I know you said you can relocate to a Delta base). However at the same time all airlines have their own issues and there is certainly no perfect one, but I know of a few Envoy (and honestly there’s probably been a lot more than a few) guys/gals that left for Delta so honestly it comes down to where do you want to spend the rest of your career? (Also for what it’s worth, I think it’s well known Delta has much better profit sharing)

6 months is an eternity in this industry. Anything can happen. And with the situation in Europe seemingly devolving by the week and a looming recession of unknown length/severity, I would go get the mainline seniority number ASAP.

American is going to have a rough several years ahead. And I have exactly 0 faith in APA securing anything close to an industry-leading contract for the pilots of American. Who cares if you have more relative seniority if it’s at an airline with an inferior contract and massive issues? Delta will still leave a pilot very senior by the end of their career and they’ll have made far more money along the way.

Also, everyone is making assumptions about AA and Delta widebody flying based on the numbers out there as of today. What if Delta grows its widebody fleet and AA shrinks theirs?

Definitely don’t recommending staying at the WO a day longer than you have to. It’s a sinking ship. Go to DAL and keep working on that United application.

Take the Delta job, update your United and AA apps to show Delta and you’ll get invites. If it’s only a few months to get a class at those two jump, if more then I would stay at D. This racket is musical chairs bro, don’t be at a regional when the music stops.

How much longer do you have to fly?

But seriously, taking advice from strangers from the internet on a potentially multi-million dollar decision???

Seriously? 6 months to flow and you are thinking about leaving to go to Delta? Really, really bad decision IMO.

If you had any doubt, this post is definitely the best reason to go to Delta!

Run the numbers and make your choice.
you are no better off at aa than delta when your a new hire. Plus there contract if I'm not wrong is way better than aa's.

Is this a serious question?
https://i.ibb.co/XjY2ptz/8-CCBD19-E-...-C84-C11-D.jpg

Do you have the vaguest idea what the interest rate will be on a company rated B- when they have to refinance $46 billion in debt? Even before the Fed started pumping up interest rates AA was paying up to 12% to borrow money. And AApaid $1.8 Billion last year for just interest on their debt - when they had a lot less debt than they do now:

https://i.ibb.co/MRRGxHm/3817-A8-E2-...526971-CC7.jpg


What do you suppose they are going to be paying next year? And the year after?

Now compare their net income - even before the pandemic - to their current debt interest.

https://i.ibb.co/HCJjYC2/41-EA7546-8...C3-DA10-EC.jpg

So what does THAT tell you?

Paying back the money is no longer a “big deal” since the tax situation as far as I know was resolved. Now you pay back whatever you actually got. I would not hang around, you got a winning ticket, go cash it in.

AA 787 FO here, Living in base and not commuting is HUGE...stay and keep applying to UAL or be a widebody FO in 2 years at AA...totally different part of the airline. That being said, if you want to move to another Delta city....go to Delta.

I've been here 3 years at AA... Where can I hold widebody fo?

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You're at AA as a 787 FO and your first (and only) post is to tell someone to stay at Envoy and not take a CJO to Delta??

I think cr700 just created another account because no one believes what he says.

Delta seems to be the better company if all else is equal and you fit in w/ their fd culture.

I jumpseated once on AA, where the CA was an America West guy, and FO was a CLT US Air guy with an earlier DOH than the CA.
I'd take Delta culture over that "culture" all day long.

At United Airlines.

So how is each airlines fd culture compare? My only personal experiences are from the AA jump and its mostly been pretty alright. Hows Delta and United?

They're all the same. Bunch of weirdos, bunch of cool people, bunch of hardcore MIL guys, bunch of former regional dudes and dudettes.

United > AA > delta imo but everyone's experience is different and obviously this is a generalization/stereotype and there's tons of exceptions.

There are a lot of tools working at Delta.

Good to know. I figure all this turnover will change all 3 in the long run as well. Im still going to whoever actualy wants to interview/ offer the CJO.

https://youtu.be/kQFeZRNNL6U

I don't see how this is even a question, go to Delta immediately.

Without even arguing DAL or AA…
Six months is huge. Go to DAL.

A LOT can happen in 6 months:
Downturn, bankruptcy, pauses in hiring due to training bottlenecks, more Boeing technical issues with deliveries or groundings, shenanigans from ENY or AAG regarding “interpretations” of the flow language, ENY divestiture, WO merger, temporary loss of medical, or a million other things.

None of those are likely, but none are impossible either. Take the bird in the hand.

This 100%. Ask the guys who started class the week of September 11th, 2001. Leave and don’t look back. We work in a volatile industry during what has been one of the most historically volatile times in our recent history. Leave and don’t look back.

American is in for a rough few years at best. They’re poised to lose a ton of market share as their regional feed rapidly collapses (regionals make up roughly 40% of their daily departures in their most profitable hubs) and they have no plan to mitigate that shrinking. United and Delta have both enacted/articulated plans to mitigate this threat to their revenue. American’s business model seems confused, it’s leadership adrift in an endless sea of complex problems, and it is the least profitable of any of the legacies during good times. It will continue to bleed cash and likely face a restructuring at some point.

American Airlines wasn’t consistently making money BEFORE COVID. Now, with a debt load of $40+ Billion, Rising interest rates, and failing regionals, they are unlikely to do even that good. Go with Delta.

https://i.ibb.co/ZmfT39R/BF060612-CB...1-EF83-CF5.jpg
https://i.ibb.co/h7sbd5T/8088722-C-0...-E0-BCB7-B.jpg

What a tool bag. Poor FO

Apparently the FO is the one who recorded it. But this video just goes to show the god complex some of the old delta’s have (had). I’d like to think most of them have retired by now

Exactly this! There are great people to work with and terrible people to work with at ALL the airlines. Really you need to make the decision based on where you want to live. Commuting to work sucks! If you have your life established in an American/United base there is great value in waiting to see if you can can get a job with one of them and not uproot your established life. 6 months is a long time and a decent amount of seniority above you when you eventually flow. But the hard cost of commuting to work, staying in a crashpad, offset by getting to keep your bonus money is something you need to ultimately weigh against your bird in hand offer from Delta. Good luck with the decision!

Easily lose 1000 numbers waiting. Email HR and say you have a Delta offer and want to interview stat for AA. If no joy, go to delta. I work at AA.

The culture here is changing rapidly since we’re retiring so many and post merger guys can upgrade everywhere except Phoenix.

Screw it. Just go to Delta. From AAs first quarter earnings report:

.

That’s another $1.6 billion to add to AAs already $40+ Billion dollar debt load. Right now AA short and long term credit is rated B- in the bond market. Typical junk bond credit - even backed up by assets, commands a premium of over 8% in the market today. What that means is that AA is going to have to generate positive cash flow to pay off that additional debt, but until they do their interest expense for debt service is going to be another $128 million (that is, 8% of $1.6 Billion) ANNUALLY than it would have otherwise been, and it was already approaching $2 billion last year. Basically, that’s going to be $2 Billion annually going out just to service INTEREST EXPENSE on the debt, before you put a dime into actually paying it off. And as time goes by, as you are unable to pay that debt off, you wind up refinancing it AT CURRENT RATES, which are a lot higher than those in effect when the original bonds were sold. AA is right now paying $2 Billion annual interest on about $43 Billion, an average rate of only about 4.5%. Refinancing that at 8% or more (the fed is raising interest rates) is going to be even more painful.

Jump to Delta.

Ditto. What a complete narcissistic tool. That entire resume rant is a giant eye roll. Can’t imagine his ego fits in the cockpit. Poor FO is right.

Leave asap

As previously discussed, getting a life might resolve some of your issues. Getting a hobby would be a good start.

Unable to refute a single word, “BigZ” goes for the ad hominem attack.

Do you even know how to read an annual report?

https://i.ibb.co/q9LLRG6/A1-F15871-9...715-EA1-C0.jpg

I don’t put these out, AAL does:

https://s21.q4cdn.com/616071541/file...Financials.pdf

Should I stay or should I go?
 

Still gonna need pilots. Ok so no new contract? Sucks . Whatever then. Hope the OP remembers to cry while sitting reserve or driving to work in base. Leverage the hell out of a CJO for AA early and try to get to United, or just chill at AA. Live life happily.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You are not a student of history I take it? How old were you 11 years ago?



https://i.ibb.co/sgzFwSq/CB5-ADEC3-4...-EAB0047-A.jpg


https://i.ibb.co/hYhC3B4/C1409109-B5...0-BEC74-E3.jpg

AAs shareholder equity also took a dump by another 1.6 billion. They are almost 9 billion in the red now. They need to provide 9 billion in profit before they provide any value to shareholders. Pretty steep hill to climb. DL and UA are over 10 billion better off. That's a large number.